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PROBABILITY
Probability is one of those challenging topics. In this Topic, I will try to
demystify and clarify everything. After finishing this topic, you should
be able to attempt any exam question.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1. THEORETICAL PROBABILITY
2. ADDITION OF PROBABILITIES
3. SUBTRACTION OF PROBABILITIES
4. MULTIPLICATION OF PROBBILITIES
5. TREE DIAGRAMS
6. OUTCOME TABLES
 1. THEORETICAL PROBABILITY
The formula for finding probability is

Prob =

Let me explain by first demonstrating an example

i) There are 4 red balls, 3 blue balls and 2 white balls in a bag.
What is the probability of picking
a) a red ball
b) a white ball
c) a blue ball
Solution:
The first step is to calculate the total available balls
4 + 3 + 2 = 9 ball [total]
a) Probability of picking a red ball

P(red) =
There are 4 red balls out of 9 balls

b) Probability of picking a white ball

P(white) =

c) Probability of picking a blue ball

P(blue) = =

Always reduce probabilities to their lowest term

 ii) In a group of five boys, three play soccer and two play hockey.
One boy is chosen at random, write down the probability that he
is a soccer player. [N2001\P1 Z]

Solution
Total = 5
Expected (soccer) = 3

P(soccer) =

This is how simple we can find the probabilities. This marks end of our
first tutorial on probability
 2. ADDITION OF PROBABILITIES
Probabilities are added when one is forced to make a choice
Keywords are:
Either, or
Let’s dive into an example
i) There are five identical balls except for color. 3 are black, 1 is
green and another is grey.
Find the probability that one picks either a black ball or a green
ball

Solution

Total balls = 5

P(black) = , P(green) =

Therefore, our answer is +

=

You can be given a question with calculated probabilities and be

required to find number of balls or probability of choice
ii) The bag contains red, blue and green counters all of which are
identical except for color. A counter is picked at random.
The probability that it is red is 0,2 and the probability that it is
blue is 0,5
Calculate the probability that the counter picked is either blue
or green

Solution
You can see that the probability of picking green ball is missing.
Always remember that the total of probabilities is 1

P(green) = 1 – 0,2 – 0,5

= 0,3

The Probability of either a blue or a green ball is

0,5 + 0,3
= 0,8

iii) There are 500 students at a school. The probability of chosing a

girl at random is . Calculate the number of boys at the
school.

Solution
Number of girls (Use the probability)

= × 500
= 150 girls
To find boys, just subtract from the total or use the
probability of chosing a boy [ ]

500 – 150 = 350 boys

 3. SUBTRACTION OF PROBABILITIES
The keywords for subtraction of probabilities are
‘is not’ , ‘neither, nor’
Example

i) The probability that Sihle will bring a calculator is

Find the probability that Sihle will not bring a
calculator for the lesson.

Solution:
We subtract from 1

=1-

ii) There are 3 blue counters, 4 red counters and 2 grey

counters, all identical except for color. Find the
probability of not picking a red counter

Solution :

First calculate the probability of picking a red counter

and then subtract from 1

P (red) =
P (not red) = 1 -
=
 4. MULTIPLICATION OF PROBBILITIES
This usually applies to independent events.
Keywords are;
Both, and
Examples
i) In a group of five boys, three play soccer and two play hockey.
Two boys are chosen at random, calculate the probability that
one plays soccer and another play hockey

Solution
First find the probabilities of choosing a soccer and a hockey
player .

P (soccer) = , P (hockey) =

Then multiply the probabilities (because keyword is and)

P (soccer and hockey) = ×

ii) There are 3 white balls, 2 red balls and a black ball in a bag.
Two balls are picked at random, with replacement.
Find the probability that
a) Both balls are white
 b) One is black and another is red

Solution

a) Keyword is both

P (white) = =

P (both white) = × =

b) Keyword is and

P (black) = , P (red) = =

P ( black and red) = ×

=
NB: with replacement does not affect the denominator
In the next section we will look at the tree diagram and outcome tables
 5. TREE DIAGRAMS
Tree diagrams are used to represent the probabilities. It makes it easy to
calculate probabilities of different outcomes.
There are two things to note; with replacement doesn’t affect the
denominator since the total will remain the same. Without replacement
affect the denominator since the total changes after the first occurrence

Example:
i) A bag contains 3 black and 2 white balls. Two balls are taken
from the bag at random, without replacement . By drawing a
tree diagram or otherwise, calculate the probability that
a) Both balls are black
b) At least one is white
c) Two balls are of the same color
Solution
First represent all the information on a tree diagram
2
Black
4

3
Black
5 2
white
4
3
Black
4
2 White
5
1 White
4

1st Pick 2nd Pick

The tree diagram shows that at the first pick the balls were 5. i.e. 2
white and 3 black. Your probabilities on the same branch must add up to
1.
The second pick, the total balls were now 4 since its without
replacement.
In case that one picks a black ball, bothe the total and the black ball will
be subtracted. This means we now have 4 balls in total of which black
balls are now 2. On the white branch, shows if one picks a white ball,
the result is, 4 balls of which white ball is 1 (another was picked at the
first occurrence)
Now we want to attempt questions

a) Both balls are black

(follow the black branch)

P (BB) = 1st pick × 2nd pick

= ×

= =

b) At least one ball is white

Either you first pick a white and then a white P(WW) = × =

Or a white and then a black ball P(WB) = × =
 Or a black and then a white ball P(BW) = × =

[add probabilities]

P (at least a white) = + +

=
You can also use the shorter method of subtracting ‘both are
blacks’ occurrence.

P(both not blacks) = 1 – P (BB) = 1 -

=

c) Two balls are of the same color.

Either Both are blacks or both are white

P(BB) + P(WW)

= +

=
 6. OUTCOME TABLES
Outcome tables are usually used in
- Coin Tossing
- Dice throwing
- Darts
Coin Tossing
There are only two possible outcomes: Head or Tail.
i) Two unbiased coins are tossed and the outcome recorded in a
table
a) Complete the outcome table given. H is head and T is tail.

Coin 1
Coin H T
2
H HH
T TT

You can see that the HH represents that both coins showed a Head side
and TT both coins showed Tail side. The missing values are Head for
coin 1 and Tail for coin 2 and Tail for coin 1 and Head for coin 2. Write
them in order
 Coin 1
Coin H T
2
H HH TH
T HT TT

b) Using the table or otherwise, find the probability of getting

i) 2 heads
ii) Different outcomes
iii) At least one tail

Solution
Use the outcome table

i) There are four outcomes count the outcome where

there are HH over total

ii) Different outcomes mean a Head and a tail. Count

the outcome HT and TH
= =

iii) At least one tail. Count outcomes with a T. that is

HT, TT, TH
=
 Dice Throwing
There are six possible outcomes on a die
Example
ii) A fair die is thrown twice and the outcome are noted. Find the
probability that
a) The total is greater than 5
b) The same number on the dice is shown

Solution:
Use Outcome tables and add

1st throw

1 2 3 4 5 6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
2nd throw 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
3 4 5 6 7 8 9
4 5 6 7 8 9 10
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
6 7 8 9 10 11 12

a) P (total > 5)
Count the outcomes with values greater than 5. There are 26
outcomes greater than 5

=
 =

b) P(same number)
There are 6 numbers on dice. There are 6 possibilities of getting
the same number. Total outcomes are 36 (as shown by the outcome
table)