1.1.

Basic Definitions
2.1. Probability Random experiment and sample space
1.3. Probability Rules Events
1.4. Bayes’ Theorem

PROBABILITY

MSc. Nguyễn Hoàng Huy Tú

November 4, 2023

Nguyễn Hoàng Huy Tú Probability

 1.1. Basic Definitions
2.1. Probability Random experiment and sample space
1.3. Probability Rules Events
1.4. Bayes’ Theorem

Random experiment

Definition
A random experiment is a process leading to two or more possible
outcomes, without knowing exactly which outcome will occur.

Example:
A coin is tossed and the outcome is either a head or a tail.
The number of persons admitted to a hospital emergency room
during any hour cannot be known in advance.
A customer enters a store and either purchases a shirt or does not.

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 1.1. Basic Definitions
2.1. Probability Random experiment and sample space
1.3. Probability Rules Events
1.4. Bayes’ Theorem

Basic outcomes and sample space

Definition
The possible outcomes from a random experiment are called the
basic outcomes.
The set of all basic outcomes is called the sample space, denoted
by S.

Example: An investor follows the Dow Jones Industrial index. There

are two basic outcomes
O1 : The index is higher than at yesterday’s close;
O2 : The index is not higher than at yesterday’s close.
Therefore, the sample space is

S = {O1 , O2 }

Nguyễn Hoàng Huy Tú Probability

 1.1. Basic Definitions
2.1. Probability Random experiment and sample space
1.3. Probability Rules Events
1.4. Bayes’ Theorem

Exercise

Ex 1: Let the left hand toss a coin and the right hand rolls a dice.
Determine all basic outcomes and the sample space.

Ex 2: Suppose that two letters are to be selected from A, B, C and

arranged in order. Determine all basic outcomes and the sample
space.

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 1.1. Basic Definitions
2.1. Probability Random experiment and sample space
1.3. Probability Rules Events
1.4. Bayes’ Theorem

Event

Definition
An event, E, is any subset of basic outcomes from the sample space.
An event occurs if the random experiment results in one of its
constituent basic outcomes.
A basic outcome belonging to the event E is said to be satisfying
the event E.
The empty set 0/ is called a null event.

Example: Roll a dice. Consider the event A: ”The outcome is a even

number”. Then the basic outcomes which satisfy event A are 2, 4 and
6. Therefore,
A = {2, 4, 6}

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 1.1. Basic Definitions
2.1. Probability Random experiment and sample space
1.3. Probability Rules Events
1.4. Bayes’ Theorem

Intersection of Events

Definition
Let A and B be two events in the sample space S. Their intersection,
denoted by A ∩ B, is the set of all basic outcomes in S that belong to
both A and B. Hence, the intersection A ∩ B occurs if and only if both
A and B occur.
In particular, If the events A and B have no common basic outcomes,

A ∩ B = 0,
/

they are called mutually exclusive.

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 1.1. Basic Definitions
2.1. Probability Random experiment and sample space
1.3. Probability Rules Events
1.4. Bayes’ Theorem

Definition
Let A and B be two events in the sample space, S. Their union,
denoted by A ∪ B, is the set of all basic outcomes in S that belong to at
least one of these two events. Hence, the union A ∪ B occurs if and
only if either A or B or both occur.

In particular, given the n events E1 , E2 , . . . , En is the sample space S, if

E1 ∪ E2 ∪ . . . ∪ En = S,

These events are said to be collectively exhaustive.

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 1.1. Basic Definitions
2.1. Probability Random experiment and sample space
1.3. Probability Rules Events
1.4. Bayes’ Theorem

Complement

Definition
Let A be an event in the sample space S. The set of basic outcomes of
a random experiment belonging to S but not to A is called the
complement of A and is denoted by A.

Note that A = S − A. Moreover, events A and A are mutually

exclusive, no basic outcome can belong to both, and collectively
exhaustive, every basic outcome must belong to one or the other.

