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Chapter-5 Introduction To Probability

This document is an introduction to discrete distributions chapter from a textbook. It outlines key discrete distributions like binomial, geometric, negative binomial, and hypergeometric. Examples are provided for each distribution to illustrate how to calculate probabilities and expected values. References at the end include probability and statistics textbooks for further reading.

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Ice Kamal
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46 views

Chapter-5 Introduction To Probability

This document is an introduction to discrete distributions chapter from a textbook. It outlines key discrete distributions like binomial, geometric, negative binomial, and hypergeometric. Examples are provided for each distribution to illustrate how to calculate probabilities and expected values. References at the end include probability and statistics textbooks for further reading.

Uploaded by

Ice Kamal
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 15

Introduction to Probability

Chapter:5 Discrete Distributions

Dr Nitin Gupta
Department of Mathematics
Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur,
Kharagpur - 721 302, INDIA.

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Outline

1 Binomial Trail

2 Binomial Distribution

3 Geometric Distribution

4 Negative Binomial Distribution

5 Hypergeometric Distibution

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References

1 Probability and statistics in engineering by Hines et al (2003) Wiley.

2 Mathematical Statistics by Richard J. Rossi (2018) Wiley.

3 Probability and Statistics with reliability, queuing and computer


science applications by K. S. Trivedi (1982) Prentice Hall of India
Pvt. Ltd.

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Bernoulli trail X ∼ Ber (p)

Consider a trail in which we can have success with probability p and


failure with probability q, such that p + q = 1
Let X counts the number of succesess. Then X can take values 0, 1.
PMF is P(X = 1) = p and P(X = 0) = q.
MGF is M(t) = q + pe t .
E (X ) = p and Var (X ) = E (X 2 ) − (E (X ))2 = p − p 2 = pq

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Binomial distribution X ∼ Bin(n, p)

Let n independent bernoulli trails are conducted.


Let X counts the number of succesess in n trails. Then X can take
values 0, 1, . . . , n.
PMF is P(X = x) = xn p x q n−x , x = 0, 1, . . . , n; 0, otherwise.


MGF is M(t) = (q + pe t )n .
E (X ) = np; E (X 2 ) = n(n − 1)p 2 + np; and Var (X ) = npq.

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Binomial distribution

Example
Suppose that we are throwing pair of dice 10 times and asking for the
probability of double five. Here the probability of getting double five is
1
p = 36 . If X denote the number of times getting a double five from rolling
1
two dices. Then X ∼ Bin(n, p), n = 10, p = 36 Then Required
10
 1 0 35 10
probability P(X > 0) = 1 − P(X = 0) = 1− 0 36 36

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Binomial distribution

Example
Suppose that a football player makes 30% of his shot attempts. If the
players shoots 10 shots in a game, and X is the number of shots made.
Assuming that the shots are independent, find the mean of random
variable X . Clearly X ∼ Bin(n, p), n = 10, p = 0.30. Then mean of
random variable X is

E (X ) = np = 10 × 0.30 = 3.

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Geometric distribution X ∼ Geo(p)

Let independent bernoulli trails are conducted till we get a success.


Let X counts the number of trails to get a success. Then X can take
values 1, 2, . . . ∞.
PMF is P(X = x) = q x−1 p, x = 1, 2, . . . ∞; 0, otherwise, p + q = 1.
pe t
MGF is M(t) = 1−qe t .
q
E (X ) = p1 ; and Var (X ) = p2
.

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Geometric distribution

Example
In each trial the probability of success is 0.25, in how many trails we
expect first success?
Solution: Let X denote the number of trails to have first success.
X ∼ Geo(p), where p = 0.25.Then expected number of trials are
E (X ) = p1 = 4.

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Geometric distribution
Geometric distribution has memoryless property, i.e.,
P(X > x + y |X > y ) = P(X > x)

Example
Let getting a ’1’ is a success in roll of a die. We will roll a fair die until we
observe success. Let we have already rolled the die ten times without a
success. The probability that more than two additional tosses are required
to have a success is

P(X > 12|X > 10) = P(X > 2)


= 1 − P(X = 1) − P(X = 2)
1 1 5
=1− − ×
6 6 6
25
= .
36
N Gupta (IIT Kharagpur) Discrete Distributions 10 / 15
Negative Binomial distribution X ∼ NB(r , p)

Let independent bernoulli trails are conducted till we get r successes.


Let X counts the number of trails to get r success. Then X can take
values r , r + 1, . . . ∞.
PMF is P(X = x) = x−1
 r x−r
r −1 p q , x = r , r + 1, . . . ∞; 0, otherwise.
 t r
pe
MGF is M(t) = 1−qe t .
rq
E (X ) = pr ; and Var (X ) = p2
.

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Negative Binomial distribution

Example
In ODI cricket match series between two teams A and B, the team who
wins three games will be the winner. Suppose that the team A has
probability 0.60 of winning over team B. We want to find the probability
that team A will win the series in 5 games. Let X counts the number of
games required by team A to win the series. Then X ∼ NB(r , p), 
r = 3, p = 0.60 . Now the required probability is P(X = 5) = 5−1
3−1
(0.60)3 (1 − 0.60)5−3 .

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Negative Binomial distribution

Example
A factory produces components for computers. Let 5% of components are
defective. We need to find 3 non-defective components for our 3 new
computers. Components are tested until 3 non-defectives are found. What
is the probability that more than 5 components will be tested?
Solution: Let X be the number of components tested for getting r
non-defectives. Then X ∼ NB(r , p), r = 3, p = 0.95, q = 1 − p. Then
required probability is

P(X > 5) = 1 − P(X ≤ 5)


= 1 − [P(X = 3) + P(X = 4) + P(X = 5)]
= 1 − [p 3 + 3p 3 q + 6p 3 q 2 ]
= 0.0012.

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Hypergeometric distribution

A box contains N balls. M are drawn at random, marked and returned to


the box. Next n balls are drawn at random from box and then the marked
balls are counted. Let X denote the number of marked balls. Then PMF is
M N−M
 
x n−x
P(X = x) = N
 , max(0, M + n − N) ≤ x ≤ min(M, n).
n

n nM
E (X ) = N M, Var (X ) = N 2 (N−1)
(N − M)(N − n).

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Summary

The discrete distributions were presented in this chapter. These


distributions has wide use in the field of engineering, science and
management. Particulaly we intoduced the binomial, geometric, negative
Binomial and hypergeometric distribution.

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