SBM-NMIMS: COURSE TEACHING PLAN

Assurance of Learning AOL Specific

Course Code
Statistical Inference for Decision Making
Course Title
Course A Deo, M Sharma, P Khanna, R Antony, S Roy, T Kachwala,
Instructor/s
Credit Value 3 Credits (100 Marks)
Programme & FTMBA 1st Year / Trimester I (2022-2023)
Trimester
HBS Online Courses (Mathematics for Management and Quantitative Methods)
Pre-requisite Excel Foundation Program. Certification is a must.
CLOs – (in bracket state the PLOs to map)

CLO 1) Address real world issues involving uncertainty in data driven organizations
(PLO2a)

CLO 2) Use Hypothesis test to assess the plausibility of a hypothesis about an underlying
population parameter based on sample data (PLO2b)
Learning
Objectives
CLO 3) Develop and apply various statistical tools to help managerial decision making
(PLO3a)

CLO 4) Use Regression Analysis in uncovering patterns and relationships among

variables in order to optimize business performance across various functional areas
(PLO3b)

1) Understand how probability analysis can be used to provide helpful information to

mitigate risk in decision making (CLO1)

2) Understand how to use probability distributions to fit a random variable in order to

generalize its behavior (CLO1)

3) Understand how to compute as well as interpret sample distributions and interval

Learning
estimates of population mean (CLO2)
Outcomes
(Must be
4) Understand how to use Hypothesis Testing to interpret and draw conclusions about
connected to
the population using sample data (CLO2)
Learning
Objectives)
5) Use Chi square test to hypothesize and investigate independence of discrete variables
and ANOVA to test significance of differences in means of more than two populations
(CLO3)

6) Develop regression estimates to explain the relationship between one dependent

variable and one or more independent variables to determine the strength of predictors
and forecast an effect (CLO4)
Statistics is the art and science of collecting, analyzing, presenting, and interpreting data.
It includes descriptive analysis (the study of methods and tools for collecting data and
Course mathematical models to describe and interpret data) and inferential statistics (the systems
Description
and techniques for making probability-based decisions and accurate predictions based on
incomplete (sample) data). In today’s global business and economic environment, vast

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 amount of statistical information is available. The most successful managers and decision
makers are the ones who can understand the information and use it effectively and hence
it has become very desirable to understand and practice statistical thinking. This course is
thereby designed to help the students get the feel of statistics: what it is, how and when to
apply statistical techniques to decision-making situations. The course will be a hands-on
course on Excel and JMP software.

Specific 3 AOL CLO CLO CLO CLO

assessment Credit Instruments 1 2 3 4
methods (*)
Quiz 30 Embedded
Questions
Group Project 20 Rubric   
(5) (5) (10)
Case Problem 10 Rubric  
(5) (5)
Final Exam 40 Embedded    
Questions (10) (10) (10) (10)
Evaluation
Total 100 10 20 20 20
Pattern

*AOL Assessment Instruments:

 Embedded Questions: Quiz, Class Test, Midterm Examination, Final Examination

 Rubrics: Case & Article Discussion, Individual Assignment

Group Projects & Viva’s, Case Problem analysis, Oral and written
communication presentations, Role Play,
Group Presentation, Group Project etc.

Topics / Sub -topics

Chapter detail
Learning Outcome if Details of pedagogy adopted for
Sessions / Article Reference / Case
class engagement - Class
provided session Studies
Exercises etc.
wise

Data and Statistics: Applications of statistics Class Discussion on Various

An introduction in business and economics applications of statistics in the data
driven business organizations and
Qualitative and Elements, Variables and cost of wrong decision making
Quantitative Data Observations

Cross-Sectional and Scale of Measurement

1 Time Series Data LO: 1. Students shall get a
ASW Chapter 1 practical understanding of the role
Value of Sigma and of statistics and its importance to
Business Decisions: Read: pages 3-16
derive meaning from data
1 σ to 6 σ and quality 2. They will also be able to relate
measurement the concept of Sigma and its
significance in Decision Making

Probability: Concept Experiments, counting Class Discussion on role of

2
and Enumeration rules and assigning probability in managing risk

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 Relative Frequency probabilities LO: Students shall understand the
versus Subjective role of probability in managing
Probability Approach Events and their risk and enhance decision making
probabilities

Case Problem: Hamilton

County Judges

ASW Chapter 4

Read Pages 174 to 183,

185 to 187, 189 to 193 and
196 to 200

SIP: Probability to the

Rescue

Conditional Probability Bayes’ Theorem: Tabular approach

and various numerical problems
Bayes’ Theorem Prior and Posterior
Probability LO: 1. Students will understand the
Bayesian classifiers concept of Revised Probabilities
Case Problem: Hamilton
3
County Judges Contd. 2. They will also learn to improve
prediction with Bayesian
ASW Chapter 4 Classifiers
Read Pages 204 to 208