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 1.1. Basic Definitions
2.1. Probability Random experiment and sample space
1.3. Probability Rules Events
1.4. Bayes’ Theorem

Exercise
Ex 1: We designate four basic outcomes for the Dow Jones Industrial
average over two consecutive days:
O1 : The Dow Jones average rises on both days.
O2 : The Dow Jones average rises on the first day but does not rise on
the second day.
O3 : The Dow Jones average does not rise on the first day but rises on
the second day.
O4 : The Dow Jones average does not rise on either day.
We consider these two events:
A: “ The Dow Jones average rises on the first day.”
B: “ The Dow Jones average rises on the second day.”
Find the intersection, union, and complement of A and B. (as a
sentence and as a subset)
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 1.1. Basic Definitions
2.1. Probability Random experiment and sample space
1.3. Probability Rules Events
1.4. Bayes’ Theorem

Exercise

Ex 2: The sample space is defined as follows

S = {E1 , E2 , E3 , E4 , E5 , E6 , E7 , E8 , E9 , E10 }

Given A = {E3 , E5 , E6 , E10 } and B = {E3 , E4 , E6 , E9 }.

a. What is the intersection of A and B?
b. What is the union of A and B?
c. Is the union of A and B collectively exhaustive?

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 1.1. Basic Definitions
2.1. Probability Random experiment and sample space
1.3. Probability Rules Events
1.4. Bayes’ Theorem

Exercise
Ex 3: Florin Frenti operates a small, used car lot that has three
Mercedes (M1 , M2 , M3 ) and two Toyotas (T1 , T2 ). Two customers,
Cezara and Anda, come to his lot, and each selects a car. The
customers do not know each other, and there is no communication
between them. Let the events A and B be defined as follows:
A: The customers select at least one Toyota.
B: The customers select two cars of the same model.
a. Identify the sample space.
b. Define event A.
c. Define event B.
d. Find the intersection, union, and complement of A and B.
e. Find the intersection and union A and B
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 1.1. Basic Definitions
2.1. Probability Definitions
1.3. Probability Rules Properties
1.4. Bayes’ Theorem

Classical Probability

Definition
Assume that all outcomes in a sample space are equally likely to
occur. Then the probability of an event A is defined by
NA
P(A) =
N
where
N = the total number of outcomes in the sample space.
NA = the number of outcomes that satisfy the condition of event
A.

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 1.1. Basic Definitions
2.1. Probability Definitions
1.3. Probability Rules Properties
1.4. Bayes’ Theorem

Example
A small computer store has three Hewlett-Packard and two Dell
computers in stock. Suppose that Susan Spencer comes to purchase
two computers. Any computer on the shelf is equally likely to be
selected. What is the probability that Susan will purchase one
Hewlett-Packard and one Dell computer?
The sample space S is
S = {H1 D1 , H1 D2 , H2 D1 , H2 D2 , H3 D1 , H3 D2 , H1 H3 , H2 H3 , D1 D2 }.
If A is the event “one Hewlett- Packard and one Dell computer” then
A = {H1 D1 , H1 D2 , H2 D1 , H2 D2 , H3 D1 , H3 D2 }
Hence the probability of event A is
NA 6
P(A) = =
N 10
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 1.1. Basic Definitions
2.1. Probability Definitions
1.3. Probability Rules Properties
1.4. Bayes’ Theorem

Ordering, Permutation and Combination

Formulas
The total number of possible ways of arranging x objects in order
is given by
x.(x − 1).(x − 2) . . . 2.1 = x!
The total number of possible ways of selecting and arranging in
order x objects from n is given by

n!
Pnx =
(n − x)!

The total number of possible ways of selecting x objects from n

is given by
n!
Cnx =
x!(n − x)!
Nguyễn Hoàng Huy Tú Probability
 1.1. Basic Definitions
2.1. Probability Definitions
1.3. Probability Rules Properties
1.4. Bayes’ Theorem

Example
A small computer store has three Hewlett-Packard and two Dell
computers in stock. Suppose that Susan Spencer comes to purchase
two computers. Any computer on the shelf is equally likely to be
selected. What is the probability that Susan will purchase one
Hewlett-Packard and one Dell computer?
Sample space S: 2 computers
N = C52 = 10
The event A: one Hewlett-Packard and one Dell computer.
NA = C13 .C21 = 6
Then
NA 6
P(A) = =
N 10
Nguyễn Hoàng Huy Tú Probability
 1.1. Basic Definitions
2.1. Probability Definitions
1.3. Probability Rules Properties
1.4. Bayes’ Theorem

