Month wise Domestic Sale of Tractors in India

Source: https://www.tmaindia.in/tractor-industry.php

Year Month Sales

2014 April 49668 S
2014 May 54625
100000
2014 June 66172
2014 July 40345 90000

2014 Aug 32953 80000

2014 Sept 68353 70000
2014 Oct 77983 60000
2014 Nov 36219 50000
2014 Dec 27945 40000
2015 Jan 33964 30000
2015 Feb 29416 20000
2015 March 33820 10000
2015 April 40244 0
2015 May 44716 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15
2015 June 57550
2015 July 35315
2015 Aug 26074
2015 Sept 45089
2015 Oct 65098
2015 Nov 46885
2015 Dec 27898
2016 Jan 34128
2016 Feb 32096
2016 March 38671
2016 April 46031
2016 May 51566
2016 June 65938
2016 July 38248
2016 Aug 30319
2016 Sept 67361
2016 Oct 93907
2016 Nov 40763
2016 Dec 30038
2017 Jan 36021
2017 Feb 34492
2017 March 48160
 Sales

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35
Year Month Sales 12 MA Trend Cycle Component Seasonality Random Forecast
2014 April 49668
2014 May 54625
2014 June 66172
2014 July 40345
2014 Aug 32953
2014 Sept 68353 45955.25
2014 Oct 77983 45169.92 45562.58 32420.41667 28065.1458333333 4355.271 84753.06
2014 Nov 36219 44344.17 44757.04 -8538.041667 -1783.85416666667 -6754.187 48134
2014 Dec 27945 43625.67 43984.92 -16039.91667 -15345.75 -694.1667 22657.1
2015 Jan 33964 43206.5 43416.08 -9452.083333 -9172.6875 -279.3958 34118.06
2015 Feb 29416 42633.25 42919.88 -13503.875 -12364.125 -1139.75 30772.56
2015 March 33820 40694.58 41663.92 -7843.916667 -6799.08333333334 -1044.833 34981.04
2015 April 40244 39620.83 40157.71 86.29166667 -218.166666666668 304.4583 40400.92
2015 May 44716 40509.67 40065.25 4650.75 4358.91666666666 291.8333 44821.08
2015 June 57550 40505.75 40507.71 17042.29167 17823.6458333333 -781.3542 58180.73
2015 July 35315 40519.42 40512.58 -5197.583333 -7225.3125 2027.729 32501.04
2015 Aug 26074 40742.75 40631.08 -14557.08333 -15958.9166666667 1401.833 26581.4
2015 Sept 45089 41147 40944.88 4144.125 11665.0833333333 -7520.958 53698
2015 Oct 65098 41629.25 41388.13 23709.875 28065.1458333333 -4355.271 61489.06
2015 Nov 46885 42200.08 41914.67 4970.333333 -1783.85416666667 6754.187 35249
2015 Dec 27898 42899.08 42549.58 -14651.58333 -15345.75 694.1667 33323.1
2016 Jan 34128 43143.5 43021.29 -8893.291667 -9172.6875 279.3958 34071.06
2016 Feb 32096 43497.25 43320.38 -11224.375 -12364.125 1139.75 30936.56
2016 March 38671 45353.25 44425.25 -5754.25 -6799.08333333334 1044.833 37661.04
2016 April 46031 47754 46553.63 -522.625 -218.166666666668 -304.4583 45251.92
2016 May 51566 47243.83 47498.92 4067.083333 4358.91666666666 -291.8333 50608.08
2016 June 65938 47422.17 47333 18605 17823.6458333333 781.3542 65030.73
2016 July 38248 47579.92 47501.04 -9253.041667 -7225.3125 -2027.729 40889.04
2016 Aug 30319 47779.58 47679.75 -17360.75 -15958.9166666667 -1401.833 29514.4
2016 Sept 67361 48570.33 48174.96 19186.04167 11665.0833333333 7520.958 57943
2016 Oct 93907
2016 Nov 40763
2016 Dec 30038
2017 Jan 36021
2017 Feb 34492
2017 March 48160
Abs(Error) Abs % error MAPE 7.68%

