Stock Info Market Monitor

Indian Rupee Exchange Rate

Aug 30 2010 8:25(New York)
in INR
  American Dollar 46.9484 
  Argentine Peso 11.7371 
  Australian Dollar 41.6667 
  Brazilian Real 26.6667 
  British Pound 72.4638 
  Bulgarian Lev 0.0307 
  Canadian Dollar 44.4444 
  Chilean Peso 0.0931 
  Chinese RMB 6.8918 
  Croatian Kuna 8.2034 
  Czech Koruna 2.4056 
  Danish Krone 8 
  EURO 59.5238 
  Egyptian Pound 8.2576 
  Estonian Kroon 3.8241 
  Finnish Markka 10.0402 
  French Franc 9.0992 
  Germany Mark 30.4878 
  Greece Drachma 0.1751 
  Hong Kong Dollar 6.0241 
  Hungarian Forint 0.2099 
  Iceland Krona 0.3889 
  Indian Rupee 1 
  Indonesia Rupiah 0.0052 
  Iranian Rial 0.0045 
  Ireland Pound 75.7576 
  Israeli New Shekel 12.2399 
  Italy Lira 0.0308 
  Japanese Yen 0.5556 
  Latvian Lats 84.0336 
  Malaysian Ringgit 14.9031 
  Mexican Peso 3.601 
  Netherlands Guilder 27.1003 
  New Zealand Dollar 32.8947 
  Nigerian Naira 0.3119 
  Norwegian Kroner 7.4683 
  Pakistan Rupee 0.5471 
  Philippine Peso 1.0375 
   Polish Zloty 14.9701 
  Portugal Escudo 0.2977 
  Qatari Rial 12.87 
  Romanian Leu 14.2248 
  Russian Ruble 1.5265 
  Saudi Riyal 12.5 
  Singapore Dollar 34.6021 
  South African Rand 6.3573 
  South Korean Won 0.0392 
  Spain Peseta 0.3587 
  Sri Lanka Rupee 0.4161 
  Swedish Krona 6.3371 
  Swiss Franc 45.6621 
  Taiwan Dollar 1.4635 
  Thailand Baht 1.4916 
  Turkish Lira 30.8642 
  Ukraine Hryvnia 5.9418 
  United Arab Emirates 12.7551 

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DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
31 August 2010
Tuesday
          
_____________________________________________________________________
GCI Foreign Exchange Research:         www.gcitrading.com/fxnews/
FX Research Desk:                                  fxnews@gcitrading.com
_____________________________________________________________________
 
 
 
Fundamental Outlook at 1400 GMT (EDT + 0400)
 
 
€

The euro appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$
1.2740 level and was supported around the $1.2625 level.  The common currency gave back some of last
month’s gains in August and its intramonth support was just below the 50% retracement of the $1.1880 -
$1.3335 range.  Dealers lifted the common currency to intraday highs during the North American session
before booking profits.  Data released in the U.S. today saw the June CaseShiller house price index come in
less-than-expected at 0.28% m/m and 4.23% y/y, the latest evidence of a U.S. housing market that is failing
to realize sustainable improvements after the U.S. government’s house-purchase tax incentive program
ended.  Other data saw the August Chicago purchasing manager index decline to 56.7 from the prior
reading of 62.3, a sizable decline.  Moreover, August consumer confidence climbed to 53.5 from the prior
reading of 51.0, exceeding expectations.  Minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s August
meeting were released today in which some policymakers expressed concern that the markets might
misinterpret their policy statement as an indication the Fed was ready to resume large-scale asset
purchases.  Some Fed officials speculated the economic impact of the FOMC’s decision “likely would be
quite small.”  Additionally, some Fed officials saw “increased downside risks to the outlook for both
growth and inflation” and expressed concern that additional economic shocks might cause “significant
slowing in growth.”  In remarks at the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium, Bernanke said Fed policymakers
have not agreed on “specific criteria or triggers for further action.”  In eurozone news, EMU-16 August
flast consumer price inflation ticked lower to +1.6% from the prior reading of +1.7% while the eurozone
July unemployment rate remained steady at 10.0%.  Also, German unemployment fell 17,000 in August
and remained steady at 7.6%.  French unemployment data will be released tomorrow.  Euro offers are cited
around the US$ 1.3240 level.   

