Section (3)

Lecture(3) “Introduction to
Probability Theory continue“

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Basic Properties of Probability
1. The probability of a sure event or certain event is 1.

2. The probability of an impossible event is 0.

3. The probability of an event E is a number P(E) such that 0 ≤ P (E) ≤ 1. Probability is always a positive number.

4. If A and B are 2 events that are mutually exclusive, then P(A⋃B) = P(A) + P(B).

5. An elementary event is an event having only one outcome. The sum of the probabilities of such events of an
experiment is 1.

6. The sum of probabilities of an event and its complementary event is 1. P(A) + P(A’) = 1.

7. P(A⋃B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A⋂B).

8. P(A⋂B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A⋃B) .

9. If A1, A2, A3 ,………, An are mutually exclusive events, then P(A1 ⋃ A2 ⋃ A3… ⋃ An) = P(A1) + P(A2 ) + ………. + P(An)

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Approaches to
Assigning Probabilities
2

• A challenge is determine the values in the numerator

and denominator.
• A small number of outcomes is easy to count.
• If the experiment is complex, there are many possible
outcomes.
• There are three formulas to help determine the
number of outcomes.
• Multiplication formula.
• Permutation formula.
• Combination formula.

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Approaches to
Assigning Probabilities
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• Suppose there is a single group.
• We can determine the number of all possible
arrangements of an outcomes from the group.
• Permutation Any arrangement of r objects selected
from a single group of n possible objects.
n! (n −1)(n − 2) (n − (r +1))(n − r)!
=
n Pr =
(n − r)! (n − r)!

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Approaches to
Assigning Probabilities
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• Example: A media company is producing a 1-minute ad
video.
• In the production process, eight different video
segments were made.
• They can only select three segments.
• How many different ways can the eight video segments
be arranged?
• n = 8, r = 3.

• n Pr =
n!
=
8! = 8! = (8)(7)(6)(5!) = 336
(n − r)! (8 − 3)! 5! 5!

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Approaches to
Assigning Probabilities
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• If the order of the selected objects is not important,

any arrangement is called a combination.
• ABC is the same combination as BAC
The number of combinations is less than the number of
permutations.
• Combination An event of outcomes when the order of
the outcomes does not matter.
• The permutation formula overcounts the r!
permutations, divide out the over counting.

n!
Cr =
r!(n − r )!
n

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Approaches to
Assigning Probabilities
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• Empirical probability is the second type of probability.
• It is based on observation, counting and recording
experimental outcomes.

• Empirical Probability The probability of an event based

on a collection of observations or data.
• An empirical probability is based on relative frequencies.

Number of times the event occurs

Total number of observations

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Approaches to
Assigning Probabilities
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• The empirical approach is based on the law of large numbers.
• Law of Large Numbers Over a large number of trials, the empirical
probability of an event will approach its true probability.

• The key is that more observations provide an accurate estimate of the

probability.

Number of Trials Number of Heads Relative Frequency of Heads

1 0 .00
10 3 .30
50 26 .52
100 52 .52
500 236 .472
1,000 494 .494
10,000 5,027 .5027

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Rules of Addition 7

• General Addition Rule.

P ( A or B) = P ( A) + P (B ) − P ( A and B )
• The use of “or” is inclusive: A or B or both.
• Account for the joint probability that is in both A and B.
• Subtract it out so it is not double counted.
• Note P(A or B) = 0 means events are mutually exclusive.

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 Rules of Addition 1

• Mutually Exclusive The occurrence of one event means that none of the
other events can occur at the same time.
• Collectively Exhaustive At least one of the events must occur when an
experiment is conducted.
• If events are mutually exclusive, the special rule of addition is:
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B).
• This works for any number of mutually exclusive events.

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Rules of Addition 4

• The complement rule is used to determine the

probability of an event happening by subtracting the
probability of an event not happening from 1.
P ( A) + P (~ A) = 1 so P ( A) = 1− P (~ A)

• Access the text alternative for slide images.

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Rules of Multiplication 3

• If two events are not independent, they are dependent.

• Conditional Probability The probability of a particular
event occurring, given that another event has occurred.
• The conditional probability is represented a P(B A).
• Read the “probability of B given A”.
• General multiplication rule: P( A and B) = P( A)P(B A).

