eCommerce Model - Complete Strictly Confidential

Table of Contents
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© Corporate Finance Institute. All rights reserved. Startup year Terminal year
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Balance Sheet Check OK OK OK OK OK OK OK

Assumptions

Site Traffic (Avg monthly visits)

Email 0 5,000 10,000 20,000 30,000 50,000 60,000
Organic Search 10,000 50,000 100,000 130,000 155,000 170,000 180,000
Paid Search 30,000 20,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000
Affiliates 20,000 10,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000
Total Monthly Visits 60,000 85,000 125,000 165,000 200,000 235,000 255,000
Growth Rate 41.7% 47.1% 32.0% 21.2% 17.5% 8.5%

Site Traffic (Annual) 12

Email 0 60,000 120,000 240,000 360,000 600,000 720,000
Organic Search 120,000 600,000 1,200,000 1,560,000 1,860,000 2,040,000 2,160,000
Paid Search 360,000 240,000 120,000 120,000 120,000 120,000 120,000
Affiliates 240,000 120,000 60,000 60,000 60,000 60,000 60,000
Total Annual Visits 720,000 1,020,000 1,500,000 1,980,000 2,400,000 2,820,000 3,060,000

Conversion Rates
Email 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0%
Organic Search 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%
Paid Search 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2%
Affiliates 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%
Total Monthly Visits 2.8% 2.5% 2.4% 2.6% 2.7% 2.9% 3.0%

Orders Placed
Email 0 3,600 7,200 14,400 21,600 36,000 43,200
Organic Search 2,400 12,000 24,000 31,200 37,200 40,800 43,200
Paid Search 7,920 5,280 2,640 2,640 2,640 2,640 2,640
Affiliates 9,600 4,800 2,400 2,400 2,400 2,400 2,400
Total Orders Placed 19,920 25,680 36,240 50,640 63,840 81,840 91,440

Order Details
Average item value (gross) 250 250 250 250 250 250 250
# of items per order 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7
Average markdown 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10%
Average promotion/discount 20% 18% 15% 12% 10% 8% 8%
Cost of Goods Sold (Gross Product Marin) 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50%

Average Gross order value 275 300 325 350 375 400 425
Average Net order value 193 216 244 273 300 328 349

Customers
Churn Rate 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25%
Opening active customer base 0 14,940 27,765 42,604 59,133 76,030 91,402
Plus new customers 19,920 22,080 29,040 36,240 42,240 45,840 48,240
Subtotal 19,920 37,020 56,805 78,844 101,373 121,870 139,642
Less churned customers 4,980 9,255 14,201 19,711 25,343 30,467 34,911
Closing customer base 14,940 27,765 42,604 59,133 76,030 91,402 104,732

Marketing Expenses
Variable
Email (cost per click) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Organic Search (cost per click) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Paid Search (cost per click) 3.00 3.25 3.25 3.50 3.50 3.75 4.00
Affiliates (cost per click) 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00
Average 3.17 1.35 0.46 0.36 0.30 0.27 0.25

Order Fulfilment
Variable
Freight/shipping per order 12.00 10.00 9.00 9.00 8.00 8.00 7.00
Labor/handling per order 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00
Total 17.00 15.00 14.00 14.00 13.00 13.00 12.00

Fixed
Warehouse rent 150,000 150,000 150,000 250,000 250,000 500,000 500,000

General & Administrative

Fixed
Office rent 100,000 100,000 100,000 200,000 200,000 200,000 200,000
Salaries, wages & Benefits 500,000 700,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 3,000,000
Professional fees 100,000 100,000 100,000 200,000 200,000 200,000 200,000
Other 100,000 100,000 200,000 200,000 400,000 400,000 400,000
Total 800,000 1,000,000 1,400,000 1,800,000 2,300,000 2,800,000 3,800,000

Balance Sheet Items

Current Assets
Accounts Receivable Days 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
Inventory Days 120 100 90 90 90 90 90
Inventory Turns 365 3.0 3.7 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1

Current Liabilities
Accounts Payable Days 60 50 40 30 30 30 30

Capital Expenditures
Technology Development 300,000 50,000 50,000 500,000 50,000 1,000,000 100,000
Office Equipment 200,000 50,000 50,000 50,000 200,000 100,000 500,000
Acquisitions 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Depreciation
Technology - Straight-line Years 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
Office Equipment - Straight-line Years 5 5 5 5 5 5 5