Random Variables Extend the study of the Use of Excel functions for
and Concept of probability by introducing obtaining probability of success
Expected value the concept of random and cumulative probability
variables and probability Learn discrete probability
Discrete Probability distributions and introduce distributions with Excel
Distributions: discrete probability
Binomial Distribution distributions LO: Students will learn to estimate
4
the likelihood of an event or
Poisson Distributions ASW Chapter 5 outcome when random variables
are discrete
Read Pages 220 to 222,
224 to 226, 229, 230, 243
to 251, 254 to 256

SIP: Citibank

Continuous Use normal distribution The class discussion will be based

Probability for statistical inference on describing and showing
Distribution: Normal applications of the normal
Distribution Use normal distribution to distribution and its extensive use in
5 describe the likely results statistical inference
Normal Curve obtained
LO: 1. Students will learn to
Standard Normal Case Problem:
Probability understand the data assumption of
(Acceptable Pins) Normality and wide usage of
Distribution

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 ASW Chapter 6 Normal Distribution in Business
2. They will also be oriented with
SIP: Procter & Gamble – the Normal distribution usage in
Cincinnati, Ohio financial markets
Read Pages 272, 277 to
282

Computing Case Problem: Problem solving with real-life

Probabilities for and (Acceptable Pins Contd.) business problems like estimating
Normal Distribution the guarantee period

ASW Chapter 6 Use of Excel functions: Normal

6 Distribution
Read Pages 283 to 287,
289 to 291 LO: Students will learn to
practically understand the normal
distribution usability I business
with various managerial problems

Sampling and Random Sampling Use Excel for Random Sampling

Sampling Methods: Simple Random
Distribution: Sampling, Systematic Numerical problems on sampling
Sampling, Stratified distributions
Types of Sampling Sampling and Cluster LO: Students will understand the
Introduction to Sampling use and importance of Sampling,
Sampling Non- random Sampling Random vs Non-random Sample,
Distributions methods: Convenience meaning of Sampling Error and
Sampling, Judgement how to draw a Random Sample.
Sampling, Quota
7 Sampling and Snowball
Sampling

Case Problem: Marion

Dairies

SIP: MeadWestvaco
Corporation – Stamford

ASW Chapter 7

Read: pages Read Pages

305 to 310

Interval Estimation: Use point estimator as a Numerical problems on Interval

sample statistic to estimate estimate
Population mean- σ a population parameter
known and σ LO: Students will learn to use
8 unknown. SIP: Food Lion, Salisbury, interval estimates to provide
North Carolina information about how close the
point estimate is to the value of the
ASW Chapter 8
population parameter
Read: Read Pages 349 to

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 354

Case Discussion Gulf Real Estate Leading Questions:

Properties 1. Use appropriate
descriptive statistics to
ASW Chapter 8
summarize each of the
Read: pages 380-381 three variables for the 40
Gulf View condominiums
2. Develop a 95% confidence
9
interval estimate of the
population mean sales
price
3. What is your estimate of
the final selling price and
number of days required to
sell each of these units?
Selecting Null and ASW Chapter 9 Class Discussion:
Alternate Hypothesis, How does one decide whether to
Read Pages Read Pages Reject or Not reject the Null
Importance of Level 388 to 404 Hypothesis
of Significance, The importance of p value in
Selecting Two Tailed SIP: John Morrel and research
and Single Tailed Company, Cincinnati,
10 Test, Ohio LO 4: Students will understand
Rejection Rules: how error can be controlled in
Critical Value sampling
approach and ‘p’
value approach

Type I and Type II

Errors in Sampling

Hypothesis Testing: Use hypothesis testing to Hands-on training with JMP

determine whether a software with dataset and also use
Developing Null and statement about the value Excel worksheets to solve
Alternative of a population parameter numerical problems on hypothesis
Hypothesis, should or should not be testing with respect to large as well
rejected as small sample size
Type I and Type II
Errors Case Problem: Quality LO: 1. Students will learn to make
One-Tailed and Two Associates Inc. tentative assumptions about a
11 –Tailed tests with σ population parameter and then use
SIP: John Morrel and hypothesis testing procedure to test
known and σ Company, Cincinnati,
unknown. the two computing statements
Ohio 2. They will also learn to report the
ASW Chapter 9 results as:
Statistically significant and
Read: pages 338-365 Important (large magnitude)
Statistically significant, but
Unimportant (small magnitude)
Not statistically significant, but
Important (large magnitude)

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 Not statistically significant and
Unimportant (small magnitude)
Inferences about the Hypothesis Techniques- Hands-on training with JMP
difference between Two Sample Tests: σ1 and software with dataset and also use
two population σ2 known Excel worksheets to solve
means:
numerical problems on two
Independent Sample Two Sample Tests: σ1 and
Design population means with respect to
σ2 unknown large as well as small sample size
Matched Sample
Design SIP: U.S. Food and Drug Numerical problems on dependent
12 Administration
samples
Test statistic for ASW Chapter 10
Hypothesis test LO: Students shall learn to
Read Pages 446 to 451, hypothesize the comparison of two
454 to 458, 462 to 464 populations with respect to
independent as well as dependent
(paired) samples to provide
statistically significant results