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Bayes’ Theorem 1

• Bayes’ Theorem is a method of revising a probability,

given that additional information is obtained.
• Prior Probability The initial probability based on the
present level of information.
• Posterior Probability A revised probability based on
additional information.

P( A1)P(B | A1
P(A1 B ) =
P( A1)P(B | A1) + P( A2 )P(B | A2 )

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 Multiple choice question

For a combination, the order of items:

A) Matters
B) Does not matter
C) Depends on items
Answer: B) Does not matter
For a permutation of 5 items taken 3 at a time:
A) 10
B) 60
C) 120
Answer: B) 60
Conditional probability assumes events are:
A) Independent
B) Dependent
C) Collective
Answer: B) Dependent
 Multiple choice question
Empirical probability is based on:
A) Theory
B) Observation
C) Prediction
Answer: B) Observation
P(A∣B) refers to:
A) Probability of A given B
B) Probability of B given A
C) Joint probability of A and B
Answer: A) Probability of A given B
 Multiple choice question
In Bayes' theorem, posterior probability is based on:
A) Prior probability
B) Additional information
C) Both A and B
Answer: C) Both A and B
Conditional probability assumes events are:
A) Independent
B) Dependent
C) Collective
Answer: B) Dependent
 Multiple choice question
What rule is used to calculate P(A∩B) for independent events?
A) Addition rule
B) Multiplication rule
C) Complement rule
Answer: B) Multiplication rule
 Multiple choice question
If P(B)=0.4 and P(D∣B)=0.5, P(B∩D)=?
A) 0.2
B) 0.5
C) 0.9
Answer: A) 0.2
The probability both shirts are white from 12 shirts (9 white) is:
A) 0.3
B) 0.55
C) 1.0
Answer: B) 0.55
 Multiple choice question

If an event's probability is calculated without repetition, it's a:

A) Permutation
B) Combination
C) Mutual event
Answer: A) Permutation
Total number of words with 4 letters from MONDAY:
A) 60
B) 360
C) 720
Answer: B) 360
(i) Number of letters to be used = 4

Number of permutations = 6P4 = 6!/(6 – 4)! = 6!/2! = 720/2 = 360 Therefore, we can form 350 words with 4 letters from the word MONDAY.
 Multiple choice question

P(A∣B) is also known as:

A) Independent probability
B) Conditional probability
C) Empirical probability
Answer: B) Conditional probability
If a combination is n C r, r refers to:
A) Total elements
B) Elements chosen
C) Total outcome
Answer: B) Elements chosen
 True or false

1. The probability of an impossible event is 1.False

2. For mutually exclusive events A and B, P(A∪B)=P(A) + P(B).True
3. The empirical probability is based on theoretical outcomes. False
4. If events A and B are independent, then P(A∩B)=P(A)⋅P(B).True
5. The number of permutations of n items taken r at a time is given by nCr.False
6. The law of large numbers suggests that as the number of trials increases, empirical probability
approaches theoretical probability. True
7. The total probability of all mutually exclusive outcomes is always 1.True
8. For any two events, P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A∩B).True
9. A conditional probability is the probability of an event given that another event has occurred. True
10.For events A and B, if P(A∪B)=0, then they are mutually exclusive. False
11.Empirical probability requires a large number of observations for accuracy. True
12.The complement rule is P(A′)=1−P(A) True
13.A permutation considers both the number and order of objects. True
14.In the general addition rule, joint probability is subtracted to avoid double counting. True
15.Bayes' theorem cannot be applied to dependent events. False
16.When an event is mutually exclusive, its complement cannot happen at the same time. True
Essay
Suppose 5% of the population of a men have a disease.
• Given someone has the disease, the probability of a
positive test result is 0.90.
• Given someone does not have the disease, the
probability of a positive test result is 0.15.
• Given someone has a positive test result, what is the
probability they have the disease?

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Bayes’ Theorem 3

• Let A1 • represent having the disease.

• Let A2 • represent not having the disease.
• Let B a positive rest result.

