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Biostatistics (Correlation and Regression)

Here are the estimated lengths for the given gestation times using the regression line from the data, along with an assessment of the accuracy of each estimate: (a) 2 days: Estimated length = -2.66 + 0.12*2 = -2.42cm. This estimate is not accurate as a foetus would not be measurable at 2 days gestation. (b) 60 days: Estimated length = -2.66 + 0.12*60 = 5.72cm. This estimate is accurate and close to the average length at 60 days according to the reference data. (c) 100 days: Estimated length = -2.66 + 0.12*100 = 7.

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Devyani Marathe
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65 views

Biostatistics (Correlation and Regression)

Here are the estimated lengths for the given gestation times using the regression line from the data, along with an assessment of the accuracy of each estimate: (a) 2 days: Estimated length = -2.66 + 0.12*2 = -2.42cm. This estimate is not accurate as a foetus would not be measurable at 2 days gestation. (b) 60 days: Estimated length = -2.66 + 0.12*60 = 5.72cm. This estimate is accurate and close to the average length at 60 days according to the reference data. (c) 100 days: Estimated length = -2.66 + 0.12*100 = 7.

Uploaded by

Devyani Marathe
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© © All Rights Reserved
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Deepa Anwar

Relationships between Variables


 Common aim of research is to try to relate a variable
of interest to one or more other variables.
 Demonstrate an association between variables (not
necessarily causal) eg dose of drug and resulting
systolic blood pressure, advertising expenditure of a
company and end of year sales figures, etc.
 Establish a theoretical model to predict the value of
one variable from a number of known factors.
Dependent and Independent Variables

 The independent variable is the variable which is


under the investigator’s control (denoted x).
 The dependent variable is the one which the
investigator is trying to estimate or predict (denoted y).
 Can a relationship be used to predict what happens to
y as x changes (ie what happens to the dependent
variable as the independent variable changes)?
Exploring Relationships
Scatter Plots
Correlation
 Correlation is a measure of the degree of linear
association between two numerical variables.
 The correlation is said to be positive if ‘large’ values of
both variables occur together and negative if ‘large’
values of one variable tend to occur with ‘small’ values of
the other.
 The range of possible values is from -1 to +1
 The correlation is high if observations lie close to a
straight line (ie values close to +1 or -1) and low if
observations are widely scattered (correlation value
close to 0).
 It does not indicate a causal effect between the
variables.
Correlation
Correlation
The correlation coefficient is computed as –

( xi  x )( yi  y )
r
(( xi  x ) 2 )(( yi  y ) 2 )
Additional points
 Low correlation does not necessarily mean a low
degree of association (relationship may be non-
linear).
 Method comparison studies.
 Causal effects.
Problem
If the correlation between body weight and annual
income were high and positive, we would conclude
that…
(a) High incomes cause people to eat more food
(b) Low incomes cause people to eat less food
(c) High income people tend to spend a greater
proportion of their income on food than low
income people, on average
(d) High income people tend to be heavier than low
income people, on average
(e) High incomes cause people to gain weight
Hypothesis Testing
 The linear relationship between two variables is
significant if there is evidence to suggest that r is
significantly different from zero.
 Null hypothesis: r=0
 Alternative hypothesis: r≠0
 Observed value of r has an associated p-value.
 Conclusion: if p<0.05, reject the null hypothesis and
conclude that there is evidence to suggest that there
is a linear relationship.
Summary
 Correlation () is a measure of the linear relationship
between two variables.
 It gives an actual measure of the strength of the
linear relationship seen in a scatter plot.
 Values range from –1 to +1
 The closer r is to ±1, the stronger the linear
relationship.
 Note: high correlation does not indicate a causal
effect!
 Correlation is not an appropriate measure for testing
the equivalence of two methods.
Correlation vs. Regression
Regression
 Develop an equation to predict the dependent variable
from knowledge of predictor variable(s).
 Linear regression fits a straight line to the data.
 General equation of a straight line …
y  a  bx
 Where a is the intercept and b is the slope, or gradient,
of the line.
 Fit this line by eye – subjective.
 Method of least squares.
Growth of a Foetus
Practical Example
Practical Example
 Data from a study of foetal development.
 Date of conception (and hence age) of the foetus is
known accurately.
 Height of the foetus (excluding the legs) is known
from ultrasound scan.
 Age and length of the foetus are clearly related.
 Aim is to model the length and age data and use this
to assess whether a foetus of known age is growing
at an appropriate rate.
Graphical Assessment of Data
Linear Regression Model
 From the plot it would appear that age and length are
strongly related, possibly in a linear way.
 A straight line can be expressed mathematically in
the form
y  a  bx
 Where b is the slope, or gradient of the line, and a is
the intercept of the line with the y-axis.
Modelling a Straight Line

y
y=a+bx

b
a 1 unit

x
Fitting a Regression Line
 If the data lay on a straight line and there was no
random variation about that line, it would be simple to
draw an approximate straight line on the scatter-plot.
 This is not the case with real data.
 For a given value of the explanatory variable there
will be a range of observed values for the response
variable.
 Different assessors would estimate different
regression lines.
 In order to have objective results, it is necessary to
define some criteria in order to produce the ‘best
fitting straight line’ for a given set of data.
Method of Least Squares
 Define the position of the line which, on average, has
all the points as close to it as possible.
 The method of least squares finds the straight line
which minimises the sum of the squared vertical
deviations from the fitted line.
 The best fitting line is called the least squares linear
regression line.
 The vertical distances between each point and the
fitted line are called the residuals and are used in
estimating the variability about the fitted line.
Least Squares Line

y
y=a+bx

ei
a

x
Parameter Estimates
 The least squares estimates of a and b are obtained
by choosing the values which minimise the sum of
squared deviations ei
 The sum of squared deviations is given by …
n n 2

S   ei2    yi  (a  bxi )
i 1 i 1

 Which is a function of the unknown parameters a and


b.
Interpretation of Results
 The regression equation is …
length  2.66  0.12  age
 This implies that as the age of the foetus increases
by one day, the length increases by 0.12cm.
 For a foetus of age 85 days, the estimated length
would be
length  2.66  (0.12  85)  7.51
 A prediction interval gives the range of values
between which the value for an individual is likely to
lie: (7.01 to 8.08cm).
Model Predictions
 Use the regression model to assess whether a foetus
of known age is growing at an appropriate rate
 For example, consider a foetus of age 85 days
 Does the measured length lie within the normal range
ie between 7.01 and 8.08cm?
 If measured length is <7.01cm, there is evidence that
the foetus is not growing as it should
 If measured length is >8.08cm, is the foetus larger
than expected? Is the actual age (and due date)
wrong?
Uses of Regression Lines
 The least squares regression line may be used to
estimate a value of the dependent variable given a
value of the independent variable.
 The value of the independent variable (x) should be
within the range of the given data.
 The predicted value of the dependent variable (y) is
only an estimate.
 Even though the fit of the regression line is good, it
does not prove there is a relationship between the
variables outside of the values from the given
experiment (use care in predicting).
Fitted Line
Exercise
 Use the calculated least squares linear regression
line to estimate the size of a foetus at the following
gestation times:
(a) 2 days
(b) 60 days
(c) 100 days
(d) 300 days
 For each of your estimated lengths, state whether or
not you believe the estimate to be accurate.
 Comparison data is available at:
https://www.babycenter.com/average-fetal-length-
weight-chart

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