Exercise

Ex 1: A personnel officer has 20 candidates to fill 3 similar

positions. 15 candidates are men, and 5 are women. If, in fact, every
combination of candidates is equally likely to be chosen,
a. What is the probability that no women will be hired?
b. What is the probability that no men will be hired?
c. What is the probability that at least one woman will be hired?

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 1.1. Basic Definitions
2.1. Probability Definitions
1.3. Probability Rules Properties
1.4. Bayes’ Theorem

Exercise

Ex 2: You are 1 of 7 female candidates auditioning for 2 parts—the

heroine and her best friend—in a play. Before the auditions you know
nothing of the other candidates, and you assume all candidates have
equal chances for the parts.
a. Find the probability that you will be chosen to play the heroine.
b. Find the probability that you will be chosen to play 1 of the 2 parts.

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 1.1. Basic Definitions
2.1. Probability Definitions
1.3. Probability Rules Properties
1.4. Bayes’ Theorem

Exercise

Ex 3: There are 3 customers entering a bank with 6 service counters.

Calculate the probability to:
a. All 3 customers came to the same counter.
b. Each person goes to a different counter.
c. Two of the three people went to a counter.

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 1.1. Basic Definitions
2.1. Probability Definitions
1.3. Probability Rules Properties
1.4. Bayes’ Theorem

Relative Frequency Probability

Definition
The relative frequency probability is the limit of the proportion of
times that event A occurs in a large number of trials, n,
nA nA
P(A) = lim ≈
n→+∞ n n
where
nA is the number of A outcomes.
n is the number of trials.

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 1.1. Basic Definitions
2.1. Probability Definitions
1.3. Probability Rules Properties
1.4. Bayes’ Theorem

Example

Example: There were 54,345 households in City X and that 31,496

had incomes above $75,000. We computed the probability for event
A, “family income greater than $75,000” as follows:
nA 31, 496
P(A) = = = 0.58 = 58%
n 54, 345

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 1.1. Basic Definitions
2.1. Probability Definitions
1.3. Probability Rules Properties
1.4. Bayes’ Theorem

Properties

Properties
i. If A is any event in the sample space S, then

0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1.

ii. Let A be an event in S and let Oi denote the basic outcomes. Then

P(A) = ∑ P(Oi )
A

iii. P(S) = 1, P(0)

/ =0

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 Complement Rule
1.1. Basic Definitions
Addition Rule
2.1. Probability
Conditional Probability
1.3. Probability Rules
Multiplication Rule
1.4. Bayes’ Theorem
Statistical Independence

Complement Rule

Rule
Let A be an event and A its complement. Then the complement rule is
as follows:
P(A) = 1 − P(A)

Nguyễn Hoàng Huy Tú Probability

 Complement Rule
1.1. Basic Definitions
Addition Rule
2.1. Probability
Conditional Probability
1.3. Probability Rules
Multiplication Rule
1.4. Bayes’ Theorem
Statistical Independence

Addition Rule

Rule
Let A and B be two events. Using the addition rule, the probability of
their union is as follows:

P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∩ B)

As a corollary,
P(A ∩ B) = P(A) − P(A ∩ B)
P(A ∩ B) = P(B) − P(A ∩ B)

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 Complement Rule
1.1. Basic Definitions
Addition Rule
2.1. Probability
Conditional Probability
1.3. Probability Rules
Multiplication Rule
1.4. Bayes’ Theorem
Statistical Independence

Example
Example 1: The probability of A is 0.60, the probability of B is 0.45,
and the probability of both is 0.30. What is the probability of either A
and B?