Event, PriorProbability, Conditional Probability, JointProbability, PosteriorProbability,

P( Ai ) P(B | Ai ) P( Ai and B) P( Ai | B)
Ai

Disease, A1 .05 .90 .0450 .0450 / .1875 = .24

No disease, A2 .95 .15 .1425 .1425 / .1875 = .76

P (B) = .1875 1.00

P( A1)P(B | A1) (.05) (.90)

• P(A1 B ) = =
P( A1)P(B | A1) + P( A2 )P(B | A2 ) (.05) (.90) + (.95)(.15) = 0.24

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• How many 4-digit numbers can be formed by using the digits 1 to 9 if
repetition of digits is not allowed?
Solution:
Digits: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9
• We can form several four-digit numbers using these 9 digits. Suppose 3456
and 6543 are two 4-digit numbers. Here, the order of digits is not a matter.
Thus, there will be as many 4 digit numbers as there are permutations of 9
different digits taken 4 at a time.
9P4 = 9!/(9 – 4)!
= 9!/5! = (9 × 8 × 7 × 6 × 5!)/5! = 3024

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• From a class of 30 students, 4 are to be chosen for the competition. In
how many ways can they be chosen?
Solution:
Total students = n = 30
Number of students to be chosen = r = 4
Hence, Total number of ways 4 students out of 30 can be chosen is,
30C4 = (30 × 29 × 28)/ (4 × 3 × 2 × 1)
= 24360/ 24
= 1015 ways

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• Noh has 5 friends. In how many ways can he invite one or more of
them to his party.
Solution:
Noh may invite (i) one of them (ii) two of them (iii) three of them (iv) four
of them (v) all of them
and this can be done in 5C1, 5C2, 5C3, 5C4, 5C5 ways
Therefore, The total number of ways = 5C1 + 5C2 + 5C3 + 5C4 + 5C5
= 5!/ (1! 4!) + 5!/ (2! 3!) + 5!/ (4! 1!) + 5!/ (5! 0!)
= 5 + 10 + 10 + 5 +1
= 31 ways

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• The Grand 16 movie theater uses teams of three employees to work
the concession stand each evening.
• There are seven employees available to work.
• How many different teams can be scheduled?

𝑛! 7! 7!
• 𝑛𝐶𝑟 = = =
𝑟! (𝑛 − 𝑟)! 3! (7 − 3)! 3! 4!
= 35

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A survey by the American Automobile Association (AAA) revealed 60% of its
members made airline reservations last year.
• Two members are selected at random.
• What is the probability both made airline reservations last year?

• P(R1 and R2 ) = P(R1)P(R2 ) = (.60)(.60) = .36.

Outcomes Joint Probability
R1 R2 (.60)(.60) = .36

R1  R2 (.60)(.40) = .24

 R1 R2 (.40)(.60) = .24

 R1  R2 (.40)(.40) = .16
Total 1.00
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• A student goes to the library. Let events B= the student checks out a book
and D= the student check out a DVD. Suppose that P(B)=0.40,P(D)=0.30
and P(D|B)=0.5
• Find P(B AND D)
• Find P(B OR D)
Answer
P(B AND D)=P(D|B)P(B)=(0.5)(0.4)=0.20
P(B OR D)=P(B)+P(D)−P(B AND D)=0.40+0.30−0.20=0.50

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• A golfer has 12 golf shirts in his closet.
• Suppose 9 of these shirts are white and the others are blue.
• He gets dressed in the dark, so he just grabs a shirt and puts in on.
• He plays golf two days in a row and does not return the shirts to
the closet.
• What is the probability both shirts are white?

• P( W1 and W2 ) = P( W1 )P( W2 W1 ) =  9 
 8  =.55

 12  11 

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A machine fills plastic bags with a mixture of beans, broccoli, and other vegetables.
• Most of the bags contain the correct weight.
• Because of the variation in the size of the beans and other vegetables, a package might be underweight
or overweight.

Weight Event Number of Probability of

Packages Occurrence
Underweight A 100 .025 100
Satisfactory B 3,600 .900

4,000
Overweight C 300 .075
4,000 1.000

• What is the probability that a particular package will be either underweight

or overweight?
• P(A or C) = 0.025 +0.075 = 0.10.

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