Andy Park: The Reserve Bank will make a decision on interest rates today. It's widely expected to leave interest rates on hold, but there may be clues as to when rates might come down. Business reporter David Taylor joined me earlier. David, why are economists so sure the Reserve Bank will leave interest rates on hold today?

David Taylor: Good day, Andy. Well, look, it's partly to do with the fact that financial markets are pricing in a 90% chance of interest rates staying on hold. And it's for a few reasons. The number one primary reason is that inflation, as measured by the ABS, we're looking at core inflation here, which strips out all volatile items in the ABS basket that measures price increases. That core inflation, as measured by the quarterly CPI figure, the last one we had, which was the December quarter, was 3.2%. And that's outside the Reserve Bank's target band of between 2% and 3%. The Central Bank wants prices to be rising, but not as high or greater than 3% because that helps the economy to function much better. There are also concerns that inflation remains too high, particularly in the services sections of the economy. And what I mean by that is rents are rising too fast, upwards of 5% every quarter. Insurance premiums are still growing very strongly, and, Andy, out-of-pocket healthcare costs are also rising rapidly. So, while other parts of the basket that the ABS measures might actually show prices falling in terms of deflation, there are other parts of the basket that show very strong increase in prices. And that's what the Reserve Bank will continue to watch. But also, I have to add that the jobs market is still considered too tight. And the issue with that, of course, is that the more people who are in work, the more they can spend, and that increases demand in the economy and risks rising inflation. But also, if the jobs market is tight, you've got a greater probability of being able to ask for a higher pay. And that also is a risk to inflation. So, there are lots of reasons why the Reserve Bank may stay on hold.

Andy Park: So, looking ahead, what will you be looking for in terms of clues as to what the RBA will do next on interest rates?

David Taylor: Well, the RBA is very reluctant to give what's called forward guidance or predict what's going to happen with their decision in the future. But they do give some clues about when they may be ready to cut or what they're open to. We're looking in the statement that will accompany the decision. We're looking for phrases like, we're gaining confidence that inflation is returning to target, things like that. But also, basically, Andy, the RBA is waiting for a, quote, green light from the first quarter inflation data. That comes out on April 30th. Now, if that shows core CPI or core inflation within the Reserve Bank's target band, it's almost certain that the Reserve Bank will cut in May. But they are waiting for that official data set.

Andy Park: The financial markets seem to be a bit more buoyant today after a rough day yesterday. What can investors expect ahead of US President Donald Trump's so-called Liberation Day?

David Taylor: One word, volatility. So, financial markets are worried that Donald Trump's tariff announcement will be deeper and broader than anyone expects. It's possible that he won't rattle markets as much as they're expecting on Thursday Australian time. But there's also the possibility that he will. So, markets are worried and have jitters ahead of that announcement, which will, you know, potentially has a lot of implications for global trade and has implications for the health of the US and Chinese economies. And Andy, that's what I'll finish up with, of course, that there are broader worries at present about the US slipping into recession as tariff hikes cripple the economy, but also in terms of how that impact on global growth, because the US is the world's biggest economy, how that will flow through to China. And of course, Andy, China is Australia's largest trading partner.

Andy Park: David Taylor there.