¥/ CNY

The yen appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the ¥83.95 level
and was capped around the ¥84.65 level.  The pair is poised to notch its fourth consecutive monthly loss as
the yen ascends to levels not seen since mid-1995.  Traders remain underwhelmed with Bank of Japan
Policy Board’s decision yesterday to expand its bank lending program by ¥10 trillion to ¥30 trillion.   The
central bank capitulated to intense pressure from the Kan government to ease monetary policy further but
most dealers do not believe the move will have any material impact on the economy or markets.   Former
BoJ Policy Board member Nakahara said the central bank’s easing today is “too little and too late” and
argued they are “meaningless and can’t stop the yen’s advance.”  Nakahara added “Lowering the policy
rate to zero is a must to stem the yen’s gains.  The BoJ should also boost outright purchases of bonds by
another ¥500 billion.  Increased bond purchases would enable the government to generate funds for more
public works spending.  As a whole, Japan can’t live without spending by companies and the government.” 
The three-month Tokyo interbank offered rate declined to 0.36308% overnight, its lowest level since 5 July
2006, but it remains to be seen if this decline stimulates new corporate borrowing.   The central bank also
noted yesterday that downside economic risks may be increasing.  Vice finance minister Ikeda reported
unsterilized intervention “would be effective” and said the central bank should adopt a rigid inflation target
in the long-term.  Data released in Japan overnight saw August manufacturing PMI decline to 50.1 from the
prior reading of 52.8.  July industrial production was up 0.3% m/m and 14.8% y/y while July retail trade
was up 0.7% m/m and 3.9% y/y.  Also, July labour cash earnings were off 1.3% y/y and July housing starts
were up 4.3% y/y.  Moreover, August small business confidence ticked higher to 48.4 and July construction
orders were off 0.7% y/y.  The Nikkei 225 stock index lost 3.55% to close at ¥8,824.06.  U.S. dollar bids
are cited around the ¥84.60 level.   The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested
bids around the ¥106.15 level and was capped around the ¥107.75 level.  The British pound moved lower
vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested bids around the ¥128.80 level while the Swiss franc moved higher vis-
à-vis the yen and tested offers around the ¥83.20 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar appreciated vis-à-
vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8078 in the over-the-counter market, up from CNY
6.8033.  Data to be released in China overnight include August PMI manufacturing numbers followed by
August PMI services data on Friday.  People’s Bank of China official Hu Xiaolian said additional yuan
reform “will not have a key role in rebalancing bilateral trade between the U.S. and China.” Rumours that
People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou defected have proven to be unfounded and likely evidence a power
struggle within the Communist Party. 
 
£

The British pound depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested bids around the US$
1.5325 level and was capped around the US$ 1.5475 level.  Data released in the U.K. today saw July net
consumer credit print at £200 million, up from the prior reading of -£100 million, while July net lending
secured on dwellings ticked higher to 48.7.  Also, the July M4 money supply was up 0.4% m/m and 2.3%
y/y.  Data to be released in the U.K. tomorrow include August PMI manufacturing followed by August
Nationwide house prices on Thursday along with PMI services data.  Bank of England Chief Economist
Bean spoke at Jackson Hole this past weekend and said “The deleveraging process is incomplete, the
recovery remains fragile, and a considerable margin of spare capacity is yet to be worked off, while further
policy action may yet be necessary to keep the recovery on track.”  Bean also reported the central bank may
impose policies to limit the ability of borrowers to take on riskier mortgage loans.  Cable bids are cited
around the US$ 1.5115 level.  The euro appreciated vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency
tested offers around the £0.8285 level and was supported around the £0.8170 level.

