Application on D.P.

D
Binomial Probability Distribution
A binomial experiment is one that possesses the following properties:
1. The experiment consists of 𝐧 repeated trials;
2. In each trial the outcomes are mutually exclusive may be classified as a success or a failure (hence the
name, binomial).
3. The probability of a success, denoted by 𝒑, the probability of a failure denoted by 𝒒 and they remain
constant from trial to trial and repeated trials are independent.

Examples of trials:
• flipping a coin -- heads is success, tails is failure
• rolling a die -- 3 is success, anything else is failure
• voting -- votes for candidate A is success, anything else is failure
• determining eye color -- green eyes is success, anything else is failure
• spraying crops -- the insects are killed is success, anything else is failure.

A binomial random variable is a specific type of discrete random variables that counts the frequency
(number) of occurrence of a particular event (success) in a fixed number of trials.

Examples of Binomial Random Variables

• Number of correct guesses at 30 true-false questions when you randomly guess all answers.
• Number of winning lottery tickets when you buy 10 tickets of the same kind.
• Number of left-handers in a randomly selected sample of 100 unrelated people.
• Number of tails when flipping a coin 10 times.

Definition: The random variable 𝐗 that counts the number of successes, r in the n trials is said to have a
binomial distribution with parameters n and p.
The probability of a binomial random variable X with parameters n and p is given by the formula:

𝑷(𝑿 = 𝒓) = 𝒏𝑪𝒓 × 𝒑𝒓 × 𝒒𝒏−𝒓 𝒓 = 𝟎, 𝟏, 𝟐, 𝟑, … … . , 𝐧

Where, 𝒏 = 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑙𝑠,
𝒓= 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑠𝑝𝑒𝑐𝑖𝑓𝑖𝑐 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑦𝑜𝑢 𝑤𝑖𝑠ℎ 𝑡𝑜 𝑜𝑏𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑛,
𝒑= 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑤𝑖𝑙𝑙 𝑜𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟 and
𝒒= 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑤𝑖𝑙𝑙 𝑛𝑜𝑡 𝑜𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟 ( 𝒒 = 𝟏 − 𝒑).

In other words, when we are asked to compute the probability of the binomial random variable 𝑿, it is
necessary to calculate and multiply three separate factors:
𝒏!
1. (𝒏𝑪𝒓) = is the number of outcomes (ways) that include exactly r successes and (n – r) failures.
𝒓! (𝒏−𝒓)!

2. ( 𝒑𝒓 ), the probability of success (𝒑) raised to the 𝒓 power.

3. (𝒒𝒏−𝒓 ), the probability of failure (𝒒) raised to the (𝒏 − 𝒓) power.
Note: In a binomial distribution, only 2 parameters, namely 𝐧 and 𝐩, are needed to determine the probability.

1
 Example (1): When rolling a dice 100 times, what is the probability of rolling a "4" exactly 25 times?
Solution
This is a binomial experiment in which, 𝒏 = 𝟏𝟎𝟎 , 𝒓 = 𝟐𝟓 , 𝒏 – 𝒓 = 𝟕𝟓,
𝟏
𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑜𝑓 𝑟𝑜𝑙𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑎 "4" 𝑖𝑠, 𝒑 = 𝟔 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑜𝑓 𝑛𝑜𝑡 𝑟𝑜𝑙𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑔 "4" 𝑖𝑠 𝒒 = 𝟏 − 𝒑 = 𝟓/𝟔
𝟏 𝟐𝟓 𝟓 𝟕𝟓
∴ 𝑷(𝑿 = 𝟐𝟓) = 𝒏𝑪𝒓 × 𝒑𝒓 × 𝒒𝒏−𝒓 = (𝟏𝟎𝟎𝑪𝟐𝟓) × (𝟔) ×( )
𝟔
= 𝟎. 𝟎𝟎𝟗𝟖 ≅ 𝟎. 𝟎𝟏