P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∩ B)

= 0.6 + 0.45 − 0.3
= 0, 75

Example 2: The probability of A is 0.40, the probability of B is 0.45,

and the probability of either is 0.85. What is the probability of both A
and B?
P(A ∩ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∪ B)
= 0.4 + 0.45 − 0.85
= 0

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 Complement Rule
1.1. Basic Definitions
Addition Rule
2.1. Probability
Conditional Probability
1.3. Probability Rules
Multiplication Rule
1.4. Bayes’ Theorem
Statistical Independence

Exercise
Ex 1: A cell phone company found that 65% of all customers want
text messaging on their phones, 70% want photo capability, and 40%
want both.
a. What is the probability that a customer will want at least one of
these?
b. What is the probability that a customer will want text messaging
but not photo capability?
c. What is the probability that a customer will only want photo
capability?
Ex 2: A customer intends to buy a box of products by randomly
taking out 4 products at the same time from the box to check. If there
is no more than 1 defective product, then buy a box of products.
Calculate the probability that the customer will buy the box. Given
that the product box has 20 products, of which 5 are defective.
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 Complement Rule
1.1. Basic Definitions
Addition Rule
2.1. Probability
Conditional Probability
1.3. Probability Rules
Multiplication Rule
1.4. Bayes’ Theorem
Statistical Independence

Example

Example: In the case, there are 3 people including 2 men and 1

woman suspected of being the murderer: Peter, Jack and Mary. Let A
denote an event: ”Peter is the murderer”. It is very easy to see that the
probability
NA 1
P(A) = = .
N 3
However, after careful investigation, the police concluded that the
murderer must be a man.

Can the probability of ”Peter is the killer” change?

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 Complement Rule
1.1. Basic Definitions
Addition Rule
2.1. Probability
Conditional Probability
1.3. Probability Rules
Multiplication Rule
1.4. Bayes’ Theorem
Statistical Independence

Conditional Probability

Definition
Let A and B be two events. The conditional probability of event A,
given that event B has occurred, is denoted by P(A|B) and is found to
be as follows:
P(A ∩ B)
P(A|B) = provided that P(B) > 0
P(B)

Similarly,

P(A ∩ B)
P(B|A) = provided that P(A) > 0
P(A)

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 Complement Rule
1.1. Basic Definitions
Addition Rule
2.1. Probability
Conditional Probability
1.3. Probability Rules
Multiplication Rule
1.4. Bayes’ Theorem
Statistical Independence

Multiplication Rule

Rule
Let A and B be two events. Using the multiplication rule of
probabilities, the probability of their intersection can be found as

P(A ∩ B) = P(A|B).P(B)

and also as
P(A ∩ B) = P(B|A).P(A)

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 Complement Rule
1.1. Basic Definitions
Addition Rule
2.1. Probability
Conditional Probability
1.3. Probability Rules
Multiplication Rule
1.4. Bayes’ Theorem
Statistical Independence

Exercise

Ex 1: A cell phone company found that 65% of all customers want

text messaging on their phones, 70% want photo capability, and 40%
want both.
a. Suppose a person wants photo capability. What is the probability
that this person will want text messaging?
b. What is the probability that a person who wants text messaging
also wants photo capability?

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 Complement Rule
1.1. Basic Definitions
Addition Rule
2.1. Probability
Conditional Probability
1.3. Probability Rules
Multiplication Rule
1.4. Bayes’ Theorem
Statistical Independence

Exercise

Ex 2: A device has 2 parts with probabilities of broken of the first

part and second are 0.1; 0.2. The probability that both parts are
broken is 0.04. Find probability to:
a. There is at least one part that works well.
b. Both parts work well.
c. Only first part works well.
d. Only one part works well.
e. Part 1 works fine if part 2 is broken.
f. First part works fine if only one part is broken.

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 Complement Rule
1.1. Basic Definitions
Addition Rule
2.1. Probability
Conditional Probability
1.3. Probability Rules
Multiplication Rule
1.4. Bayes’ Theorem
Statistical Independence

Exercise

Ex 3: A lawn-care service makes telephone solicitations, seeking

customers for the coming season. A review of the records indicates
that 15% of these solicitations produce new customers and that, of
these new customers, 80% had used some rival service in the previous
year. It is also estimated that, of all solicitation calls made, 60% are to
people who had used a rival service the previous year. What is the
probability that a call to a person who had used a rival service the
previous year will produce a new customer for the lawncare service?