CHF

The Swiss franc appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the CHF
1.0135 level and was capped around the CHF 1.0265 level.  Data released in Switzerland today saw the
July UBS consumption indicator move higher to 1.860 from the revised prior reading of 1.795.  August
PMI data will be released tomorrow followed by Q2 gross domestic product data on Thursday and August
consumer price inflation data on Friday.   Swiss National Bank member Jordan yesterday said the central
bank is closely monitoring the Swiss franc “very closely” and said Switzerland’s monetary policy situation
remains “very complex.”  Jordan also cited a “small” short-term risk of deflation.   Some traders believe
SNB may be forced to resume its franc-selling intervention to stop the euro’s sharp decline on the cross. 
U.S. dollar offers are cited around the CHF 1.0980 level.  The euro depreciated vis-à-vis the Swiss franc
as the single currency tested bids around the CHF 1.2875 level while the British pound moved lower vis-
à-vis the Swiss franc and tested bids around the CHF 1.5550 level.

Technical Outlook at 1230 GMT (EDT + 0400)

 
 
             (Bid Price)       (Today’s Intraday Range)                                
           
EUR/ USD        1.2694                1.2742, 1.2624
USD/ JPY           84.13                  84.66,   83.93
GBP/ USD        1.5335                 1.5474, 1.5326
USD/ CHF         1.0165                 1.0263, 1.0134
AUD/USD         0.8905                0.8955, 0.8859
USD/CAD         1.0656                 1.0668, 1.0574
NZD/USD         0.6973                0.7073, 0.6964
EUR/ JPY         106.83                107.76, 106.16
EUR/ GBP        0.8275                 0.8287, 0.8169
GBP/ JPY         129.01                 130.96, 128.80
CHF/ JPY           82.71                  83.18,   82.08
 
 
 
Support                        Resistance                   Support                     Resistance
 
EUR/ USD                                                              USD/ JPY
 
L1.        1.2575                          1.2870                             81.80               87.15 
L2.        1.2440                          1.3045                             80.80               88.25
L3.        1.2220                          1.3290                             77.20               89.45
 
   GBP/ USD                                                          USD/ CHF
 
L1.        1.5230                          1.5810                          1.0215                          1.0600
L2.        1.5010                          1.6040                          1.0095                          1.0820
L3.        1.4860                          1.6210                          0.9925                          1.1040
 
 AUD/ USD                                                           USD/ CAD
 
L1.        0.8645                          0.8965                          1.0450                          1.0860
L2.        0.8510                          0.9065                          1.0240                          1.1060
L3.        0.8345                          0.9220                          1.0005                          1.1490
 
 
 NZD/ USD                                                           EUR/ JPY
 
L1.        0.6910                          0.7220                          103.40                          108.90
L2.        0.6590                          0.7445                          101.15                          113.25
L3.        0.6265                          0.7585                            99.90                          118.05
 
  EUR/ GBP                                                          EUR/ CHF
 
L1.        0.7870                          0.8320                          1.2845                          1.3330
L2.        0.7785                          0.8535                          1.2650                          1.3615
L3.        0.7415                          0.8745                          1.2430                          1.3985
 
  GBP/ JPY                                                           CHF/ JPY
 
L1.        126.70                          135.35                            78.35                           82.65
L2.        123.30                          138.40                            76.45                           85.80
L3.        118.85                          140.70                            75.05                           87.15
 
 
 
 
 
