A Survey of

Probability Concepts
Chapter 5

1
Learning Objectives

LO5-1 Define the terms probability, experiment, event, and outcome

LO5-2 Assign probabilities using a classical, empirical, or subjective approach
Objective

LO5-3 Calculate probabilities using the rules of addition

LO5-4 Calculate probabilities using the rules of multiplication
LO5-5 Compute probabilities using a contingency table
LO5-6 Calculate probabilities using Bayes’ theorem
LO5-7 Determine the number of outcomes using principles of counting
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Probability

PROBABILITY A value between 0 and 1 inclusive that represents

the likelihood a particular event happens.

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Probability

EXPERIMENT A process that leads to the

occurrence of one and only one of
several possible results.

OUTCOME A particular result of an experiment.

EVENT A collection of one or more outcomes of

an experiment.

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Classical Probability

The classical definition of probability applies when there are n equally likely outcomes to an
experiment

MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE The occurrence of one event means that none of the other events can occur at the same time.

COLLECTIVELY EXHAUSTIVE At least one of the events must occur when an experiment is conducted.

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Empirical Probability

The empirical definition occurs when the number of times an event happens is divided by the
number of outcomes
EMPIRICAL PROBABILITY The probability of an event happening is the fraction of the time similar events happened in
the past.

LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS Over a large number of trials, the empirical probability of an event will approach its true
probability.

Number of successful flights

Probabilit y of a successful flight =
Total number of flights
121
= = 0.98
123
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Subjective Probability

SUBJECTIVE CONCEPT OF PROBABILITY The likelihood (probability) of a particular event

happening that is assigned by an individual based on
whatever information is available.

Examples of subjective probability are

• Estimating the likelihood, the New England Patriots will be in the Super Bowl next year
• Estimating the likelihood, the U.S. budget deficit will be reduced by half in the next 10 years

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Summary of Approaches to Probability

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Rules of Addition

The rules of addition refer to the probability that any two or more events can occur
The special rule of addition is used when the events are mutually exclusive

SPECIAL RULE OF ADDITION P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

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Rules of Addition Example

A machine fills plastic bags with a mixture of beans, broccoli, and other vegetables. Most of the
bags contain the correct weight, but because of the variation in the size of the beans and other
vegetables, a package might be underweighted or overweight. A check of 4,000 packages filled in
the past month revealed:

 What is the probability that a particular package will be either underweight or overweight?
P(A or C) = P(A) + P(C) = .025 + .075 = .10
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Complement Rule
The complement rule is used to determine the probability of an event happening by subtracting the
probability of an event not happening
COMPLEMENT RULE P(A) = 1 – P(~A)

You can also use the complement rule

P(A or C) = P(~B) = 1 – P(B) = 1 - 0.900 = 0.10

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General Rule of Addition

The general rule of addition is used when the events are not mutually exclusive
GENERAL RULE OF ADDITION P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B)

JOINT PROBABILITY A probability that measures the likelihood two or more events will happen
concurrently.

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General Rule of Addition Example

A sample of 200 tourists in Florida shows 120 went to

Disney, 100 went to Busch Gardens, and 60 visited both.

P(Disney) =120/200 = 0.60

P(Busch) =100/200 = 0.50
P(Disney and Busch) = 60/200 = 0.30

P(Disney or Busch) = P(Disney) + P(Busch) – P (Disney and Busch)

= 0.60 + 0.50 - 0.30 = 0.80

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Special Rule of Multiplication

The rules of multiplication are applied when two or more events occur simultaneously
The special rule of multiplication refers to events that are independent
INDEPENDENCE The occurrence of one event has no effect on the probability of the occurrence of another
event.
SPECIAL RULE OF MULTIPLICATON P(A and B) = P(A) P(B)

A survey by the American Automobile Association (AAA) revealed 60% of its members made
airline reservations last year. Two members are selected at random. What is the probability both
made airline reservations last year?
P(R1 and R2) = P(R1)P(R2) = (.60)(.60) = .36
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General Rule of Multiplication

The general rule of multiplication refers to events that are not independent
A conditional probability is the likelihood an event will happen, given that another event has
already happened
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY The probability of a particular event occurring, given that another event has
occurred.

