Ca 584 A

To: Tom Donelson, Chairman, Americas PAC
From: JD Johannes, VCreek/AMG

Re: Arizona Presidential & Senate Poll Results
Donald Trump, and Nikki Haley lead Joe Biden in a test of Presidential General Election
matchups and Kari Lake leads in a potential U.S. Senate matchup.
Two key variables going forward are:
1. The 13% Undecided (Persuadable) voters.
2. The effect of increased volume, frequency and intensity of negative news coverage of
Trump as the media put more focus on the candidates/nominees.
In a ‘Head-to-Head’ ballot test, Trump
leads Biden 46% to 41% with 5% Unsure
and 8% indicating “Neither” even though
“Neither” was not directly offered as an
option. (Question text appended below)
In a second scenario with Robert F.
Kennedy, Jr. on the ballot, Trump dropped
to 40%, Biden 35%, Kennedy 16%, Unsure
6% and “Someone Else” 3%. Here again,
“Someone Else” was not directly offered as
an option.
In a test of a very wide ballot, Trump maintained at 40%, Biden dropped to 32%, and Kennedy
dropped to 9%. Joe Manchin received 4%, Cornell West 3%, Jill Stein 2%, Unsure 7% and 3%
indicated Someone Else.
On the last Presidential variation tested, Nikki Haley topped Joe Biden 37% to 30% with 8%
Unsure and 25% indicating Somone Else.
In a possible U.S. Senate General Election
matchup, Kari Lake came out on top with
41%, Ruben Gallego 35%, Kyrsten Sinema
16%, Unsure 7% and Someone Else 1%.
At this point, Republican Candidates have an
edge against Democrats in Arizona.
Republican candidates in Arizona likely have
a solid base of about 37%--40%. The
Biden/Democrat base waivers from a high of
41% to a low 30%.
Going forward in 2024, a first key point to consider in the is the 8% who indicated Neither when
combined with 5% Unsure in the initial ballot test. If Neither was an offered option to
respondents, it would likely have scored higher. The 13% of currently uncommitted voters will
be a key variable. A second is the potential for the news media to increase the volume of
negative coverage of Trump.
Arizona has ~3.4 Million Probable Presidential Year Voters. More than a 1,000,000 of Arizona’s
Probable Presidential Year Voters are registered as Independent/Unaffiliated/Other/Etc., and are
the voters most susceptible to Negativity Bias. The current news media coverage of Trump is
not nearly as negative and pervasive as it was in 2018 or even late 2020. The persuadable voters
may have become immune to negative coverage of Trump, or it may shift them against Trump.
The GOP has been recently put an emphasis on Advance Voting and GOTV—which it must do.
But if the GOP forgets and loses the persuadable voters, even the maximum turnout of nearly 1.3
Million Republicans still may not be enough carry Arizona.
Methodology:
• CI = 3.71
• Dec 1-8, 2023
• N= 694 Completed Surveys of Probable General Election Voters via Live Calls to 626 Cell and 68
Land Lines were able to be joined back to the database of voters for weighting and stratification by
proprietary voter model score based on correlations of consumer behavior. Raw Respondents by
Registration were 41% GOP, 31% Democrat, 26% Unaffiliated/Ind/Other/Etc.
• ABOUT: VCreek/AMG has conducted Polling, Data Analysis and Research for political clients
ranging from Federal and Statewide campaigns to municipal and legislative campaigns as well as
corporations, public policy groups and political action committees since 2012. VCreek/AMG’s
Principal, JD Johannes, has twenty-five years of experience in campaign management, campaign
consulting and advertising in campaigns across the U.S.
• DISCLOSURES: This poll was paid for by Americas PAC, an Independent Expenditure Committee
that supports Republican Candidates. Media inquiries should be directed to Tom Donelson,
Chairman of Americas PAC.
QUESTION TEXT
Q Thank you. Looking forward to the Presidential Election next November in 2024. If the
election for President were being held today, and If The ONLY candidates on the ballot were Joe
Biden the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would vote? Joe Biden?
Donald Trump? Or, are you not sure?
Biden
Trump
Not Sure
[Do not offer “neither” but mark if that is what is indicated]
Neither
Q In another potential combination of candidates… If the election for President were being held
today, and if the candidates were Joe Biden, Donald Trump, and Robert F. Kennedy Junior
running as an Independent Candidate, for whom would vote? Joe Biden? Donald Trump?
Robert F. Kennedy? Or, are you not sure?
Biden
Trump
Kennedy
Not Sure
[Do Not offer “Some Other Candidate” but mark if that is what is indicated]
Some Other Candidate
Q And if there were an even larger combination of candidates… If the election for President
were being held today, and if the candidates were Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Robert F. Kennedy
Junior, AND Democrat U.S. Senator Joe Manchin running as the No Labels Candidate, AND
Cornell West running as an Independent Candidate, AND Jill Stein as the Green Party
Candidate, for whom would vote? Joe Biden? Donald Trump? Robert F. Kennedy? Joe
Manchin? Cornell West? Jill Stein? Or, are you not sure?
Biden
Trump
Kennedy
Manchin
West
Stein
Not Sure
[Do Not offer “Some Other Candidate” but mark if that is what is indicated]
Some Other Candidate]
Q And one final Presidential Election Question. If the candidates for President were Joe Biden,
OR Republican Nikki Haley. Would you vote for Joe Biden, Nikki Haley, or some other
candidate or, are you not sure?
Biden
Haley
Not Sure
[If respondent indicates Kennedy, Manchin, West, Stein, or any other, mark as ‘Some Other’]

Ca 584 A

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Ca 584 A

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To: Tom Donelson, Chairman, Americas PAC

From: JD Johannes, VCreek/AMG

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