SCHEDULE
 
 
Tuesday, 31August 2010
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
 
0130     Australia           July building approvals (-3.3% m/m)
0130     Australia           July building approvals (13.2% y/y)
0130     Australia           Q2 current account balance
0130     Australia           July private sector credit (0.2% m/m)
0130     Australia           July private sector credit (2.8% y/y)
0130     Australia           July retail sales (0.2% m/m)
0130     Japan               July labour cash earnings (1.5% y/y)
0500     Japan               July housing starts, annualized (750,000)
0500     Japan               July construction orders (-10.2% y/y)
0500     Japan               July housing starts (0.6% y/y)
0500     Japan               August small business confidence (48.1)
0600     CH                    July UBS consumption indicator (1.81)
0730     Italy                  August business confidence
0755     Germany           August unemployment, net change (-20,000)
0755     Germany           August unemployment rate (7.6%)
0800     Italy                  June retail sales
0830     UK                    July M4 money supply
0830     UK                    July mortgage approvals (47,600)
0830     UK                    July net consumer credit (-£100 million)
0830     UK                    July net lending secured on dwellings (£700 million)
0900     Italy                  August consumer price index
0900     Eurozone          August consumer price index, flash (1.7% y/y)
0900     Eurozonw          July unemployment rate (10.0%)
1230     Canada             June gross domestic product (0.1% m/m)
1230     Canada             Q2 gross domestic product, annualized (6.1%)
1300     US                    June Case-Shiller house prices (0.47% m/m)
1300     US                    June Case-Shiller house prices (4.61% y/y)
1345     US                    August Chicago PMI (62.3)
1400     US                    August consumer confidence (50.4)
1800     US                    Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes
2330     Australia           August performance of manufacturing index (54.4)
 
Wednesday, 1 September 2010
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
 
0130     Australia           Q2 gross domestic product (0.5% q/q)
0130     Australia           Q2 gross domestic product (2.7% y/y)
0300     NZ                    August ANZ commodity price (-0.8%)
0630     Australia           August RBA commodity price index
0730     CH                    August PMI (66.9)
0745     Italy                  August PMI, manufacturing
0750     France              August PMI, manufacturing (54.7)
0755     Germany           August PMI, manufacturing (58.2)
0800     Eurozone          August PMI, manufacturing
0800     Italy                  July hourly wages (0.1% m/m)
0800     Italy                  July hourly wages (2.5% y/y)
0830     UK                    August PMI, manufacturing (57.3)
1100     US                    MBA mortgage applications
1130     US                    August Challenger job cuts (-57.2% y/y)
1215     US                    August ADP employment change (42,000)
1400     US                    July construction spending (0.1% m/m)
1400     US                    August ISM, manufacturing (55.5)
1400     US                    August ISM, prices paid (57.5)
2350     Japan               August monetary base (6.1% y/y)
 
Thursday, 2 September 2010
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
 
0130     Australia           July trade balance (A$ 3.539 billion)
0530     France              Q2 ILO unemployment rate (9.9%)
0545     CH                    Q2 gross domestic product (0.4% q/q)
0545     CH                    Q2 gross domestic product (2.2% y/y)
0715     CH                    July retail sales (1.0% y/y)
0800     Italy                  July producer price index (0.2% m/m)
0800     Italy                  July producer price index (3.5% y/y)
0830     UK                    August PMI, construction
0900     Eurozone          Q2 gross domestic product (1.0% q/q)
0900     Eurozone          Q2 gross domestic product (1.7% y/y)
0900     Eurozone          July producer price index (0.3% m/m)
0900     Eurozone          July producer price index (3.0% y/y)
1145     Eurozone          European Central Bank interest rate decision
1230     US                    Weekly initial jobless claims (473,000)
1230     US                    Continuing jobless claims (4.456 million)
1230     US                    Q2 non-farm productivity (-0.9%)
1230     US                    Q2 unit labour costs (0.2%)
1400     US                    July factory orders (-1.2%)
1400     US                    July pending home sales (-2.6% m/m)
1400     US                    July pending home sales (-20.1% y/y)
1430     US                    August ICSC chain store sales (2.8% y/y)
2330     Australia           August performance of service index (46.6)
 
Friday, 3 September 2010
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
 
N/A       Germany           July retail sales (-0.9% m/m)
N/A       Germany           July retail sales (3.1% y/y)
0715     CH                    August consumer price index (-0.7% m/m)
0715     CH                    August consumer price index (0.4% y/y)
0745     Italy                  August PMI, services
0750     France              August PMI, services (59.9)
0755     Germany           August PMI, services (58.5)
0800     Eurozone          August PMI, services (55.6)
0800     Eurozone          August PMI, composite (56.1)