6770.063 0.08681459420643
11915 0.32897098208123
5287.896 0.18922511480885
154.0625 0.00453605287952
1356.563 0.04611648422627
1161.042 0.03433003153952
156.9167 0.0038991319617
105.0833 0.0023500163998
630.7292 0.01095967274833
2813.958 0.07968167445373
507.3958 0.01945983866431
8609 0.19093348710328
3608.937 0.05543853113767
11636 0.2481817212328
5425.104 0.1944621179535
56.9375 0.00166835150023
1159.438 0.03612404972582
1009.958 0.02611668519907
779.0833 0.01692518809788
957.9167 0.01857651682633
907.2708 0.01375945332484
2641.042 0.06905045143973
804.6042 0.0265379519993
9418 0.13981383886819
Alpha 0.115299

Year Month Sales(Actual At) Forecast(Ft) Error(Et=At-Ft) Et^2 SSE 5093366854

2014 April 49668 49668 0 0
2014 May 54625 49668 4957 24571849
2014 June 66172 50239.536 15932.463996 2.54E+08
2014 July 40345 52076.5295 -11731.529509 1.38E+08
2014 Aug 32953 50723.8986 -17770.898584 3.16E+08
2014 Sept 68353 48674.9358 19678.0641685 3.87E+08
2014 Oct 77983 50943.7924 27039.2075694 7.31E+08
2014 Nov 36219 54061.3798 -17842.379811 3.18E+08
2014 Dec 27945 52004.1754 -24059.175361 5.79E+08
2015 Jan 33964 49230.182 -15266.182029 2.33E+08
2015 Feb 29416 47470.01 -18054.010015 3.26E+08
2015 March 33820 45388.4049 -11568.404863 1.34E+08
2015 April 40244 44054.582 -3810.5820085 14520535
2015 May 44716 43615.2266 1100.77341092 1211702
2015 June 57550 43742.1444 13807.8555903 1.91E+08
2015 July 35315 45334.1732 -10019.173179 1E+08
2015 Aug 26074 44178.9748 -18104.974833 3.28E+08
2015 Sept 45089 42091.4935 2997.50650072 8985045
2015 Oct 65098 42437.1023 22660.8976874 5.14E+08
2015 Nov 46885 45049.8759 1835.12405177 3367680
2015 Dec 27898 45261.4635 -17363.463495 3.01E+08
2016 Jan 34128 43259.4775 -9131.4775068 83383881
2016 Feb 32096 42206.6294 -10110.62938 1.02E+08
2016 March 38671 41040.8862 -2369.8862461 5616361
2016 April 40767.6412763 40767.6413
2016 May 40767.6412763 40767.6413
2016 June 40767.6412763 40767.6413
forecasting based on trained model and alpha
2016 July 40767.6412763 40767.6413 value(we assume forecasting is very trustable
2016 Aug 40767.6412763 40767.6413 and we take actuals as equal to forecast)
2016 Sept 40767.6412763 40767.6413
2016 Oct 40767.6412763 40767.6413
2016 Nov 40767.6412763 40767.6413
2016 Dec 40767.6412763 40767.6413
2017 Jan 40767.6412763 40767.6413
2017 Feb 40767.6412763 40767.6413
2017 March 40767.6412763 40767.6413
 Actuals Ft Et Abs(Et) Abs(Et)/At
2016 April 46031 40767.64 5263.359 5263.359 0.114344
2016 May 51566 40767.64 10798.36 10798.36 0.209409
2016 June 65938 40767.64 25170.36 25170.36 0.381728
2016 July 38248 40767.64 -2519.641 2519.641 0.065876
2016 Aug 30319 40767.64 -10448.64 10448.64 0.344624
2016 Sept 67361 40767.64 26593.36 26593.36 0.394789
2016 Oct 93907 40767.64 53139.36 53139.36 0.565872
2016 Nov 40763 40767.64 -4.641276 4.641276 0.000114
2016 Dec 30038 40767.64 -10729.64 10729.64 0.357202
2017 Jan 36021 40767.64 -4746.641 4746.641 0.131774
2017 Feb 34492 40767.64 -6275.641 6275.641 0.181945
2017 March 48160 40767.64 7392.359 7392.359 0.153496

MAPE 24.176%

based on trained model and alpha

sume forecasting is very trustable
ake actuals as equal to forecast)
Alpha 0.056077
Beta 0.191574

Year Month Sales(Actual At) Level(Lt) Trend(Tt) Forecast(Lt+Tt) Error(Et=At-Ft)

