PROBABILITY AND

COUNTING RULES
SAMPLE SPACES AND
PROBABILITY
PROBABILITY

is the study of randomness and

uncertainty
it is the chance of an event occurring
it is also the basis of inferential
statistics
examples are card games, slot machines,
lotteries
BASIC CONCEPTS OF
PROBABILITY
 BASIC CONCEPT OF PROBABILITY

PROBABILITY EXPERIMENT
is a chance process that leads to
well-defined results called outcomes.
examples are flipping a coin, rolling
a die, drawing a card
 BASIC CONCEPT OF PROBABILITY

OUTCOME
is the result of a single trial of a
probability experiment
SAMPLE SPACE
is the set of all possible outcomes
of a probability experiment
 BASIC CONCEPT OF PROBABILITY

Example:
If two dice
Find the are rolled
then we need
sample space
to multiply
for rolling
6 two times
two dice. which will
result in
36.
 BASIC CONCEPT OF PROBABILITY

TREE DIAGRAM
is a device consisting of line segments
emanating from a starting point and
also from outcome point.
it is used to determine all possible
outcomes of a probability experiment
 BASIC CONCEPT OF PROBABILITY

Example:
Find the
sample space Sample Space:
for the S = {bbb,
gender of the bbg, bgb,
children if a bgg, gbb,
family has 3 gbg, ggb,
children. Use ggg}.
B for boy and
G for girl.
 BASIC CONCEPT OF PROBABILITY

EVENT
it consists of set of outcomes
of a probability experiment
is a subset of the sample
space
 TYPES OF EVENTS

SIMPLE EVENT
Any event consisting of a single point of the sample
space is known as a simple event in probability.

COMPOUND EVENT
Contrary to the simple event, compound event is any event
consists of more than one single point of the sample space.
number of favorable outcomes
P(E)= total number of favorable outcomes
 TYPES OF EVENTS

EQUALLY LIKELY EVENT

are event that have the same probability of occuring.

COMPLEMENTARY EVENT
the complementary of an event E is the set of outcomes in the
sample space that are not included in the outcomes of an event
E. The complement of an event E is denoted by Ē
P(E)+ P(Ē)= 1
BASIC INTERPRETATION
OF PROBABILITY
 BASIC CONCEPT OF PROBABILITY

CLASSICAL PROBABILITY
Classical probability uses sample space to
determine the numerical probability that an event
will happen. It assumes that all outcomes in the
sample space are equally likely to occur.
number of outcomes in an event
P(E)= total number of outcomes in a sample spaces
 BASIC CONCEPT OF PROBABILITY

EMPIRICAL PROBABILITY
empirical probability is the probability of
an event based on the results of an actual
experiment conducted several times.

number of times an event occurs

P(E)= total number of trials
 BASIC CONCEPT OF PROBABILITY

SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY
Subjective probability uses a probability
value based on an educated guess or
estimate,employing opinions and inexact
information.
ADDITION RULES
OF PROBABILITY
 ADDITION RULES

The addition rule allows us to find

the probability that at least one of
two events will occur.

Two types of Events: Mutually

Exclusive Events and Non-Mutually
Exclusive Events
 TYPES OF EVENTS

MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS

Events are mutually exclusive if they have no outcomes
in common (they cannot happen together).

A B

P(A∪B) = P(A) + P(B)

 MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE

Example:

A fair six-sided die, numbered 1 to 6 is rolled. What is the

probability of the die landing on a 3 or an even number?
 TYPES OF EVENTS

NON-MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS

Events are non-mutually exclusive if they can happen at
the same time (they overlap).

A B

P(A∪B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A∩B)

 NON-MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE

Example:

What is the probability of drawing a heart or a king from a

standard deck of cards?
COUNTING RULES
IN PROBABILITY
 COUNTING RULES

Counting rules simplify

probability calculations when
dealing with many outcomes.
Essential for determining the size
of the sample space.
Key Counting Rules Include:
Multiplication Rule for Counting ,
Permutations, and Combinations
 MULTIPLICATION RULE

If there are m ways to perform one task and n ways to

perform a second task, then there are m × n ways to
perform both tasks. This extends to multiple tasks
EXAMPLE:
Consider
choosing an
outfit
3 shirts (m) 2 pants (n)

