Decision Making Under

Risk Continued:
Decision Trees
 Problem: Jenny Lind

Jenny Lind is a writer of romance novels. A

movie company and a TV network both want
exclusive rights to one of her more popular
works. If she signs with the network, she will
receive a single lump sum, but if she signs with
the movie company, the amount she will receive
depends on the market response to her movie.
What should she do?
Payouts and Probabilities
 Movie company Payouts
 Small box office - $200,000
 Medium box office - $1,000,000
 Large box office - $3,000,000
 TV Network Payout
 Flat rate - $900,000
 Probabilities
 P(Small Box Office) = 0.3
 P(Medium Box Office) = 0.6
 P(Large Box Office) = 0.1
 Jenny Lind - Payoff Table
States of Nature

Small Box Medium Box Large Box

Decisions Office Office Office

Sign with Movie

$200,000 $1,000,000 $3,000,000
Company

Sign with TV
$900,000 $900,000 $900,000
Network
Prior
0.3 0.6 0.1
Probabilities
 Jenny Lind - How to Decide?

 What would be her decision based on:

Maximax?
Maximin?
Expected Monetary Value?
 Using Expected Return Criteria

EMVmovie=0.3(200,000)+0.6(1,000,000)+0.1(3,000,000)
= $960,000 = EVBest
EMVtv =0.3(900,000)+0.6(900,000)+0.1(900,000)
= $900,000
Therefore, using this criteria, Jenny should select the
movie contract.
Something to Remember
Jenny’s decision is only going to be made one
time, and she will earn either $200,000,
$1,000,000 or $3,000,000 if she signs the movie
contract, not the calculated EV of $960,000!!

Nevertheless, this amount is useful for decision-

making, as it will maximize Jenny’s expected
returns in the long run if she continues to use this
approach.
Expected Value of Perfect Information
(EVPI)

What is the most that Jenny should

be willing to pay to learn what the size
of the box office will be before she
decides with whom to sign?
 EVPI Calculation
EVwPI (or EVc)
=0.3(900,000)+0.6(1,000,000)+0.1(3,000,000) = $1,170,000
EMVBest (calculated to be EMVMovie from the previous
page)
=0.3(200,000)+0.6(1,000,000)+0.1(3,000,000) = $960,000
EVPI = $1,170,000 - $960,000 = $210,000

Therefore, Jenny would be willing to spend up to

$210,000 to learn additional information before
making a decision.
 Using Decision Trees
 Can be used as visual aids to
structure and solve sequential
decision problems
 Especially beneficial when the
complexity of the problem grows
Decision Trees
 Three types of “nodes”
 Decision nodes - represented by squares (□)
 Chance nodes - represented by circles (Ο)
 Terminal nodes - represented by triangles (optional)
 Solving the tree involves pruning all but the best
decisions at decision nodes, and finding expected
values of all possible states of nature at chance
nodes
 Create the tree from left to right
 Solve the tree from right to left
Example Decision Tree

Chance
Event 1
node
Decision 1 Event 2
ion
node Decis Event 3
Dec
is ion 2
Jenny Lind Decision Tree

Small Box Office

$200,000

Sign with Movie Co. Medium Box Office

$1,000,000

Large Box Office

$3,000,000

Small Box Office

$900,000

Sign with TV Network Medium Box Office

$900,000

Large Box Office

$900,000
Jenny Lind Decision Tree

Small Box Office

EMV .3 $200,000
?
Sign with Movie Co. .6 Medium Box Office
$1,000,000
EMV .1
? Large Box Office
$3,000,000

Small Box Office

EMV .3 $900,000
?
Sign with TV Network .6 Medium Box Office
$900,000
.1
Large Box Office
$900,000
Jenny Lind Decision Tree - Solved

Small Box Office

EMV= .3 $200,000
960,000
Sign with Movie Co. .6 Medium Box Office
$1,000,000
EMV= .1
960,000 Large Box Office
$3,000,000

Small Box Office

EMV= .3 $900,000
900,000
Sign with TV Network .6 Medium Box Office
$900,000
.1
Large Box Office
$900,000
 Class Exercise: A Glass Factory
AAglass
glassfactory
factoryspecializing
specializingin
incrystal
crystalis
isexperiencing
experiencingaa
substantial
substantialbacklog,
backlog,and
andthe
thefirm's
firm'smanagement
managementis is
considering
consideringthree
threecourses
coursesof ofaction:
action:
A)
A) Arrange
Arrangefor
forsubcontracting
subcontracting
B)
B) Construct
Constructnewnewfacilities
facilities
C)
C) Do
Donothing
nothing(no
(nochange)
change)

The
Thecorrect
correctchoice
choicedepends
dependslargely
largelyupon
upondemand,
demand,which
which
may
maybebelow,
low,medium,
medium,ororhigh.
high. By
Byconsensus,
consensus,management
management
estimates
estimatesthetherespective
respectivedemand
demandprobabilities
probabilitiesas
as0.1,
0.1,0.5,
0.5,
and
and0.4.
0.4.

