Magellan Strategies BR - Pryor Reelection in Jeopardy

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Friday August 2, 2013
CONTACT: Fred Shumate fshumate@magellanbr.com
PRYOR REELECTION IN JEOPARDY

Only 37% of Likely Voters Believe Arkansas Senator Deserves Another Term
Baton Rouge, La. Magellan Strategies BRs statewide Arkansas survey results show U.S. Senator Mark Pryors reelection campaign has a big hill to climb. When asked if Pryor had performed his job well enough to deserve another term, only 37% of likely midterm voters supported his reelection (28% definitely reelect), while 47% felt that it is time to give a new person a chance (31% definitely new person). The numbers leave little wonder why Stuart Rothenberg called Pryor the Most Vulnerable Senator of 2014. In a state that showed Blanche Lincoln the door in 2010, it looks like it might be Pryors turn next, said John Diez, Jr., Principal of Magellan Strategies BR. Although the election is still 16 months away, sitting on the same 37% where Lincoln finished cannot be good news for the incumbent. Pryors reelect number are further jeopardized by his support of key pieces of the President Obamas agenda. In particular, his support for the 2009 stimulus plan and 2010 healthcare overhaul continue to cause problems for the two-term U.S. Senator. Sixty-percent of Arkansas voters are less likely to vote for Pryor based his support for both issues. After being read a series of position statements, respondents were asked again whether Pryor deserved reelection. The incumbents support falls to 30%. In addition, the survey shows the continuing conversion of Arkansas into a fairly reliable Republican state. Although party identification numbers continue to be a mixed bag with Independent voters (41%) leading the way, the GOP holds a nearly ten-point generic ballot lead in the state. Among those identifying as Independents, the generic Republican candidate leads the Democratic candidate by 22 points. Magellan Strategies BR surveyed 1,600 likely Arkansas voters between July 30th and July 31st, 2013. The margin of error was 2.5% at a 95% confidence interval. This survey was not authorized or paid for by any campaign or political organization. The survey was conducted using automated telephone technology. Survey toplines are included below. ###
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ARKANSAS STATEWIDE SURVEY FINAL MAGELLAN ID#:ARSTW_0729 Field Date: 07/30-31/13 Q 1. Sample Size = 1,600n; +/- 2.5%
How likely are you to vote in the 2014 elections for Congress and United States Senate in the fall of next year?
EXTREMELY LIKELY TO VOTE VERY LIKELY TO VOTE SOMEWHAT LIKELY TO VOTE 89.5% 6.8% 3.6%
Thinking now about issues that are facing the nation today Q 2. Among the following list of 5 issues, which do you think is the top priority that the federal government and Congress should be addressing the most aggressively? Please listen to all options before making your choice.
THE ECONOMY AND JOBS NATIONAL DEBT AND GOVERNMENT SPENDING HEALTH CARE ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION NATIONAL SECURITY AND DOMESTIC TERRORISM 35.3% 29.3% 20.3% 9.1% 6.0%
Q 3/5. If the election for U.S Senate was being held today, and all you knew about the two candidates was that one was a Democrat and the other was a Republican, for whom would you vote?
TOTAL REPUBLICAN TOTAL DEMOCRATIC DEFINITELY REPUBLICAN PROBABLY REPUBLICAN PROBABLY DEMOCRATIC DEFINITELY DEMOCRAT UNDECIDED 47.4% 37.9% 32.0% 15.4% 6.8% 31.2% 14.7%
Q 6.
And thinking back to the 2012 election for President of the United States, did you vote for Mitt Romney, the Republican candidate or Barack Obama, the Democrat candidate?
MITT ROMNEY BARACK OBAMA SOMEONE ELSE CAN'T REMEMBER/DIDNOT VOTE 55.4% 37.2% 4.5% 2.9%
And changing topics for a second Q 7/9. Do you believe that Mark Pryor has performed his job as US Senator well enough to deserve to be reelected or do you think it is time to give a new person a chance?
TOTAL REELECT TOTAL NEW PERSON DEFINITELY REELECT PROBABLY REELECT PROBABLY NEW PERSON DEFINITELY NEW PERSON DEPENDS UNDECIDED 37.2% 46.8% 27.7% 9.5% 15.4% 31.4% 4.6% 11.4%
Now I am going to read you some more information about Mark Pryors positions on various issues. After hearing each statement, please tell me if you are more likely to support him, less likely to support him, or if it makes no difference in your opinion Q 10. Mark Pryor recently voted to support immigration reform legislation that offers amnesty to illegal aliens.
MORE LIKELY LESS LIKELY NO DIFFERENCE UNDECIDED 25.5% 54.6% 14.3% 5.6%
Q 11.
Mark Pryor has voted in support of President Obamas agenda more the 93% of the time.
Q 12.
Mark Pryor supported Obamacare which in some states has increased insurance premiums by 88% for people who buy their own health insurance.
Q 13.
Mark Pryor supported President Obamas stimulus plan, which increased government spending by 1 trillion dollars.
Now that you have heard some more information Q 14. Do you believe that Mark Pryor has performed his job well enough to deserve to be reelected or do you think it is time to give a new person a chance?
REELECT NEW PERSON DEPENDS UNDECIDED 30.2% 58.8% 5.6% 5.4%
Q 15.
Are you male of female?

MALE FEMALE 46.0% 54.0%
Q 16.
Politically speaking, do you think of yourself as a Republican, Democrat or an Independent?

REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT INDEPENDENT/OTHER 28.2% 31.1% 40.7%
Q 17.
Which of the following age group applies to you?

18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 PLUS 10.0% 13.0% 19.0% 23.0% 35.0%
Q 18.
For statistical purposes only, to what racial or ethnic group do you belong?
WHITE HISPANIC OR LATINO SOME OTHER ETHNIC GROUP 83.0% 1.8% 4.1%
BLACK OR AFRICAN AMERICAN 11.1%

Magellan Strategies BR - Pryor Reelection in Jeopardy

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Magellan Strategies BR - Pryor Reelection in Jeopardy

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FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Friday August 2, 2013

CONTACT: Fred Shumate fshumate@magellanbr.com

PRYOR REELECTION IN JEOPARDY

Follow us on twitter - @MagellanBR

Follow us on twitter - @MagellanBR

Follow us on twitter - @MagellanBR

Are you male of female?

Follow us on twitter - @MagellanBR

Politically speaking, do you think of yourself as a Republican, Democrat or an Independent?

Which of the following age group applies to you?

BLACK OR AFRICAN AMERICAN 11.1%

Follow us on twitter - @MagellanBR

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