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 Complement Rule
1.1. Basic Definitions
Addition Rule
2.1. Probability
Conditional Probability
1.3. Probability Rules
Multiplication Rule
1.4. Bayes’ Theorem
Statistical Independence

Exercise
Ex 4: An editor may use all, some, or none of three possible strategies
to enhance the sales of a book:
a. An expensive prepublication promotion
b. An expensive cover design
c. A bonus for sales representatives who meet predetermined sales
levels
In the past, these three strategies have been applied simultaneously to
only 2% of the company’s books. Twenty percent of the books have
had expensive cover designs, and, of these, 80% have had expensive
prepublication promotion. A rival editor learns that a new book is to
have both an expensive prepublication promotion and an expensive
cover design and now wants to know how likely it is that a bonus
scheme for sales representatives will be introduced. Compute the
probability of interest to the rival editor.
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 Complement Rule
1.1. Basic Definitions
Addition Rule
2.1. Probability
Conditional Probability
1.3. Probability Rules
Multiplication Rule
1.4. Bayes’ Theorem
Statistical Independence

Statistical Independence

Definition
Let A and B be two events. These events are said to be statistically
independent if and only if

P(A ∩ B) = P(A).P(B)
It follows that
P(A|B) = P(A)(P(B) > 0)
P(B|A) = P(B)(P(A) > 0)

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 Complement Rule
1.1. Basic Definitions
Addition Rule
2.1. Probability
Conditional Probability
1.3. Probability Rules
Multiplication Rule
1.4. Bayes’ Theorem
Statistical Independence

Example
Example 1: (Check by formula) Suppose that women obtain 54% of
all bachelor’s degrees in a particular country and that 20% of all
bachelor’s degrees are in business. Also, 8% of all bachelor’s degrees
go to women majoring in business. Are the events “the bachelor’s
degree holder is a woman” and “the bachelor’s degree is in business”
statistically independent?
Let A denote the event “the bachelor’s degree holder is a woman” and
B denote the event “the bachelor’s degree is in business.” We then
have the following:
P(A) = 0.54, P(B) = 0.20, P(A ∩ B) = 0.08
Since
P(A)P(B) = (0.54)(0.20) = 0.108 ̸= 0.08 = P(A ∩ B)
these events are not independent.
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 Complement Rule
1.1. Basic Definitions
Addition Rule
2.1. Probability
Conditional Probability
1.3. Probability Rules
Multiplication Rule
1.4. Bayes’ Theorem
Statistical Independence

Example

Example 2: (Check by the nature of a random experiment) If we toss

a fair coin two or more times, the probability of a head is the same for
each toss and is not influenced by the outcome of the previous toss.

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 Complement Rule
1.1. Basic Definitions
Addition Rule
2.1. Probability
Conditional Probability
1.3. Probability Rules
Multiplication Rule
1.4. Bayes’ Theorem
Statistical Independence

Exercise

A quality-control manager found that 30% of workrelated problems

occurred on Mondays and that 20% occurred in the last hour of a
day’s shift. It was also found that 4% of worker-related problems
occurred in the last hour of Monday’s shift. a. What is the probability
that a worker-related problem that occurs on a Monday does not occur
in the last hour of the day’s shift? b. Are the events “problem occurs
on Monday” and “problem occurs in the last hour of the day’s shift”
statistically independent?

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 1.1. Basic Definitions
2.1. Probability Total Probability Rule
1.3. Probability Rules Bayes’ Theorem
1.4. Bayes’ Theorem

Total Probability Rule

Rule
Let E1 , E2 , . . . En be a system of events which are both mutually
exclusive and collectively exhaustive. Let A be an event. Then

P(A) = P(E1 )P(A|E1 ) + P(E2 )P(A|E2 ) + . . . + P(En )P(A|En )

In particular, A and A are both mutually exclusive and collectively

exhaustive. For any event B, we have

P(B) = P(A)P(B|A) + P(A)P(B|A)

