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Mean and Variance

Here are the steps to solve these problems: 1) Construct the probability distribution: X: 1 2 3 P(X): 10/33 1/3 12/33 2) Find the mean: E(X) = (1*10/33) + (2*1/3) + (3*12/33) = 2 3) Find the variance: Var(X) = E[(X-E(X))^2] = (1-2)^2*(10/33) + (2-2)^2*(1/3) + (3-2)^2*(12/33) = 1 1) Construct the probability distribution: X

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Rossel Jane Campillo
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234 views

Mean and Variance

Here are the steps to solve these problems: 1) Construct the probability distribution: X: 1 2 3 P(X): 10/33 1/3 12/33 2) Find the mean: E(X) = (1*10/33) + (2*1/3) + (3*12/33) = 2 3) Find the variance: Var(X) = E[(X-E(X))^2] = (1-2)^2*(10/33) + (2-2)^2*(1/3) + (3-2)^2*(12/33) = 1 1) Construct the probability distribution: X

Uploaded by

Rossel Jane Campillo
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Mean and Variance of a Discrete

Probability Distribution

Prepared by:
Rossel Jane Campillo - Tapere
Given the values of the variables X and Y,
evaluate the following summations.
𝑋1 = 4 𝑋2 = 2 𝑋3 = 5 𝑋4 = 1
𝑌1 = 2 𝑌2 = 1 𝑌3 = 0 𝑌4 = 2

1. σ 𝑋 2. σ 𝑌 3. σ 𝑋 𝑌

4. σ(𝑋 + 𝑌) 5. σ 4𝑋𝑌
ACTIVITY
 Step 1: Construct the probability distribution
for the random variable X representing the
number of spots that would appear.
 Step 2: Multiply the value of the random
variable X by the corresponding probability.
 Step 3: Add the results obtained in Step 2.
ACTIVITY
 Step 4: Subtract the result from each value of
the random variable X.
 Step 5: Square the results obtained in Step 4.
 Step 6: Multiply the results obtained in Step 5
by the corresponding probability.
 Step 7: Get the sum of the results obtained in
Step 6.
ACTIVITY
 Consider rolling a die. What is the
average number of spots that would
appear?
 The probabilities that a surgeon

operates on 3,4,5,6 or 7 patients in


any day are 0.15, 0.10, 0.20, 0.25
and 0.30 respectively.
ACTIVITY
 The probabilities that a customer
will buy 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5 items in a
grocery store are 3/10, 1/10, 1/10,
2/10 and 3/10.
 The probabilities that will borrow

1,2,3 or 4 books are 0.45, 0.30,


0.15 and 0.10 respectively.
Expected Value and Variance

 All probability distributions are


characterized by an expected value
(mean) and a variance (standard
deviation squared).
Analysis:
 What is mean?
 What is variance?
 What are the steps in computing the
mean of the probability distribution or a
random variable? How about the
variance?
Expected value of a random variable

 Expected value is just the average or mean (µ) of


random variable x.

 It’s sometimes called a “weighted average”


because more frequent values of X are weighted
more highly in the average.

 It’s also how we expect X to behave on-average


over the long run (“frequentist” view again).
Steps in Finding the mean:
 Step 1: Construct the probability
distribution for the random variable X
representing the number of spots that
would appear.
 Step 2: Multiply the value of the random
variable X by the corresponding
probability.
 Step 3: Add the results obtained in Step 2.
Expected value, formally

𝐄 𝐗 = ෍ 𝑋 ⋅ 𝑃𝑋
Symbol Interlude
 E(X) = µ
 these symbols are used interchangeably
Expected Value
 Expected value is an extremely useful
concept for good decision-making!
Expected value isn’t
everything though…
 Take the hit new show “Deal or No Deal”
 Everyone know the rules?
 Let’s say you are down to two cases left. ₱1
and ₱400,000. The banker offers you
₱200,000.
 So, Deal or No Deal?
How to decide?
Variance!
• If you take the deal, the variance/standard
deviation is 0.
•If you don’t take the deal, what is average
deviation from the mean?
•What’s your gut guess?
Symbol Interlude
 Var(X)= 2
 SD(X) = 
 these symbols are used interchangeably
 Variance and standard deviation
described the amount of spread,
dispersion or variability of the items in a
distribution.
Steps in finding the Variance
and Standard Deviation
 Find the mean of the probability distribution.
 Subtract from the mean from each value of
the random variable X.
 Square the results obtained in Step 2.
 Multiply the results obtained in Step 3 by the
corresponding probability.
 Get the sum of the results obtained in Step 4
Formula for the Variance and
Standard Deviation
Variance
2 σ 2
𝜎 = (𝑋 − 𝜇) ∙ 𝑃(𝑋)
Standard Deviation

𝜎= ෍(𝑋 − 2
𝜇) ∙ 𝑃(𝑋)
Do this!
Find the Mean and Variance
2.
1.
X P(X) X∙P(X) X P(X) X∙P(X)
1 1/7 1 3/10
6 1/7 2 1/10
11 3/7 3 2/10
16 1/7 4 2/10
21 1/7 5 2/10
Do this!
Find the Mean and Variance
4
3.
X P(X) X∙P(X) X P(X) X∙P(X)
3 0.15 1 4/9
6 0.35 3 2/9
8 0.40 5 1/9
10 0.10 7 2/9
Individual:
Solve the following:
1. Find the mean and variance of the probability distribution
of the random variable X, which can take the only the
values 1,2,3 given that P(1)=10/33, P(2)= 1/3 and P(3)=
12/33
2. Find the mean and variance of the probability distribution
of the random variable X, which can only take the values
3,5 and 7 given that P(3)=7/30, P(5)=1/3 and P(7)=13/30
3. Find the mean and variance of the probability distribution
of the random variable X if P(X)=1/10 for X=1,2,3,…, 10.
4. Find the mean of the probability distribution of the
𝑥+1
random variable X if 𝑃 𝑋 = for X = 1,2,3,4 and 5.
20

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