Financing
Interest Rate 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Debt Issued (Repaid) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Equity Raised (Repurchased) 8,000,000 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dividends Paid 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Valuation
Tax Rate 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25%
Cost of Capital / Discount Rate 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
Terminal Value Exit Multiple 8.0x

Income Statement

Gross Revenue 5,478,000 7,704,000 11,778,000 17,724,000 23,940,000 32,736,000 38,862,000

Discounts, Promotions, Markdowns (1,643,400) (2,157,120) (2,944,500) (3,899,280) (4,788,000) (5,892,480) (6,995,160)
Net Revenue 3,834,600 5,546,880 8,833,500 13,824,720 19,152,000 26,843,520 31,866,840

Cost of Goods Sold 2,739,000 3,852,000 5,889,000 8,862,000 11,970,000 16,368,000 19,431,000
Gross Profit 1,095,600 1,694,880 2,944,500 4,962,720 7,182,000 10,475,520 12,435,840
Gross Margin 28.6% 30.6% 33.3% 35.9% 37.5% 39.0% 39.0%

Variable Operating Expenses

Marketing 2,280,000 1,380,000 690,000 720,000 720,000 750,000 780,000
Fulfilment 338,640 385,200 507,360 708,960 829,920 1,063,920 1,097,280
Total Variable Costs 2,618,640 1,765,200 1,197,360 1,428,960 1,549,920 1,813,920 1,877,280
Contribution Margin (1,523,040) (70,320) 1,747,140 3,533,760 5,632,080 8,661,600 10,558,560
Margin -39.7% -1.3% 19.8% 25.6% 29.4% 32.3% 33.1%

Fixed Operating Expenses

Fulfilment 150,000 150,000 150,000 250,000 250,000 500,000 500,000
General & Administrative 800,000 1,000,000 1,400,000 1,800,000 2,300,000 2,800,000 3,800,000
Total 950,000 1,150,000 1,550,000 2,050,000 2,550,000 3,300,000 4,300,000
EBITDA (2,473,040) (1,220,320) 197,140 1,483,760 3,082,080 5,361,600 6,258,560
Margin -64.5% -22.0% 2.2% 10.7% 16.1% 20.0% 19.6%

Depreciation 100,000 120,000 140,000 250,000 300,000 420,000 520,000

Interest 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Earnings Before Tax (2,573,040) (1,340,320) 57,140 1,233,760 2,782,080 4,941,600 5,738,560

Taxes 0 0 14,285 308,440 695,520 1,235,400 1,434,640

Net Income (2,573,040) (1,340,320) 42,855 925,320 2,086,560 3,706,200 4,303,920

Dividends Paid 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Balance Sheet

ASSETS
Current
Cash 4,954,646 3,344,792 2,992,993 2,886,117 4,448,738 6,668,315 10,325,123
Accounts Receivable 52,529 75,985 121,007 189,380 262,356 367,719 436,532
Inventory 900,493 1,055,342 1,452,082 2,185,151 2,951,507 4,035,945 4,791,205
Total 5,907,668 4,476,119 4,566,082 5,260,647 7,662,601 11,071,979 15,552,860
Technology 240,000 220,000 190,000 510,000 370,000 1,040,000 800,000
Property & Equipment 160,000 160,000 150,000 130,000 220,000 230,000 550,000
Total Assets 6,307,668 4,856,119 4,906,082 5,900,647 8,252,601 12,341,979 16,902,860
LIABILITIES & SHAREHOLDER EQUITY
Liabilities
Current
Revolver
Accounts Payable 880,708 769,479 776,587 845,832 1,111,226 1,494,404 1,751,365
Total 880,708 769,479 776,587 845,832 1,111,226 1,494,404 1,751,365
Debt 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total Liabilities 880,708 769,479 776,587 845,832 1,111,226 1,494,404 1,751,365
Shareholder Equity
Share Capital 8,000,000 8,000,000 8,000,000 8,000,000 8,000,000 8,000,000 8,000,000
Retained Earnings (2,573,040) (3,913,360) (3,870,505) (2,945,185) (858,625) 2,847,575 7,151,495
Total Shareholder Equity 5,426,960 4,086,640 4,129,495 5,054,815 7,141,375 10,847,575 15,151,495
Total Liabilities & Shareholder Equity 6,307,668 4,856,119 4,906,082 5,900,647 8,252,601 12,341,979 16,902,860