2014 April 49668 49668 0 49668 0
2014 May 54625 49668 0 49668 4957
2014 June 66172 49945.97 53.252358739 49999.224676 16172.775323773
2014 July 40345 50906.14 226.99422546 51133.135149 -10788.13514881
2014 Aug 32953 50528.17 111.09879616 50639.270675 -17686.2706751
2014 Sept 68353 49647.48 -78.90233976 49568.580228 18784.419771838
2014 Oct 77983 50621.95 122.89605854 50744.844997 27238.155003057
2014 Nov 36219 52272.27 415.51175384 52687.783233 -16468.78323259
2014 Dec 27945 51764.27 238.58991549 52002.857747 -24057.85774736
2015 Jan 33964 50653.77 -19.86029053 50633.911624 -16669.9116243
2015 Feb 29416 49699.12 -198.9428231 49500.174779 -20084.17477931
2015 March 33820 48373.92 -414.7043079 47959.215759 -14139.2157592
2015 April 40244 47166.33 -566.5999282 46599.734941 -6355.734940891
2015 May 44716 46243.33 -634.8787011 45608.44745 -892.4474500117
2015 June 57550 45558.4 -644.4661394 44913.935782 12636.064218156
2015 July 35315 45622.52 -508.7186662 45113.806193 -9798.806192629
2015 Aug 26074 44564.32 -613.9858727 43950.335376 -17876.33537621
2015 Sept 45089 42947.89 -806.0288472 42141.860216 2947.1397837814
2015 Oct 65098 42307.13 -774.368136 41532.758022 23565.241977585
2015 Nov 46885 42854.22 -521.2100324 42333.009544 4551.990455717
2015 Dec 27898 42588.27 -472.3086347 42115.961619 -14217.96161894
2016 Jan 34128 41318.66 -625.0502108 40693.614708 -6565.614708328
2016 Feb 32096 40325.44 -695.5836927 39629.852856 -7533.852856253
2016 March 38671 39207.38 -776.5188218 38430.860252 240.13974765618
2016 April 37670.38746854 38444.33 -773.939034 37670.387469
2016 May 36896.44843454 37670.39 -773.939034 36896.448435
2016 June 36122.50940054 36896.45 -773.939034 36122.509401
2016 July 35348.57036655 36122.51 -773.939034 35348.570367
2016 Aug 34574.63133255 35348.57 -773.939034 34574.631333
2016 Sept 33800.69229856 34574.63 -773.939034 33800.692299
2016 Oct 33026.75326456 33800.69 -773.939034 33026.753265
2016 Nov 32252.81423057 33026.75 -773.939034 32252.814231
2016 Dec 31478.87519657 32252.81 -773.939034 31478.875197
2017 Jan 30704.93616257 31478.88 -773.939034 30704.936163
2017 Feb 29930.99712858 30704.94 -773.939034 29930.997129
2017 March 29157.05809458 29931 -773.939034 29157.058095
 Et^2 SSE 5044511979.987
0 Actuals Ft Et
24571849 2016 April 46031 37670.39 8360.613
261558662 2016 May 51566 36896.45 14669.55
116383860 2016 June 65938 36122.51 29815.49
312804170 2016 July 38248 35348.57 2899.43
352854426 2016 Aug 30319 34574.63 -4255.631
741917088 2016 Sept 67361 33800.69 33560.31
271220821 2016 Oct 93907 33026.75 60880.25
578780519 2016 Nov 40763 32252.81 8510.186
277885954 2016 Dec 30038 31478.88 -1440.875
403374077 2017 Jan 36021 30704.94 5316.064
199917422 2017 Feb 34492 29931 4561.003
40395366.6 2017 March 48160 29157.06 19002.94
796462.451
159670119
96016602.8
319563366
8685632.91
555320629
20720617.1
202150433
43107296.5
56758938.9
57667.0984

forecasting based on trained model

and alpha and beta values(we assume
forecasting is very trustable and we
take actuals as equal to forecast)
Abs(Et) Abs(Et)/At
8360.613 0.18163
14669.55 0.284481
29815.49 0.452175
2899.43 0.075806
4255.631 0.140362
33560.31 0.498216
60880.25 0.648304
8510.186 0.208772
1440.875 0.047968
5316.064 0.147582
4561.003 0.132234
19002.94 0.394579

MAPE 26.768%