Example (2): At a certain intersection, the light for eastbound traffic is red for 15 seconds, yellow for 5 seconds,
and green for 30 seconds. Find the probability that out of the next eight eastbound cars that arrive randomly at
the light, exactly three will be stopped by a red light.
Solution
𝑯𝒆𝒓𝒆, 𝒏 = 𝟖 , 𝒓 = 𝟑 , 𝒏– 𝒓 = 𝟓
𝟏𝟓
𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑜𝑓 𝑎 𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑙𝑖𝑔ℎ𝑡 𝑖𝑠, 𝒑 = = 𝟎. 𝟑 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑜𝑓 𝑛𝑜𝑡 𝑎 𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑙𝑖𝑔ℎ𝑡 𝑖𝑠 𝒒 = 𝟎. 𝟕∴
𝟓𝟎
𝑷(𝑿 = 𝟑) = 𝒏𝑪𝒓 × 𝒑𝒓 × 𝒒𝒏−𝒓 = (𝟖𝑪𝟑) × (𝟎. 𝟑)𝟑 × (𝟎. 𝟕)𝟓 = 𝟎. 𝟐𝟓𝟒𝟏 ≅ 𝟎. 𝟐𝟓𝟒

Example (3): A test consists of 10 multiple choice questions with five choices for each question. As an
experiment, you GUESS on each and every answer without even reading the questions. What is the probability
of getting exactly 6 questions correct on this test?
Solution
𝑯𝒆𝒓𝒆, 𝒏 = 𝟏𝟎 , 𝒓 = 𝟔 , 𝒏– 𝒓 = 𝟒
𝟏
𝑷𝒓𝒐𝒃𝒂𝒃𝒊𝒍𝒊𝒕𝒚 𝒐𝒇 𝒈𝒖𝒆𝒔𝒔𝒊𝒏𝒈 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒄𝒐𝒓𝒓𝒆𝒄𝒕 𝒂𝒏𝒔𝒘𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒏 𝒂 𝒒𝒖𝒆𝒔𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏, 𝒑 = = 𝟎. 𝟐 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝒒 = 𝟎. 𝟖
𝟓
∴ 𝑷(𝑿 = 𝟔) = 𝒏𝑪𝒓 × 𝒑𝒓 × 𝒒𝒏−𝒓 = 10𝐶6 × (0.2)6 × (0.8)4 ≅ 0.006

Example (4): In a school survey 68% of the students have an Android device and 32% have i-phone.
1) What is the probability that 12 of a selecting of 20 have Android devices?
2) What is the probability that out of 14 classmates that exactly 8 use i-phones?
Solution
1) First case:
𝒏 = 𝟐𝟎 (20 𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑜. 𝑜𝑓 𝑠𝑡𝑢𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠), 𝒓 = 𝟏𝟐 (𝑇ℎ𝑒 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑠𝑡𝑢𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑤ℎ𝑜 𝑜𝑤𝑛 𝑎𝑛 𝐴𝑛𝑑𝑟𝑜𝑖𝑑)
𝒑 = 𝟎. 𝟔𝟖 (𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑏. 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑦 𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑎𝑛 𝑨𝒏𝒅𝒓𝒐𝒊𝒅 𝒖𝒔𝒆𝒓 𝑖𝑠 𝑎 𝑠𝑢𝑐𝑐𝑒𝑠𝑠, 𝑏𝑒𝑐𝑎𝑢𝑠𝑒 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑖𝑠 𝑤ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑤𝑒 𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑎𝑏𝑜𝑢𝑡)
𝒒 = 𝟎. 𝟑𝟐 (𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑢𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑠 𝑑𝑜𝑒𝑠 𝑛𝑜𝑡 𝑜𝑤𝑛 𝑎𝑛 𝐴𝑛𝑑𝑟𝑜𝑖𝑑) 𝑁𝑜𝑡𝑒: 𝒒 = 𝟏 − 𝒑 & 𝒑 = 𝟏 − 𝒒
𝑷(𝑿 = 𝟏𝟐) = 𝒏𝑪𝒓 × 𝒑𝒓 × 𝒒𝒏−𝒓 = (𝟐𝟎𝑪𝟏𝟐) × (𝟎. 𝟔𝟖)𝟏𝟐 × (𝟎. 𝟑𝟐)𝟐𝟎−𝟏𝟐 = 𝟎. 𝟏𝟑𝟓𝟒
2) Second case:
Here, 𝒏 = 𝟏𝟒 , 𝒓 = 𝟖 (𝑇ℎ𝑒 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑠𝑡𝑢𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑤ℎ𝑜 𝑜𝑤𝑛 𝑎𝑛 𝑖 − 𝑝ℎ𝑜𝑛𝑒
𝒑 = 𝟎. 𝟑𝟐 (𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑜𝑓 𝑠𝑢𝑐𝑐𝑒𝑠𝑠, 𝑏𝑒𝑐𝑎𝑢𝑠𝑒 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑖𝑠 𝑤ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑤𝑒 𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑎𝑏𝑜𝑢𝑡)
𝒒 = 𝟎. 𝟔𝟖 (𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑦 𝑑𝑜 𝑛𝑜𝑡 𝑜𝑤𝑛 𝑎𝑛 𝑖 − 𝑝ℎ𝑜𝑛𝑒)
𝑷(𝑿 = 𝟖) = 𝒏𝑪𝒓 × 𝒑𝒓 × 𝒒𝒏−𝒓 = (𝟏𝟒𝑪𝟖) × (𝟎. 𝟑𝟐)𝟖 × (𝟎. 𝟔𝟖)𝟏𝟒−𝟖 = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟑𝟐𝟔

