NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center

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= NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center

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A Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms is Forecast Today and/or Tonight

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across central/eastern Minnesota, Iowa, and western Wisconsin. A couple of tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds may occur across this region. Farther south, an area of locally severe wind gusts and hail may also develop over parts of eastern Kansas, southwest Missouri, and northeast Oklahoma.

For additional details, see the latest Day 1 Convective Outlook.

SPC Products Overview

Hazard	Thu (09/19)	Fri (09/20)	Sat (09/21)	Sun (09/22)	Mon (09/23)	Tue (09/24)	Wed (09/25)	Thu (09/26)
Severe	Slight	Marginal	Marginal	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area
Fire	No Critical	No Critical	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area

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Severe Weather Climatology (1982-2011)

Any Severe Probabilities: 19 Sep

Tornado Probabilities: 19 Sep

Damaging Wind Probabilities: 19 Sep

Severe Hail Probabilities: 19 Sep

Significant Tornado Probabilities: 19 Sep

Significant Wind Probabilities: 19 Sep

Significant Hail Probabilities: 19 Sep

More severe weather climatology data here.

Today's Storm Report Trend


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Full-size plot here.

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La tormenta factor de riesgo.

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2024 Watch Summaries

Page last modified: September 19 2024 12:27 UTC

Wildfire Climatology (1992-2015)

100 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 19 Sep

300 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 19 Sep

1000 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 19 Sep

5000 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 19 Sep

More wildfire climatology data here.

Latest SPC Publications

Edwards, R., and R.L. Thompson, 2024: Right-Moving Supercell Tornadogenesis during Interaction with a Left-Moving Supercell's Rear-Flank Outflow. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [15153K PDF] (supplemental radar loop, standard enhancements [27170K MP4]), (supplemental radar loop, colorblind enhancements [33950K MP4])
Squitieri, B.J., A.R. Wade, and I.L. Jirak, 2023: A Historical Overview on the Science of Derechos. Part II: Parent Storm Structure, Environmental Conditions, and History of Numerical Forecasts. Published in Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.. [10595K PDF]
Squitieri, B.J., A.R. Wade, and I.L. Jirak, 2023: A Historical Overview on the Science of Derechos. Part I: Identification, Climatology, and Societal Impacts. Published in Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.. [6899K PDF]
Thompson, R.L., 2023: A Comparison of Right-Moving Supercell and Quasi-Linear Convective System Tornadoes in the Contiguous United States 2003-21. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [4539K PDF]
Gallo, B.T., K.A. Wilson, J.J. Choate, K. Knopfmeier, P. Skinner, B. Roberts^*, P.L. Heinselman, I.L. Jirak, and A.J. Clark, 2022: Exploring the Watch-to-Warning Space: Experimental Outlook Performance during the 2019 Spring Forecasting Experiment in NOAA's Hazardous Weather Testbed. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [4328K PDF]
Squitieri, B.J., and W.A. Gallus Jr., 2022: On the Changes in Convection-Allowing WRF Forecasts of MCS Evolution due to Decreases in Model Horizontal and Vertical Grid Spacing. Part II: Impacts on QPFs. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [5607K PDF]
Squitieri, B.J., and W.A. Gallus Jr., 2022: On the Changes in Convection-Allowing WRF Forecasts of MCS Evolution due to Decreases in Model Horizontal and Vertical Grid Spacing. Part I: Changes in Cold Pool Evolution. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [3655K PDF]
Harrison, D.R., M.S. Elliott, I.L. Jirak, and P.T. Marsh, 2022: Utilizing the High-Resolution Ensemble Forecast System to Produce Calibrated Probabilistic Thunderstorm Guidance. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [2549K PDF]
Find more research articles at the SPC publication archive.

Latest SPC Case Archive

Sep 17, 2024	Tornado: 0	Wind: 97	Hail: 3

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