Chapter 05 (Syllabus) Chapter 08 (By Griffin & Pustay) : Foreign Exchange and International Financial Markets
Chapter 05 (Syllabus) Chapter 08 (By Griffin & Pustay) : Foreign Exchange and International Financial Markets
3) Assess the different ways firms can use the spot and forward markets
to settle international transactions.
By:
1. Inflation Rates
2. Interest Rates
3. Country’s Current Account / Balance of Payments
4. Public/Government Debt
5. Terms of Trade
6. Political Stability & Performance
The Economics of Foreign Exchange
By:
KOWSHIK BARUA
ID: 13302 109
The Overview of
Foreign Exchange Market
What Is Forex Market?
Buy, sell, exchange, and speculation on currencies by participants.
Global network of computers.
Working 24 hours in every working day.
Who Are The Participants of Forex Market?
Participants
USD
EUR
4.06% 3.00% 2.82% JPY
7.52% GBP
12.71% 51.49% AUD
CAD
18.40% CHF
The Role of Bank in Shaping
The Structure of Forex Market
The Role of Commercial Banks
Enabling Speculators :
To correctly predict changes in the currency’s market value
Enabling Arbitrageurs :
To obtain riskless profits
The Role of Bank in Shaping The
Structure of Forex Market
By:
NURUL ALAM
ID: 13302 106
Spot and Forward Markets
Spot Market
Consists of foreign-exchange transactions that are to be
consummated immediately (Within TWO days after the
trade date)
Forward Market
Example:
A Bangladeshi company buys Tk 1,00,00,000.00 computer
equipment from a Japanese company and is given 90 days
to pay.
Both parties agreed with a bank who agreed to exchange Tk
for Yen in 90 days at 1.30 Yen for 1 Tk. Now whatever is
the spot rate or future rate, they make transaction at this
agreed upon rate (Forward Rate) after 90 days.
Spot and Forward Markets
Forward price < Spot price. Forward price > Spot price.
Here (assumed),
Exchange Rate = 1 British pound to US Dollar
Pf = three month forward price = $1.5203
Ps = spot price = $1.5212
n = the number of periods in a year = 4 (as 12 month/3 month = 4
month)
Spot and Forward Markets
Annualized forward premium or discount
Let’s Practice –
What will be the annual forward premium or discount rate if you want to pay
your US supplier after 180 days?
Currency TK
1 USD (Today) 82.00
1 – month Forward 84.10
3 – month Forward 83.60
6 – month Forward 83.80
Two Other Mechanisms Of
Foreign-Exchange Market
By:
MAHABUB ALAM
ID: 13302 102
Two other mechanisms of
foreign-exchange market
To allow firms to obtain foreign exchange in the future
1. Currency future
2. Currency option
Currency future:
A contract that resembles a forward contract
For a standard amount on a standard delivery date
A firm must complete the transaction by buying or selling
the specified amount of foreign currency at the specified
price and time Firms can make an offsetting transaction
Two other mechanisms of
foreign-exchange market
Currency future:
Example:
Call Option
Grants the right to buy the foreign currency in
question
Put Option:
Grants right to sell the foreign currency in question.
Two other mechanisms of
foreign-exchange market
Suppose,
Best Buy purchases Sony PlayStation 3 game consoles for ¥ 800
million for delivery three months in the future
Best Buy can go to its bank and contract to buy the ¥ 800 million in
three months
Buy the yen based on the yen’s current price in the three-month
forward wholesale market
The firm is able to protect itself from increases in the yen’s price
Why knowing forward price is important?
Represents the marketplace’s aggregate prediction of
the spot price of the exchange rate in the future
By:
ABDUL KARIM
ID: 13302 090
Arbitrage
1. Arbitrage of Goods.
2. Arbitrage of Money.
Arbitrage of goods
By:
Three-point arbitrage
The buying and selling of the three different currencies to
make a riskless profit E.g. New York, Tokyo, and London
Forex market (same exchange rates for all market)
£ 1 = US$ 2.00; US$ 1= ¥ 120; £ 1 = ¥ 200
No opportunity of two-point arbitrage (all the markets sell at the
same price)
Opportunity for three-point arbitrage
Riskless profit of £ 0.20
Three-point arbitrage
Able to make profits through three-point arbitrage
whenever the cost of buying a currency directly differs from the cross rate of
exchange
Cross rate
An exchange rate between two currencies calculated through the use of a third
currency
Usually the US $ is the primary third currency used in calculating cross rates
Direct quote between ponds and yen = £ 1 /¥ 200
Cross rate between ponds and yen = £ 1 US/$ 2 * US$ 1 /¥ 120= £ 1 /¥ 240
The difference between the exchange rate & cross rate Opportunity for
arbitrage
The market for the three currencies will be in equilibrium No arbitrage profit
New York investors would want to earn higher returns available in London
They must convert their dollars to pound to invest in London
They will get the return on investment in three-month BUT exchange rate risk
What if the pound’s value were to fall during that three-month period?
