AUTOCORRELATION GRAPHS AND TABLES

Original Regression

. reg elc gdppc mob

Source | SS df MS Number of obs = 24
-------------+------------------------------ F( 2, 21) = 1216.77
Model | 613387.439 2 306693.72 Prob > F = 0.0000
Residual | 5293.18084 21 252.056231 R-squared = 0.9914
-------------+------------------------------ Adj R-squared = 0.9906
Total | 618680.62 23 26899.1574 Root MSE = 15.876
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
elc | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
gdppc | .5076964 .0374269 13.57 0.000 .429863 .5855298
mob | 1.001007 .3506034 2.86 0.009 .2718869 1.730127
_cons | 105.6931 20.8132 5.08 0.000 62.40966 148.9765
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. predict error, resid

. plot error year

30.2386 +
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+----------------------------------------------------------------+
1991 year 2014
Correlation Matrix

. pwcorr error error_t_1 error_t_2 error_t_3 error_t_4 error_t_5 error_t_6, sig

| error error_~1 error_~2 error_~3 error_~4 error_~5 error_~6

-------------+---------------------------------------------------------------
error | 1.0000
|
|
error_t_1 | 0.7083 1.0000
| 0.0002
|
error_t_2 | 0.1954 0.7083 1.0000
| 0.3834 0.0002
|
error_t_3 | -0.2011 0.1954 0.6584 1.0000
| 0.3820 0.3834 0.0009
|
error_t_4 | -0.2608 -0.2011 0.1207 0.6336 1.0000
| 0.2668 0.3820 0.6023 0.0020
|
error_t_5 | -0.2032 -0.2608 -0.1296 0.2728 0.7356 1.0000
| 0.4042 0.2668 0.5861 0.2446 0.0002
|
error_t_6 | -0.3564 -0.2032 -0.0694 0.1996 0.5201 0.7438 1.0000
| 0.1466 0.4042 0.7778 0.4127 0.0225 0.0003
|

Durbin- Watson Test

. tsset year
time variable: year, 1991 to 2014
delta: 1 unit

. dwstat
Durbin-Watson d-statistic( 3, 24) = .5480991
Durbin M Test

. reg error error_t_1 gdppc mob

Source | SS df MS Number of obs = 23
-------------+------------------------------ F( 3, 19) = 8.50
Model | 2881.7712 3 960.5904 Prob > F = 0.0009
Residual | 2147.2261 19 113.0119 R-squared = 0.5730
-------------+------------------------------ Adj R-squared = 0.5056
Total | 5028.9973 22 228.590786 Root MSE = 10.631
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
error | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
error_t_1 | .8191529 .1635065 5.01 0.000 .4769298 1.161376
gdppc | -.0412529 .0273026 -1.51 0.147 -.0983978 .0158921
mob | .4399056 .2538263 1.73 0.099 -.0913589 .9711701
_cons | 22.80843 15.37617 1.48 0.154 -9.374269 54.99113
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Breusch and Godfrey Test

. reg error error_t_1 gdppc mob

Source | SS df MS Number of obs = 23

-------------+------------------------------ F( 3, 19) = 8.50
Model | 2881.7712 3 960.5904 Prob > F = 0.0009
Residual | 2147.2261 19 113.0119 R-squared = 0.5730
-------------+------------------------------ Adj R-squared = 0.5056
Total | 5028.9973 22 228.590786 Root MSE = 10.631
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
error | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
error_t_1 | .8191529 .1635065 5.01 0.000 .4769298 1.161376
gdppc | -.0412529 .0273026 -1.51 0.147 -.0983978 .0158921
mob | .4399056 .2538263 1.73 0.099 -.0913589 .9711701
_cons | 22.80843 15.37617 1.48 0.154 -9.374269 54.99113
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Prais- Winsten Transformation
. prais elc gdppc mob
Prais-Winsten AR(1) regression -- iterated estimates
Source | SS df MS Number of obs = 24
-------------+------------------------------ F( 2, 21) = 175.63
Model | 40685.5868 2 20342.7934 Prob > F = 0.0000
Residual | 2432.37683 21 115.827468 R-squared = 0.9436
-------------+------------------------------ Adj R-squared = 0.9382
Total | 43117.9636 23 1874.69407 Root MSE = 10.762
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
elc | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
gdppc | .5888332 .0563663 10.45 0.000 .471613 .7060534
mob | .3630296 .5083172 0.71 0.483 -.6940739 1.420133
_cons | 61.55362 33.45643 1.84 0.080 -8.022846 131.1301
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
rho | .807919
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Durbin-Watson statistic (original) 0.548099
Durbin-Watson statistic (transformed) 1.564997

Cochrane- Orcutt Method

. prais elc gdppc mob, corc
Cochrane-Orcutt AR(1) regression -- iterated estimates
Source | SS df MS Number of obs = 23
-------------+------------------------------ F( 2, 20) = 167.88
Model | 40547.0959 2 20273.5479 Prob > F = 0.0000
Residual | 2415.30214 20 120.765107 R-squared = 0.9438
-------------+------------------------------ Adj R-squared = 0.9382
Total | 42962.398 22 1952.83627 Root MSE = 10.989
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
elc | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
gdppc | .5697767 .0728295 7.82 0.000 .417857 .7216963
mob | .4656674 .5664566 0.82 0.421 -.7159405 1.647275
_cons | 76.43407 49.6628 1.54 0.139 -27.16073 180.0289
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
rho | .797268
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Durbin-Watson statistic (original) 0.548099
Durbin-Watson statistic (transformed) 1.500850