Inferences about a Use Chi square test to Hands-on training with JMP
population Variance compare the sample software with dataset on one
variance with its population variance
13 population variance
LO: Students shall learn to
ASW Chapter 11 compare the sample with its
population if their means tend to be
Read: pages 487-494 same or unknown and make
inference
Inferences about two Use F test to compare the Hands-on training with JMP
population variances variances resulting from software with dataset on two
two different populations population variances

ASW Chapter 11 LO: Students shall learn

14 differentiating two populations
Read Pages 497-502 with respect to variability

SIP: U.S. Government

Accountability Office

Chi square test as a Use chi square distribution Hands-on training with JMP
test of independence to determine whether the software with chi square dataset
differences between
observed and expected LO: Students will learn to
frequencies summarize observed and expected
frequencies for a test of
Case Problem: A independence.
15 Bipartisan Agenda for
Change

ASW Chapter 12

Read Pages 510 to 516,

521 to 525
SIP: United Way

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 Analysis of Variance Use ANOVA to test for Hands-on training with JMP
and Experimental the equality of three or software with dataset and also use
Design: more population using Excel build in function to build
data obtained from an ANOVA
Testing for the observational study.
equality of k LO: 1. Students will learn to use to
population means Case Problem: Wentworth test the hypothesis when more than
16 Medical Center two populations are involved
Comparing the
Variance Estimates: ASW Chapter 13 2. Students will also learn how
the F test ANOVA plays a key role in
Read Pages 547 to 558 analyzing the results of regression
An Introduction to analysis
Experimental Design SIP: Burke Marketing
Services, Inc

Case Discussion Case: The Elementary Leading question:

Statistics for Medical
Students (ESMS) project Whether the drug doses have an
effect on post-treatment TBL
Data Description: In this level?
parallel group clinical Use JMP software to solve the case
trial, 606 patients were
randomized into 4 Source:
treatment groups (A,B,C https://vincentarebundock.github.io
/texmex/liver.csv
and D). Each group was
treated with a different
17 dose of drug X (A=lowest,
D=highest). All patients
underwent a liver function
test before and after the
treatment. The outcomes
include Alkaline
phosphatase, Alanine
aminotransferase,
Aspartate
aminotransferase and
Total bilirubin levels.

Simple Linear Use Regression Analysis Hands-on training with JMP

Regression: to develop an equation to software with regression dataset
understand how variables
Estimating Regression are related LO: Students will learn the
Equation Case Problem – U.S. simplest types of regression
Department of analysis involving one independent
Coefficient of Transportation
18 variable and one dependent
Determination ASW Chapter 14 variable where the relationship
Read Pages 601 to 609, between variables is approximated
Testing for
616 to 620 by a straight line
Significance: F test, t
test, multicollinearity SIP: Alliance Data
Systems
Model Assumptions

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 Multiple Regression Use the estimated Use JMP regression analysis
Model: regression equation for function to determine the total
estimation and prediction daily travel time for the drivers to
Least Square Method with more than one
develop better work schedules.
independent variables
Testing for LO: The students will learn to use
Significance multiple independent variables and
19 Case Problem: Consumer
Residual Analysis: Research, Inc. thus obtain better estimates of
Detecting outliers prediction.
ASW Chapter 15
Model Building and
Estimation: Read Pages 684 to 690,
696, 697
R2 and adjusted R2

Case Discussion: Case: Monthly natural gas Leading Objective:

Regression Analysis consumption
Use regression analysis to predict
Data description: The monthly natural gas consumption
variables include statewide in North Carolina as a function of
monthly natural gas average daily temperature and/or
consumption by end use average seasonal patterns.
20 (commercial, residential,
etc.) along with Sub objective:
temperature measures that Create dummy variables for
are simple averages of
months of the year and squared
those recorded at the values of heating and cooling
airports of the 3 largest degree-days
cities: Charlotte,
Greensboro, and Raleigh. Use JMP software to solve the case

Reading List
and Text book:
References
Statistics for Business & Economics by Anderson, Sweeney, Williams, Camm; Cochran
(along with Publication: Cengage Learning, 13th Edition, second Indian Reprint 2016
details of
year of Reference books:
Publication)
Statistics for Management by Levin, Siddiqui, Rubin, Rastogi; Hall of India ,8thEd. 2016.

Complete Business Statistics by Aczel, Sounderpandian, Saravanan & Joshi; McGraw Hill
Education, Ninth Reprint 2016

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Prepared by Faculty Team Area & Program chairpersons

Faculty Chair AOL Approved by Dean SBM

Approved by Associate Deans

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