Civic Election Survey:

Winnipeg Mayoral Candidate

Voting Intentions
July 2022
State of the Mayoral Race: July 2022
In a crowded race, former mayor Glen Murray stands head and shoulders above other competitors

The frontrunner The contenders

Glen Murray Scott Gillingham Robert-Falcon Ouellette

Current support: 44% Current support: 16% Current support: 13%
Potential support: 67% Potential support: 51% Potential support: 50%
Momentum Index: +11 Momentum Index: +7 Momentum Index: +1

The former mayor is in a strong position entering the next The current St. James councillor and the former Winnipeg Centre Liberal MP are the next leading
phase of the campaign. He benefits from a strong lead contenders – but both have a long way to go before posing a significant threat to Murray’s bid to
and the view his significant political experience matters. become mayor again.

Further behind… Could they?

Jenny Motkaluk Shaun Loney Rana Bokhari
Current support: 8% Current support: 6% Current support: 4%
Potential suppo: 30% Potential support: 26% Potential support: 31%
Momentum Index: -11 Momentum Index: +6 Momentum Index: -2

Motkaluk, a 2018 mayoral candidate, has key pockets of support but is dealing with strong negative views about her after One in three (36%) Winnipeggers
she made comments criticizing The Forks for its Canada Day celebration plans. would consider voting for
Charleswood-Tuxedo Coun. Kevin
Loney is seen as having good ideas, but suffers from a significant lack of name recognition – and may be losing support to
Klein, with one-quarter (26%) open
Murray and (to a lesser extent) Ouellette.
to backing former Transcona Coun.
Bokhari’s accessible voter pool is relatively small – surprising given her tenure as the former provincial Liberal leader. Russ Wyatt.
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For More Methodology
Information:
Probe Research Inc. surveyed a representative sample of 622 Winnipeg adults between July 14-25, 2022 to
gauge their early views on the city’s mayoral candidates.
The survey questions were designed by Probe Research Inc. and the sample of respondents was provided by
Probe Research’s proprietary panel and supplemented with those from a reputable national panel provider.
As an online panel survey is a sample of convenience, no margin of error can be ascribed. However, a
random and representative non-convenience sample of 622 adults would have a margin of error of ± 4.0
percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The margin of error is higher within each of the survey’s population
subgroups.
Minor statistical weighting by age and gender has been applied to this sample to ensure that it corresponds
Mary Agnes Welch with the city as a whole.
Principal
(204) 470-8862
maryagnes@probe-
research.com

Probe Research Inc.

603 – 191 Lombard Ave.
Winnipeg, MB R3B 0X1
(204) 926-6565

www.probe-research.com

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Likelihood of Voting for Specific Candidates: Top Tier
One in five are firm Murray supporters; Gillingham, Ouellette can tap into one-half of voters

Definitely Possibly Definitely not Unaware of Accessible voter

vote for vote for vote for this person pool:

Glen Murray 19% 48% 22% 10% 67%

Scott Gillingham 7% 44% 25% 24% 51%

Robert-Falcon Ouellette 7% 43% 38% 12% 50%

Kevin Klein* 8% 28% 37% 28% 36%

Rana Bokhari 5% 26% 34% 36% 31%

Jenny Motkaluk 5% 25% 42% 28% 30%

Shaun Loney 6% 20% 22% 52% 26%

Russ Wyatt* 4% 22% 43% 31% 26%

V1. For each of the following candidates for mayor, please indicate if you would definitely, possibly or definitely not vote for this person, or indicate if you have not heard of this person.
*Not a declared candidate for mayor at the time the survey was in field

Base: All respondents (N=622) 4

Likelihood of Voting for Specific Candidates: Lower Tier
One in five would consider voting for newcomer Rick Shone; others do not register highly

Definitely Possibly Definitely not Unaware of Accessible voter

vote for vote for vote for this person pool:

Rick Shone 4% 15% 19% 62% 19%

Idris Ademuyiwa Adelakun 4% 11% 17% 69% 15%

Don Woodstock 3% 12% 35% 50% 15%

Cecil Sveinson* 4% 8% 13% 75% 12%

Desmond Thomas 3% 8% 15% 74% 11%

Jessica Peebles 3% 8% 16% 73% 11%

Chris Clacio 3% 6% 17% 74% 9%

V1. For each of the following candidates for mayor, please indicate if you would definitely, possibly or definitely not vote for this person, or indicate if you have not heard of this person.
*Not a declared candidate for mayor at the time the survey was in field