Check 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Cash Flow Statement

Cash from Operations

Net Income (2,573,040) (1,340,320) 42,855 925,320 2,086,560 3,706,200 4,303,920
Depreciation 100,000 120,000 140,000 250,000 300,000 420,000 520,000
Changes in non cash working capital
Accounts Receivable 52,529 23,456 45,022 68,373 72,976 105,363 68,813
Inventory 900,493 154,849 396,740 733,068 766,356 1,084,438 755,260
Accounts Payable 880,708 (111,228) 7,108 69,245 265,394 383,178 256,961
Total (2,545,354) (1,509,854) (251,799) 443,124 1,812,621 3,319,576 4,256,808

Cash Invested
Capital Expenditures 500,000 100,000 100,000 550,000 250,000 1,100,000 600,000
Acquisitions 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 500,000 100,000 100,000 550,000 250,000 1,100,000 600,000

Cash from Financing

Increase (decrease) in Debt 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Equity Issued (repurchased) 8,000,000 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dividends Paid 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 8,000,000 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total Cash 4,954,646 (1,609,854) (351,799) (106,876) 1,562,621 2,219,576 3,656,808

Opening balance 0 4,954,646 3,344,792 2,992,993 2,886,117 4,448,738 6,668,315
Increase (Decrease) 4,954,646 (1,609,854) (351,799) (106,876) 1,562,621 2,219,576 3,656,808
Closing balance 4,954,646 3,344,792 2,992,993 2,886,117 4,448,738 6,668,315 10,325,123

Supporting Schedules

Capital Assets

Opening Balance
Technology 0 240,000 220,000 190,000 510,000 370,000 1,040,000
Property & Equipment 0 160,000 160,000 150,000 130,000 220,000 230,000
Total 0 400,000 380,000 340,000 640,000 590,000 1,270,000

Additions
Technology 300,000 50,000 50,000 500,000 50,000 1,000,000 100,000
Property & Equipment 200,000 50,000 50,000 50,000 200,000 100,000 500,000
Total 500,000 100,000 100,000 550,000 250,000 1,100,000 600,000

Subtotal
Technology 300,000 290,000 270,000 690,000 560,000 1,370,000 1,140,000
Property & Equipment 200,000 210,000 210,000 200,000 330,000 320,000 730,000
Total 500,000 500,000 480,000 890,000 890,000 1,690,000 1,870,000

Depreciation
Technology
2016 60,000 60,000 60,000 60,000 60,000 0 0
2017 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 0
2018 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000
2019 100,000 100,000 100,000 100,000
2020 10,000 10,000 10,000
2021 200,000 200,000
2022 20,000
Subtotal 60,000 70,000 80,000 180,000 190,000 330,000 340,000

Property & Equipment

2016 40,000 40,000 40,000 40,000 40,000 0 0
2017 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 0
2018 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000
2019 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000
2020 40,000 40,000 40,000
2021 20,000 20,000
2022 100,000
Subtotal 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 110,000 90,000 180,000

Total 100,000 120,000 140,000 250,000 300,000 420,000 520,000

Closing Balance
Technology 240,000 220,000 190,000 510,000 370,000 1,040,000 800,000
Property & Equipment 160,000 160,000 150,000 130,000 220,000 230,000 550,000
Total 400,000 380,000 340,000 640,000 590,000 1,270,000 1,350,000

Debt Schedule
Opening Balance 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Debt Issued (Repaid) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Closing Balance 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Interest on Debt 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Customer Metrics

Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC) 130 137 137 143 143 149 155
Contribution Margin Per Order 38 51 67 84 100 115 124

Customer Lifetime Value (LTV) 152 204 269 336 398 460 496

LTV/CAC Ratio 1.2x 1.5x 2.0x 2.4x 2.8x 3.1x 3.2x

Payback (# of orders) 3.4 2.7 2.0 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.2