2
The Mean, Variance and the Standard Deviation of a binomial distribution
For a binomial distribution with 𝒏 trials and probability of success 𝒑 on each trial, then
the expected number of successes in n trials (i.e. the mean value of the binomial distribution) is
𝐄(𝐗) = 𝛍 = 𝐧𝐩
The variance 𝝈𝟐 is givin by; 𝝈𝟐 = 𝒏𝒑𝒒
The standard deviation, 𝝈 = √𝒏𝒑𝒒
Cumulative Binomial Probability
The function: 𝐅(𝐱) = 𝐏(𝐗 ≤ 𝐱) is called a cumulative probability distribution. A cumulative binomial
probability refers to the probability that the binomial random variable falls within a specified range (e.g., is greater
than or equal to a stated lower limit and less than or equal to a stated upper limit).

Example (5): A certain manufacturer’s memory chips have a 1% probability of being defective.
i) In a batch of 20 chips, what is the probability that at most one chip is defective?
ii) What is the probability that at least one chip is defective in a batch of 100 chips?
iii) Find the mean, variance and standard deviation for 20 non-defective chips.
Solution
Here, 𝒏 = 𝟐𝟎, 𝒑 = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟏 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝒒 = 𝟏 − 𝒑 = 𝟎. 𝟗𝟗 therefore,
∵ 𝑷(𝑿 = 𝒓) = 𝒏𝑪𝒓 × 𝒑𝒓 × 𝒒𝒏−𝒓 𝒓 = 𝟎, 𝟏, 𝟐, …. Then,
i) The probability that at most one chip is defective,
𝑷(𝑿 ≤ 𝟏) = 𝑷(𝑿 = 𝟎) + 𝑷(𝑿 = 𝟏)
= {𝟐𝟎𝑪𝟎 × (𝟎. 𝟎𝟏)𝟎 × (𝟎. 𝟗𝟗)𝟐𝟎 } + {𝟐𝟎𝑪𝟏 × (𝟎. 𝟎𝟏)𝟏 × (𝟎. 𝟗𝟗)𝟏𝟗 } = 𝟎. 𝟗𝟖𝟑𝟏𝟒
ii) The probability that at least one chip is defective in a batch of 100 chips,
𝑷(𝑿 ≥ 𝟏) = 𝑷(𝑿 = 𝟏) + 𝑷(𝑿 = 𝟐) + ⋯ … … … … … … . . +𝑷(𝑿 = 𝟏𝟎𝟎) 𝒐𝒓
= 𝟏 − [ (𝑷(𝑿 = 𝟎)] = 𝟏 − (𝟏𝟎𝟎𝑪𝟎 × 𝒑𝟎 × 𝒒𝟏𝟎𝟎 ) = 𝟏 − (𝟏 × 𝟏 × 𝟎. 𝟑𝟔𝟔) = 𝟎. 𝟔𝟑𝟒
iii) For 20 non defective chips, Here, ( 𝒏 = 𝟐𝟎 𝒑 = 𝟎. 𝟗𝟗 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝒒 = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟏 )
The mean, 𝝁 = 𝒏𝒑 = 20 × 0.99 = 19.8
Variance, 𝑽(𝑿) = 𝒏𝒑𝒒 = 20 × 0.99 × 0.01 = 0.198
Standard deviation, √𝑽(𝑿) = √0.198 = 0.445