Given
Giventhe
thepayoffs
payoffson
onthe
thenext
nextpage,
page,manually
manuallycreate
createand
and
solve
solvethis
thisproblem
problemusing
usingaadecision
decisiontree.
tree.
 A Glass Factory: The Payoff Table
The
The management
management estimates
estimates the the profits
profits when
when
choosing
choosing from
from the
the three
three alternatives
alternatives (A,
(A, B,
B, and
and
C)
C) under
under the
the differing
differing probable
probable levels
levels of
of
demand.
demand. These
These profits,
profits, in
in thousands
thousands of of dollars
dollars
are
are presented
presented inin the
the table
table below:
below:
0.1 0.5 0.4
Low Medium High
A 10 50 90
B -120 25 200
C 20 40 60
Class Exercise: Drawing a Decision Tree
A Gambling Referendum
AAgambling
gambling referendum
referendum has has been
been placed
placed on on the
the
ballot
ballot in
in River
River City.
City. ABCABC Entertainment
Entertainment is is
considering
considering whether
whether or or not
not toto submit
submit aa bid bid to to
manage
manage the the new
new gambling
gambling business.
business. ABC ABC must must
decide
decide whether
whether or or not
not toto hire
hire aa market
market research
research firmfirm
(Gallup).
(Gallup). IfIf Gallup
Gallup is is hired,
hired, they
they willwill obtain
obtain aa
prediction
prediction that
that the
the referendum
referendum will will either
either pass
pass oror fail.
fail.
Following
Following this,
this, they
they will
will learn
learn ifif their
their bid
bid is
is aa winning
winning
one.
one. Set
Set upup the
the decision
decision tree tree with
with all
all event
event nodes
nodes
and
and decision
decision nodes,
nodes, and and label
label all
all branches.
branches. Do Do not
not
include
include anyany probabilities
probabilities or or payoffs.
payoffs.
Problem: Marketing Cellular Phones
The design and product-testing phase has just been
completed for Sonorola’s new line of cellular phones.

Three alternatives are being considered for a

marketing/production strategy for this product:
1. Aggressive (A)
• Major commitment from the firm
• Major capital expenditure
• Large inventories of all models
• Major global marketing campaign
 2. Basic (B)
• Move current production to Osaka
• Modify current line in Tokyo
• Inventories for only most popular items
• Only local or regional advertising
3. Cautious (C)
• Use excess capacity on existing phone
lines to produce new products
• Minimum of new tooling
• Production satisfies demand
• Advertising at local dealer discretion
Management decides to categorize the level of
demand as either strong (S) or weak (W).
Managements best estimate of the
probability of a strong or weak market.

Net profits measured in millions of dollars.

The optimal decision if you are risk-indifferent is to

select B which yields the highest expected payoff.
Problems
 Brillant
 ..\..\QUIZZES\Prodman
\DECISON TREE assign.doc
 ..\..\QUIZZES\Prodman
\LP decision tree.doc
Using TreePlan To Solve Decision
Tree Problems With Excel

 Use TreePlan, an add-in for Excel, to set up

and solve decision tree problems.
 TreePlan program consists of single Excel
add-in file, TREEPLAN.XLA, which can be
found on CD-ROM that accompanies the
M&W text.
Installing TreePlan
 Insert student CD Rom for M&W text
 Click on Start
 Click on Run
 Type: d:\html\Treeplan\Treeplan.xla

(Note: If “d” is not your CD Rom drive, replace

the “d” with the appropriate drive name.)
 Select “Enable macros”
 You are done!
Using TreePlan
 Creating a Decision Tree Using TreePlan
Once TreePlan is installed and loaded, follow
these steps to set up and solve decision tree
problems.
 Starting TreePlan:
 Start Excel and open a blank worksheet.

 Place cursor in cell B1. (This is important!)

 Select Tools|Decision Tree from Excel’s

main menu.
In the resulting dialog, click on New Tree.

By default, a tree is displayed with 2 decision

nodes. To add another node, click on the decision
node and hit Ctrl-t to bring up a menu in which
you can select the Add Branch option.
After labeling the three branches, replace the
terminal node with a random event node by
clicking on the terminal node and hitting Ctrl-t to
bring up the menu from which you will select
Change to event node and two branches.
 Here is the resulting decision tree:

By default, the probabilities for each of

the 2 random events are 0.5.
Repeat the last few steps for remaining decisions.

Initial decision Event node

node. Choose with states
from three of nature
alternatives. branches.

Terminal node
(sinceTerminal
it is not positions
followed by
another node)
APPENDING THE PROBABILITIES
AND TERMINAL VALUES

Now we must append some additional

information in order to use this decision tree to
find the optimal decision.
Assign the terminal value (the return associated
with each terminal position).
Additionally, probabilities will be assigned to each
branch emanating from each circular node.
First change the probabilities from 0.5 to:

=B1

=C1
Next, change the terminal values:
=B5

=C5

=B6

=C6

=B7

=C7
FOLDING BACK

Using a decision tree to find the optimal solution is called

“solving the tree.”
To solve a decision tree, one works backward (i.e., from
right to left) by folding back the tree.
First the terminal branches are folded back by calculating
an expected value for each terminal node. For example,

Expected terminal value = 30(0.45) + (-8)(0.55) = 9.10

 Next, choose the alternative that yields the
highest expected terminal value.
Of the three
expected
values, choose
12.85, the
branch
associated with
the Basic
strategy.

This decision is indicated in the TreePlan by

the number 2 in the decision node.
Class Exercise in Creating a
Decision Tree: A Glass Factory

•• Repeat
Repeat the
the previous
previous exercise
exercise using
using
TreePlan.
TreePlan.

•• Vary
Vary the
the inputs
inputs to
to determine
determine when
when the
the
optimal
optimal decision
decision will
will change.
change.