Possibility of wiping out the gains earned by higher interest rate
NY investors can avoid exchange rate risk by using the forward market
If an investor has;-
Investment money = $ 1,000,000
Spot exchange rate of 1 pound = US$ 2
Three-month forward rate of 1 pound = US$ 1.99
Covered interest arbitrage example
Why should interest rates vary among countries in the first place?
The question was answered by Yale economist, Irving Fisher in 1930
Country’s nominal interest rate = the real interest rate + expected inflation in that country
National differences in expected inflation rates yield differences in nominal interest rates
among countries
International Fisher effect & covered-interest arbitrage
An increase in a country’s expected inflation rate implies higher interest rates in that
country.
This will lead to either A shrinking of the forward premium or a widening of the forward
discount of a country’s currency in the Forex market.
Because of this linkage between inflation and expected change in exchange rate IBERS
carefully monitor countries’ inflation trends.
E.g. a fixed exchange rate system functions poorly if inflation rates vary widely among
countries
Importance of arbitrage activities
By:
RISHA CHAKMA
ID: 13302 079
Major International Banks
International Banking
Correspondent relationship:
o An agent relationship whereby one bank acts as a
correspondent or agent for another bank in the first bank’s
home country.
o E.g. a U.S. bank could be the correspondent for a Danish
bank in the United States by Paying or collecting foreign
funds, providing credit information, honoring letters of
credit.
o Each bank maintains accounts at the other bank
denominated in the local currency
Major International Banks
Ways of establishing overseas banking operations:
Subsidiary bank:
If it is separately incorporated from the parent
Branch bank:
If it is not separately incorporated from the parent
Affiliated bank:
An overseas operation in which it takes part ownership in
conjunction with a local or foreign partner
Major International Banks
Commercial Banking Services
By:
Eurodollars
Euroloans are often quoted on the basis of LIBOR, the interest rate
that London banks charge each other for short-term Eurocurrency
loans.
The Eurocurrency Market
The Euroloan Market
Euroloan market is the low-cost source of loans for
large, creditworthy borrowers (such as Governments
& large MNEs)
Reasons:
1. Free of costly government banking regulations
2. Large transactions
3. Lower risk premium
The Eurocurrency Market
International Banking Facility (IBF)
An entity of a US bank that is legally distinct from the
bank’s domestic operations that may offer only
international banking services
Created in response to complaints of US banks
about reserve requirements and regulations
imposed by the Federal Reserve Board
Which caused suffering from competition with
European and Asian banks in issuing dollar
denominated international loans
Do not need to observe the numerous US domestic
banking regulations
International Bond Market
By:
International Bond
Foreign
Eurobond
bonds
International Bond Market
Two types of international bonds
1)Foreign bonds
The Euro
The US Dollar
Syndicates of international banks, securities firms, and commercial
banks put together complex packages of international bonds to
serve the borrowing needs of large, creditworthy borrowers
International Bond Market
Global bond
A large, liquid financial asset that can be traded anywhere at
any time
Pioneered by the World Bank
Sold $1.5 billion of US dollar-denominated global bonds in
North America, Europe and Japan and Succeed in lowering
its interest costs on the bond issue by 0.225 percentage point.
0.225 percentage point X $1.5 billion = the bank reduced its
annual financial costs by $3,375,000
By:
URMI CHOWDHURY
ID: 13302 125
Global Equity Markets
Global Equity Markets
Established firms:
When expanding into a foreign market, a firm may choose to raise
capital for its foreign subsidiary in the
foreign market
E.g. The Walt Disney Company – initially sold 51% of its
Disneyland Paris project to French investors
Global Equity Markets
Country Funds:
By:
ATAUL ALIM
ID: 13302 110
Offshore Financial Centers
The June 2000 IMF paper then listed three major attributes of
offshore financial centre.
Money laundering
Tax avoidance