Example (6): Roulette

A roulette wheel has 38 slots, 18 are red, 18 are black, and 2 are green. You play five games and always bet
on red.
i) How many games can you expect to win?
ii) What is the probability that you will win all five games?
3
 Solution
𝒓𝒆𝒅 𝒔𝒍𝒐𝒕𝒔 𝟏𝟖
Recall, you play five games and always bet on red. 𝒏 = 𝟓 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝒑 = 𝑻𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝒔𝒍𝒐𝒕𝒔 = 𝟑𝟖
𝟏𝟖
i) The expected number of games , 𝐄(𝐗) = 𝐧𝐩 = 𝟓 × (𝟑𝟖) ≈ 𝟐. 𝟑𝟔𝟖
𝟏𝟖
The variance, 𝝈𝟐 = 𝒏𝒑(𝟏 − 𝒑) = 𝟐. 𝟑𝟔𝟖 × (𝟏 − ) ≈ 𝟏. 𝟐𝟒𝟕
𝟑𝟖

The standard deviation, 𝝈 = √𝝈𝟐 = √1.247 ≈ 1.1165

Out of 5 games, you can expect to win 2.3684 (with a standard deviation of 1.1165).

ii) ∵ 𝑷(𝑿) = 𝒏𝑪𝒓 × 𝒑𝒓 × 𝒒𝒏−𝒓

𝟏𝟖 𝟓 𝟐𝟎 𝟓−𝟓
∴ 𝑷(𝑿 = 𝟓) = 𝟓𝑪𝟓 × (𝟑𝟖) × (𝟑𝟖) = 𝟎. 𝟐𝟑𝟖
There is a 2.38% chance that you will win all five out of five games.

Example (7): An exam consists of 10 multiple choice questions in which there are three choices for each
question. A student, randomly began to pick an answer for each question.
i) Find the probability that a student gets more than1 question correct.
ii) Find the probability that a student gets at most 8 questions incorrect.
iii) Find the expected number, variance and standard deviation for the incorrect question.
Solution
The probability that a student gets correct answer 𝒏 = 𝟏𝟎 , 𝒑 = 𝟏/𝟑 , 𝒒 = 𝟐/𝟑 𝒂𝒏𝒅 therefore,
∵ 𝑷(𝑿 = 𝒓) = 𝒏𝑪𝒓 × 𝒑𝒓 × 𝒒𝒏−𝒓 𝒓 = 𝟎, 𝟏, 𝟐, … . , 𝟏𝟎 then,
i) The probability that a student gets more than1 question correct is 𝑷(𝑿 > 𝟏), therefore,
𝑷(𝑿 > 𝟏) = 𝑷(𝑿 = 𝟐) + ⋯ … … … … … … . . +𝑷(𝑿 + 𝟏𝟎) 𝒐𝒓

= 𝟏 − [ (𝑷(𝑿 = 𝟎) + 𝑷(𝑿 = 𝟏)] = 𝟏 − [ (𝟏𝟎𝑪𝟎 × 𝒑𝟎 × 𝒒𝟏𝟎 ) + 𝟏𝟎𝑪𝟏 × 𝒑𝟏 × 𝒒𝟗 ]