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 1.1. Basic Definitions
2.1. Probability Total Probability Rule
1.3. Probability Rules Bayes’ Theorem
1.4. Bayes’ Theorem

Bayes’ Theorem
Theorem
Let E1 , E2 , . . . En be a system of events which are both mutually
exclusive and collectively exhaustive. Let A be an event. Then

P(A|Ei )P(Ei )
P(Ei |A) =
P(A)
or
P(A|Ei )P(Ei )
P(Ei |A) =
P(E1 )P(A|E1 ) + P(E2 )P(A|E2 ) + . . . + P(En )P(A|En )

In particular,

P(A)P(B|A) P(A)P(B|A)
P(A|B) = =
P(B) P(A)P(B|A) + P(A)P(B|A)
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 1.1. Basic Definitions
2.1. Probability Total Probability Rule
1.3. Probability Rules Bayes’ Theorem
1.4. Bayes’ Theorem

Solution steps for total probability and Bayes’ Theorem

Step 1: Define the events from the problem.

Step 2: Define the probabilities and conditional probabilities for the
events defined in Step 1.
Step 3: Find the system of events which is both mutually exclusive and
collectively exhaustive (compute the complement if needed).
Step 4: Apply the formula.

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 1.1. Basic Definitions
2.1. Probability Total Probability Rule
1.3. Probability Rules Bayes’ Theorem
1.4. Bayes’ Theorem

Exercise

Ex 1: A stock market analyst examined the prospects of the shares of

a large number of corporations. It turned out that 25% performed
much better than the market average, 25%, much worse, and the
remaining 50%, about the same as the average. Forty percent of the
stocks that turned out to do much better than the market were rated
good buys by the analyst, as were 20% of those that did about as well
as the market and 10% of those that did much worse.
a. What is the probability that a stock will be rated a good buy by the
analyst?
b. What is the probability that a stock rated a good buy by the analyst
performed much better than the average?

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 1.1. Basic Definitions
2.1. Probability Total Probability Rule
1.3. Probability Rules Bayes’ Theorem
1.4. Bayes’ Theorem

Exercise

Ex 2: Given that 10% of the people who come into the showroom and
talk to a salesperson will purchase a car. To increase the chances of
success, you propose to offer a free dinner with a salesperson. The
project is conducted, and 40% of the people who purchased cars had a
free dinner. In addition, 10% of the people who did not purchase cars
had a free dinner.
a. What is the probability that a person will have a free dinner?
b. What is the probability that a person who accept a free dinner will
purchase a car?
c. What is the probability that a person who does not accept a free
dinner will purchase a car?

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 1.1. Basic Definitions
2.1. Probability Total Probability Rule
1.3. Probability Rules Bayes’ Theorem
1.4. Bayes’ Theorem

Exercise

Ex 3: Disease X was present in 5 percent of the population, and the

testing technique’s accuracy rate is given as follows:
90% of infected people have a positive result.
95% of uninfected people have a negative result.
What is the probability that a person who has a positive result will be
infected?

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 1.1. Basic Definitions
2.1. Probability Total Probability Rule
1.3. Probability Rules Bayes’ Theorem
1.4. Bayes’ Theorem

Exercise

Ex 4: The Watts New Lightbulb Corporation ships large

consignments of lightbulbs to big industrial users. When the
production process is functioning correctly, which is 90% of the time,
10% of all bulbs produced are defective. However, the process is
susceptible to an occasional malfunction, leading to a defective rate of
50%.
a. If a defective bulb is found, what is the probability that the process
is functioning correctly?
b. If a nondefective bulb is found, what is the probability that the
process is operating correctly?

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 1.1. Basic Definitions
2.1. Probability Total Probability Rule
1.3. Probability Rules Bayes’ Theorem
1.4. Bayes’ Theorem

Exercise

Ex 5: There are 3 identical boxes. The first box contains 10 products

including 4 defective products, the second box contains 15 products
including 5 defective products, the third box contains 20 products,
including 5 defective products. Take a box at random and from there
take a product at random. Find the probability of getting the defective
product.

Nguyễn Hoàng Huy Tú Probability