Scribd
Upload
8 views

Chapter 6 - Probability

Uploaded by

maizon.darus
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
8 views

Chapter 6 - Probability

Uploaded by

maizon.darus
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 30

Chapter 6

Probability

Limkokwing University of Creative Technology (LUCT)


Introduction

• Probability is an analysis of the likelihood that an event


will happen.
• The mathematical theory of probability was first
introduced by French mathematicians Blaise Pascal
(1623–1662) and Pierre Fermat (1601–1665), when they
were trying to solve some gambling problems involving
dice.
• The theory of probability has been widely applied in
various fields of study such as medicine, engineering,
meteorology, earthquake prediction, agriculture,
marketing and finance.
Three different conceptual approaches to probability:

Classic approach: Computed by finding the ratio of the


number of possible outcomes included in event A to the
number of possible outcomes included in the sample
space.

Relative frequency approach: The proportion of the


frequency of a favorable outcome which occurs in a
number of observations or experiments.

Subjective approach: The degree of belief an event


will occur by an individual based on the evidence and
the information provided.
Permutation

• A permutation is any particular arrangement of r


objects which are selected from a set of n distinct
objects, where r ≤ n.
• The formula to determine the number of permutations
is as follows.

(a) Where repetition is allowed: When we have n


things to choose from ... We have n choices each time.
When choosing r of them, the permutations are:
n × n × ... (r times) = 𝑛𝑟
b) Where repetition is not allowed: In this case,
we have to reduce the number of available
choices each time. The formula to determine
the number of permutations is:
n!
n
Pr 
(n  r )!
Example:
Consider the number of ways of arranging two
letters selected from letters A, B, C and D. The
arrangements are:
AB AC AD
BA BC BD
CA CB CD
DA DB DC
Thus, we have twelve arrangements listed out.
The number of arrangements can be calculated
using:
n!
n
Pr 
(n  r )!
4!
  12
(4  2)!
• If only one letter is selected from A, B, C and D, then
4!
the number of arrangements 4 P1   4 . The
(4  1)!
arrangements are A, B, C and D.

• If three letters are selected and arranged, then the


4!
number of arrangements = 4 P3  = 24.
(4  3)!

• If all four letters are selected, then the number of


4!
arrangements = 4 P4  = 4! = 24.
(4  4)!
Example
A doctor has three examination rooms. There are six
patients in the waiting room. In how many different
ways can the patients be assigned to the examination
rooms?
Solution
Let n = the number of patients = 6
r = the number of rooms = 3
Using the permutation formula, we get
n!
n
Pr 
(n  r )!
6!
6
p3 
(6  3)!
6.5.4.3.2.1
  120
3.2.1
Example
Given six digits 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6.

a) Determine the number of four-digit numbers that can be


formed using the digits if repetition is allowed. (Answer: 1296 ways)

b) Determine the number of four-digit numbers that can be


formed using the digits if no repetition is allowed. (Answer: 1296 ways)

c) How many four-digits numbers greater than 4,000 can be


formed using the digits given without repetition? (Answer: 180 ways)
Solution:
Combination
• A combination is the number of ways in selecting
r objects from n distinct objects where the order
is not important.
• The formula used to determine the number of
combinations is
n!
n
Cr 
r!(n  r )!
Example:
How many ways can a student choose four out of six
questions in an examination?

Solution
n = 6, r = 4
6!
6
C4 
4!(6  4)!
6  5  4  3  2 1
  15
4  3  2 1  2 1
Example:
There are twelve people entering a room where there are
only ten chairs. How many ways can two people be
chosen to remain standing?
Solution
n = 12, r = 2
12!
12
C2 
2!(12  2)!
 66
So, what’s the difference ?
In English, we use the word "combination" loosely, without
thinking if the order of things is important. In other words:
1. "My fruit salad is a combination of apples, grapes and
bananas." We don't care what order the fruits are in, they
could also be "bananas, grapes and apples" or "grapes,
apples and bananas", its the same fruit salad.
2. "The combination to the safe is 472". Now we do care
about the order. "724" won't work, nor will "247". It has to be
exactly 4-7-2. (So this is permutation).

So, in Mathematics we use more accurate language:


If the position or order is not important, it is a
Combination.
If the order is important, it is a Permutation.
The Rules of Probability
Sample Space and Event:

• Sample space, s is the possible outcomes of an


experiment.
• If we toss a coin, the possible outcomes are either
head (H) or tail (T), so the sample space is s = {H, T}
and the number of elements or possible outcomes is
two and we write n(s) = 2.
• If we throw a dice, the possible outcomes are 1, 2, 3,
4, 5, or 6. The sample space will be s={1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
and n(s) = 6.
• An event, A is a set of outcomes or a subset of the
sample space.
• If P(A) denotes the probability of an event A occurring,
then P(A) denotes the probability that A will not occur.
• The sum of P(A) and P(A) must always equals one.
• Probability is expressed in decimal between 0 and 1. If
we are certain an event will occur, the probability is 1
or if there is no chance that an event will occur, the
probability is 0.
Example:

If you roll a dice, what is the probability of getting


a) number 5,
b) a number less than 4?
a) There are six faces on a dice and only one face has
five dots. The frequency of getting a 5 is 1, and the
sample size is 6.

Probability = number of outcomes included in the event


sample size

Probability of getting 5:
1
P(5) =
6
b) The possible outcomes less than 4 are 1, 2 and 3.
So, the frequency of outcomes which is less than 4 is
3.

3
P(less than 4) = 6
1
=
2
The Addition Rule
• Mutually exclusive events
o When event A and event B cannot occur together,
they are mutually exclusive.
o For instance, we have to travel to a place and there
are only two choices, either by bus or taxi. It is not
possible to go by bus and taxi at the same time. So,
the event of going by bus and going by taxi are
mutually exclusive.
o To find the probability of event A or event B
occurring, we sum up the probability that event A
will occur and the probability that event B will occur.
o P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B)
Example:
There are 25 students in a class. Five of them scored A
and ten of them scored B while the others scored C for
Business Statistics subject. If a student is selected at
random, what is the probability that the selected student
scored A or B in Calculus?
Solution:

Let P(A) = probability of students scoring A in Business Statistics


P(B) = probability of students scoring B in Business Statistics
5 1
P(A) = 
25 5
25 2
P(B) = 
25 5
1 2 3
P(A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B)   
5 5 5
Multiplication Rule
• Independent Events
o The two events are statistically independent when
the occurrence of one event is not affected by the
result of the other event.
o For example, if a coin is tossed twice, the
1
probability of getting heads in the first event is ,
2
o and the probability of getting heads in the second
toss is also 1 no matter what outcome in the first
trial is. 2
o When the two events A and B are statistically
independent, the probability that event A and event
B will occur is the product of the separate
probabilities.
o Thus,
P(A ∩ B) =P(A) x P(B)
Example:
If a married couple wants to have two children, what is
the probability of getting a boy and a girl?

Solution
Let P(B) = probability of getting a boy
P(G) = probability of getting a girl

1 1
P(B) = 2 , P(G) = 2
1 1 1
P(B ∩ G) = P(B)  P(G) =  
2 2 4
Thank you

You might also like

pFad - Phonifier reborn

Pfad - The Proxy pFad of © 2024 Garber Painting. All rights reserved.

Note: This service is not intended for secure transactions such as banking, social media, email, or purchasing. Use at your own risk. We assume no liability whatsoever for broken pages.


Alternative Proxies:

Alternative Proxy

pFad Proxy

pFad v3 Proxy

pFad v4 Proxy