𝟏 𝟎 𝟐 𝟏𝟎 𝟏 𝟏 𝟐 𝟗
= 𝟏 − [𝟏𝟎𝑪𝟎 × (𝟑) × (𝟑) + 𝟏𝟎𝑪𝟏 × (𝟑) × (𝟑) ] = ⋯ … … … … … ..
𝟐 𝟏
ii) The probability that a student gets incorrect answer 𝒑 = , 𝒒= 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝒏 = 𝟏𝟎 therefore,
𝟑 𝟑

The probability that a student gets at most 8 questions incorrect is 𝑷(𝑿 ≤ 𝟖), therefore,
𝑷(𝑿 ≤ 𝟖) = 𝟏 − [ (𝑷(𝑿 = 𝟗) + 𝑷(𝑿 = 𝟏𝟎)] = 𝟏 − [ (𝟏𝟎𝑪𝟗 × 𝒑𝟗 × 𝒒𝟏 ) + 𝟏𝟎𝑪𝟏𝟎 × 𝒑𝟏𝟎 × 𝒒𝟎 ]
𝟐 𝟗 𝟏 𝟏 𝟐 𝟏𝟎 𝟏 𝟎
= 𝟏 − [ (𝟏𝟎𝑪𝟗 × (𝟑) × (𝟑) ) + 𝟏𝟎𝑪𝟏𝟎 × (𝟑) × (𝟑) ] = ⋯ … … … … …
2 20
iii) 𝑬𝒙𝒑𝒆𝒄𝒕𝒆𝒅 𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝒊𝒏𝒄𝒐𝒓𝒓𝒆𝒄𝒕 𝒒𝒖𝒆𝒔𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏 𝑖𝑠, 𝑬(𝑿) = 𝒏𝒑 = 10 × =
3 3
2 1 20
𝑽𝒂𝒓𝒊𝒂𝒏𝒄𝒆, 𝑽(𝑿) = 𝒏𝒑𝒒 = 10 × × =
3 3 9
20
𝑺𝒕𝒂𝒏𝒅𝒂𝒓𝒅 𝒅𝒆𝒗𝒊𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏, 𝑺. 𝑫 = √𝑽(𝑿) = √ 9

Dr. Mohamed Said

4
 MSA University Module Title: Probability and Statistics
Faculty of Engineering Module Code: MAT 361

Exercise
Binomial Probability Distribution
(1) A die is tossed 3 times. What is the probability that;
i) No fives turning up? ii) 1 five? iii) 3 fives?

(2) Hospital records show that of patients suffering from a certain disease, 75% die of it. What is the probability
that of 6 randomly selected patients, 4 will recover?

(3) In the old days, there was a probability of 0.8 of success in any attempt to make a telephone call. (This often
depended on the importance of the person making the call, or the operator's curiosity!)
Calculate the probability of having 7 successes in 10 attempts.

(4) A (blindfolded) marksman finds that on the average he hits the target 4 times out of 5. If he fires 4 shots,
what is the probability that;
i) More than 2 hits? ii) At least 3 misses?

(5) A manufacturer of metal pistons finds that on the average, 12% of his pistons are rejected because they are
either oversize or undersize. What is the probability that:
i) Batch of 10 pistons 2 rejects? ii) At least 2 rejects?

(6) A satellite system consists of 7 components and can function adequately if at least 2 of 7 components are in
working condition. If each component is independently in working condition with probability 0.8.
i) What is the probability that the system functions adequately?
ii) Find the expected number and variance for the number of function components?

(7) A roulette wheel has 38 slots, 18 are red, 18 are black, and 2 are green. You play five games and always
bet on red. What is the probability that you will win no more than two games?

(8) An agent sells life insurance policies to five equally aged, healthy people. According to recent data, the
probability of a person living in these conditions for 30 years or more is 2/3.
Calculate the probability that after 30 years:
i) All five people are still living.
ii) At least three people are still living.
iii) Exactly two people are still living.