Base: All respondents (N=622) 5

Mayoral Vote Intention
Glen Murray has a sizable lead over the rest of the field
Decided voters only

Glen Murray 44%

Scott Gillingham 16%
Robert-Falcon Ouellette 13%
Jenny Motkaluk 8%
Shaun Loney 6%
Rana Bokhari 4%
Rick Shone 3%
None of these/
Don Woodstock 2% unsure: 23%
Jessica Peebles 2%
Desmond Thomas 2%
Chris Clacio 1%
Idris Ademuyiwa Adelakun 1%

V2. Which person do you plan to vote for to be the next Mayor of Winnipeg?
*Declared candidates only
Base: All respondents (N=622) 6
Mayoral Vote Intentions: Variations by Sub-Group
Glen Murray has a sizable lead over the rest of the field
• Support highest in the core area (54%) and • Higher support among older voters (24% 55+).
lowest in the northeast (29%). • Leading candidate among provincial PC voters
• Higher support among women (48% vs. 39% (32%).
among men) and older voters (49% 55+ vs. • Supporters also like his track record (44%), and
37% 18-34). Scott consider him to be likable (19%).
Glen • The top choice of provincial NDP supporters Gillingham
Murray (50%) and Liberals (45%). One-quarter of PC
supporters also favour him. • The second most popular choice among NDP
and Liberal voters (16% and 13% each).
• Supporters are most likely to vote for Murray
because of his experience/track record (65%) • Supporters are most likely to say Ouellette
and his platform (31%). has a good platform (35%) and cares about
Robert-Falcon poverty and homelessness (21%).
Ouellette
• More support among those with a university
degree (9% vs. 0% among those with high • The second most popular choice among
school or less). provincial PC voters (21%).
• Rates highest for his platform (56%) and also • Supporters are most likely to point to
rates highly for caring about poverty and Motkaluk’s platform as the reason they are
Shaun Jenny
homelessness (19%) and on leadership voting for her (43%).
Loney Motkaluk
qualities (17%).
V2. Which person do you plan to vote for to be the next Mayor of Winnipeg?
V3. In a sentence or two, why do you intend to vote for this person? 7
Second Choice Support
Ouellette, Loney supporters most likely to identify Murray as their second choice
Robert-Falcon Ouellette 20%

Glen Murray 19%

Scott Gillingham 17%

Rana Bokhari 10%

Second choice support by preferred candidate
Jenny Motkaluk 9%

Shaun Loney 7%

Jessica Peebles 5% Glen Scott Robert-Falcon Jenny Shaun

Murray Gillingham Ouellette Motkaluk Loney
Rick Shone 4% Ouellette 30% 16% - 12% 10%
Idris Ademuyiwa Adelakun 4% Murray - 38% 45% 9% 68%
Gillingham 26% - 14% 34% 7%
Don Woodstock 3%
Bokhari 11% 10% 6% 12% 6%
Chris Clacio 2% Motkaluk 7% 18% 5% - 0%
Desmond Thomas 1% Loney 11% 2% 5% 3% -

V4. Which of these candidates is your second choice?

*Declared candidates only
Base: Decided voters (N=481) 8
Candidate Momentum
Views on Murray, Gillingham and Loney have improved; Motkaluk’s momentum is negative

Improved in the Not Worsened in the Unsure Momentum

last month changed last month Index*

Glen Murray 24% 53% 13% 10% +11

Scott Gillingham 18% 54% 11% 17% +7

Robert-Falcon
13% 59% 12% 16% +1
Ouellette

Shaun Loney 13% 51% 7% 29% +6

Jenny Motkaluk 10% 48% 21% 21% -11

Rana Bokhari 9% 59% 11% 22% -2

Rick Shone 7% 53% 7% 33% 0

V5. Would you say your opinion of the following candidates has improved, worsened or not changed in the past month?
*Momentum Index calculated by subtracting those who say their opinion of the candidate has worsened from those who say their opinion has improved.
Base: All respondents (N=622) 9