The conditional probability is represented a P(B|A) and is read, the probability of B given A

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General Rule of Multiplication Example

A golfer has 12 golf shirts in his closet. Suppose 9 of these shirts are white and the others
are blue. He gets dressed in the dark , so he just grabs a shirt and puts in on. He plays golf
two days in a row and does not return the shirts to the closet. What is the probability both
shirts are white?

P(W1 and W2) = P(W1)P(W2|W1) = ( )( ) = .55

9 8
12 11
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Contingency Tables

CONTINGENCY TABLE A table used to classify sample observations according to two or more
identifiable categories or classes.

One hundred fifty adults were asked their gender and the number of Facebook accounts they used.
The following table summarizes the results.
Gender
Facebook Accounts Men Women Total
0 20 40 60
1 40 30 70
2 or more 10 10 20
Total 70 80 150
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Tree Diagrams

A tree diagram is a visual that is helpful in organizing and calculating probabilities for
problems with several stages
Each stage of the problem is represented by a branch of the tree
Label the branches with the probabilities
Age
Less than 30 30 up to 60 60 or Older
Movies per Month B1 B2 B3 Total
0 A1 15 50 10 75
1 or 2 A2 25 100 75 200
3, 4, or 5 A3 55 60 60 175
6 or more A4 5 15 30 50
Total 100 225 175 500 5-18
Tree Diagram Example

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Bayes’ Theorem

Bayes’ Theorem is a method of revising a probability, given that additional information is obtained
For two mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive events

PRIOR PROBABILITY The initial probability based on the present

level of information.

POSTERIOR PROBABILITY A revised probability based on additional

information.

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Bayes’ Theorem Example

Suppose 5% of the population of Umen have a disease and A1 represents the part of the population that has the disease and A2 represents those
who do not. Let B denote a test result that shows the disease is present.

P(A1) = .05 Individual has the disease

P(A2) = .95 Individual does not have the disease
P(B|A1) = .90 Test shows the individual has the disease and is correct
P(B|A2) = .15 Test incorrectly shows the individual has the disease

Randomly select an individual and perform the test. The test results indicate the disease is present. What is the probability the test is correct?
Use Bayes’ theorem to solve.

P(A1|B) = = = = .24
𝑃 𝐴1 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴1) .05 (.90) .0450
𝑃 𝐴1 𝑃 𝐵 𝐴1 +𝑃 𝐴2 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴2) .05 .90)+ .95 (.15) .1875

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Multiplication Formula

The multiplication formula states that if there are n ways of doing one thing, and m ways of
doing another thing, then there are m*n ways of doing both

An automobile dealer wants to advertise that for $29,999

you can buy a convertible, a 2-door, or a 4-door model with
your choice of either wire wheel covers or solid wheel covers.
How many different vehicles can the dealer offer?
Total possible = (m)(n)=(3)(2) = 6

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The Permutation Formula
Chỉnh hợp

Another counting formula used to determine a total number of outcomes

PERMUTATION Any arrangement of r objects selected from a single group of n possible
objects.

There are three electronic parts to be assembled, so n=3. Because all three are to be inserted into the plug-in component, r=3.
P = = =6
3! 3! 3!
3 3 =
3−3 ! 0! 1

Label the parts A, B, and C ABC BAC CAB ACB BCA CBA
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The Combination Formula
tổ hợp

Another counting formula useful in determining the total number of outcomes

A combination is an arrangement where the order of the objects selected is not important

The Grand 16 movie theater uses teams of three employees to work the concession stand each evening. There are
seven employees available to work. How many different teams can be scheduled?
𝑛! 7! 7!
7C3 = 𝑟! 𝑛−𝑟 !
=
3! 7−3 !
=
3!4!
= 35

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