MXN=3X2=6
Therefore, the total number of different outfits is 3 × 2 = 6.
This rule is fundamental and applicable whenever independent choices need to be
combined.
 PERMUTATIONS
Permutations count the number of ways to arrange n distinct
objects in a specific order. The formula is n! (n
factorial), where n! = n × (n-1) × (n-2) × ... × 2 × 1. If
you only want to arrange r objects out of n, the formula is
nPr = n! / (n-r)!.
EXAMPLE: The number of ways to arrange 3 books on a shelf

N!= 3! = 3 X 2 X 1 = 6 WAYS
Use permutations when the order of selection matters
(e.g., arranging objects, assigning ranks).
 PERMUTATIONS
Scenario: A company is organizing a team building event where they
want to select 3 employees out of 10 to participate in a leadership
challenge. The order in which they are selected matters because the
first person chosen will be the team leader, the second will be the
team strategist, and the third will be the team communicator.
Applying the Formula:
n = 10: This is the total number of employees.
r = 3: This is the number of employees being selected for the
leadership challenge.
Using the formula, the number of possible arrangements
(permutations) is:
10P3 = 10! / (10 - 3)! = 10! / 7! = 10 × 9 × 8 = 720 ways
 COMBINATIONS

Combinations count the number of ways to choose r objects

from a set of n distinct objects, where the order of
selection does not matter. The formula is nCr = n! / (r! ×
(n-r)!).

EXAMPLE: The number of ways to choose 2 books from a set of 5 is

5C2 = 5! / (2! × 3!) = 10 WAYS

Use combinations when the order of selection doesn't
matter (e.g., forming committees, selecting samples).
MULTIPLICATION
RULES
 MULTIPLICATION RULES

MULTIPLICATION RULES
The multiplication rule of probability states that the
probability of the events, A and B, both occurring
together is equal to the probability that B occurs
times the conditional probability that A occurs given
that B occurs.
The multiplication rule can be written as
P(A∩B)=P(B)⋅P(A|B)
MULTIPLICATION RULES
 MULTIPLICATION RULES

MULTIPLICATION RULE OF PROBABILITY FOR N EVENTS

•Now, to obtain the multiplication rule of probability for n
Events, the extension of the multiplication theorem of
probability to n events for n events A1, A2, … , An, we have
P(A1 ∩ A2 ∩ … ∩ An) = P(A1) P(A2 | A1) P(A3 | A1 ∩ A2) … ×
P(An |A1 ∩ A2 ∩ … ∩ An-1)
•For n independent events, the multiplication theorem reduces to
P(A1 ∩ A2 ∩ … ∩ An) = P(A1) P(A2) … P(An).
CONDITIONAL
PROBABILITY
 CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

CONDITIONAL
PROBABILITY
In probability theory, conditional
probability is a measure of the probability
of an event occurring, given that another
event (by assumption, presumption,
assertion or evidence) is already known to
have occurred.
 CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

EXAMPLE:
There are 500 students in a certain school. 150 students are
enrolled in an Algebra course and 80 students are enrolled in a
Chemistry course. There are 30 students who are taking both
Algebra and Chemistry. If a student is chosen at random, (a)
What is the probability that the student is taking Algebra? (b)
What is the probability that the student is taking Chemistry
given that the student is also taking Algebra? (c) What is the
probability that the student is taking Algebra given that the
student is also taking Chemistry?
CONDITIONAL
COUNTING RULES
 CONDITIONAL COUNTING RULES

Conditional Counting Rules are methods used in

probability and combinatorics to count outcomes
based on a condition or restriction, allowing only
outcomes that meet a certain criterion. They are
especially useful when calculating probabilities or
combinations in events with specific constraints
 CONDITIONAL COUNTING RULES

EXAMPLE:
Imagine you are selecting a team of 3 students from a group of 5 girls
and 4 boys, but you need exactly 2 girls on the team. The conditional
counting rule here is that you only consider groups with exactly 2
girls.
To calculate:
1. Choose 2 girls from the 5 girls, which can be done in
\( \binom{5}{2} = 10 \) ways.
2. Choose 1 boy from the 4 boys, which can be done in
\( \binom{4}{1} = 4 \) ways.

So, there are \( 10 \times 4 = 40 \) ways to form a team of 3 with

exactly 2 girls and 1 boy
 CONDITIONAL COUNTING RULES

EXAMPLE:
Suppose you have a deck of 52 playing cards, and you want to
count how many ways you can draw a red card. The conditional
counting rule here is to focus only on red cards and ignore the
others. Since half the deck (26 cards) is red, there are 26
possible ways to draw a red card out of 52.
WELL DONE

Thank You!