Valuation

EBIT (2,573,040) (1,340,320) 57,140 1,233,760 2,782,080 4,941,600 5,738,560

Net Operating Loss

Opening Balance 0 2,573,040 3,913,360 3,856,220 2,622,460 0 0
Current Loss 2,573,040 1,340,320 0 0 0 0 0
Sub Total 2,573,040 3,913,360 3,913,360 3,856,220 2,622,460 0 0
Loss Used 0 0 57,140 1,233,760 2,622,460 0 0
Closing Balance 2,573,040 3,913,360 3,856,220 2,622,460 0 0 0

Free Cash Flow

Earning Before Tax (2,573,040) (1,340,320) 57,140 1,233,760 2,782,080 4,941,600 5,738,560
Interest 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
EBIT (2,573,040) (1,340,320) 57,140 1,233,760 2,782,080 4,941,600 5,738,560
Less Taxes 0 0 0 0 39,905 1,235,400 1,434,640
Less Capex 500,000 100,000 100,000 550,000 250,000 1,100,000 600,000
Plus Depreciation 100,000 120,000 140,000 250,000 300,000 420,000 520,000
Less Changes in Working Capital 72,314 289,534 434,654 732,196 573,939 806,624 567,112
Unlevered Free Cash Flow (3,045,354) (1,609,854) (337,514) 201,564 2,218,236 2,219,576 3,656,808

DCF Valuation
NPV of Forecast 20% (1,098,526)
Terminal Value (EBITDA multiple) 8.0x 50,068,480
NPV of Terminal Value 13,973,194
Total Enterprise Value 12,874,668

EV/Revenue (2017E) 1.7x

% of Business Retained after raise 62%

Charts & Graphs

Revenue 5,478,000 7,704,000 11,778,000 17,724,000 23,940,000 32,736,000 38,862,000

Gross Margin 28.6% 30.6% 33.3% 35.9% 37.5% 39.0% 39.0%
EBITDA Margin -64.5% -22.0% 2.2% 10.7% 16.1% 20.0% 19.6%

Customer Acquisition Cost 130 137 137 143 143 149 155
Life Time Value 152 204 269 336 398 460 496
LTV/CAC 1.2x 1.5x 2.0x 2.4x 2.8x 3.1x 3.2x

Customer Acquisition Cost 130 137 137 143 143 149 155
Contribution Margin 38 51 67 84 100 115 124
Payback (# of orders) 3.4 2.7 2.0 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.2

Burn Rate (3,045,354) (1,609,854) (351,799) (106,876) 1,562,621 2,219,576 3,656,808

Cash Balance 8,000,000 4,954,646 3,344,792 2,992,993 2,886,117 4,448,738 6,668,315 10,325,123

$45,000,000 Revenue 100% $13,000,000 Burn Rate Cash Balance

EBITDA Margin $11,000,000
$35,000,000 Gross Margin 75%
$9,000,000
$25,000,000 50% $7,000,000
venue ($ millions)

Burn ($ millions)
MarginMargin

$5,000,000
$15,000,000 25%
$3,000,000
$5,000,000 0% $1,000,000
$45,000,000 Revenue 100% $13,000,000 Burn Rate Cash Balance
EBITDA Margin $11,000,000
$35,000,000 Gross Margin 75%
$9,000,000
$25,000,000 50% $7,000,000
Revenue ($ millions)

Burn ($ millions)
MarginMargin
$5,000,000
$15,000,000 25%
$3,000,000
$5,000,000 0% $1,000,000

-$1,000,000
-$5,000,000 -25%
-$3,000,000
-$15,000,000 -50% -$5,000,000
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2,016 2,017 2,018 2,019 2,020 2,021 2,022

$200 Customer Acquisition Cost 5.0 $600 Customer Acquisition Cost 5.0x
Contribution Margin Life Time Value
$180 4.5 4.5x
Payback (# of orders) $500 LTV/CAC
$160 4.0 4.0x
$140 3.5 3.5x
$400
$120 3.0 3.0x

LTV/CAC Ratio
Payback (# orders)
$100 2.5 $300 2.5x
$80 2.0 2.0x
$200
$60 1.5 1.5x
$40 1.0 1.0x
$100
$20 0.5 0.5x
$0 0.0 $0 0.0x
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022