Given that the world has meekly accepted that Israel can starve an entire population under its control to collectively punish them as part of its genocide in Gaza, it is hard to envisage an exit from this horror. But if fishing for miniscule crumbs of comfort, one could entertain faint hope for at least a temporary pause, while some may even indulge in extraordinary ill-founded optimism for a permanent ceasefire deal. But what are the chances?

For the Israeli public, the focus is understandably on securing the release of the 58 hostages reportedly left in Gaza, of whom 24 are thought to be alive. They know that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s feverish determination to intensify the Israeli military onslaught on Gaza poses a serious risk to the hostages’ lives.

Sadly, this does not appear to be the priority of the Israeli government. Netanyahu broke the January deal on March 15, ending six weeks of lower-level hostilities. Israel still killed 170 Palestinians in this period.

This is why the protests in Israel have been so vociferous and the opinion polls show that Netanyahu is not trusted to prioritize the hostages’ freedom.

Hamas has its pressures. Protests against it still take place in Gaza. Some Palestinians allege that these are inspired and organized by Fatah. Even if this is partly true, there is significant dissatisfaction with Hamas’ rule and its strategy. Many do not see Hamas as having advanced Palestinian rights or their liberation, while, through its actions, it has given Israel the opportunity to decimate Gaza.

Hamas rejects any partial deals and will only accept an agreement that provides for a permanent end to the hostilities

Chris Doyle

The Palestinians in the Strip are approaching breaking point. They have endured enough already but the Israeli siege reimposed on March 2 has now lasted more than 50 days, the longest such siege in 18 months. The impact is devastating, though a full scientific determination of how much closer the population is to famine has yet to be made.

So, how are the talks progressing? The head of Hamas’ political bureau, Khalil Al-Hayya, last week presented a comprehensive deal that essentially involved the release of all the hostages in exchange for an end to the war, the release of an agreed number of Palestinian detainees, the lifting of the siege and the start of reconstruction. This has effectively been on the table for months, ever since last July.

Israel offered a 45-day ceasefire in return for the release of 10 hostages. Hamas rejects any partial deals and will only accept an agreement that provides for a permanent end to the hostilities.

For any long-term deal, Israel demands a complete Hamas surrender. This is simply not a serious negotiating platform. Another demand of the same ilk is that Hamas gives up all its remaining weapons. Maybe there could be room for this in a deal, but how could anyone be sure that all weapons had been handed in? It is still unlikely. Hamas claims to be defending Palestinians and will just see this as surrender by another name.

If Israel and Hamas are not close to a deal, what about the brokers? One issue is that Steve Witkoff, US President Donald Trump’s key man on the issue, is also engaged in the Russia-Ukraine talks and the talks held on Iran. It is too early to say whether this erstwhile businessman has any talent for brokering such international deals to end conflicts, but the idea of sorting out three of the most serious issues on the planet in a matter of weeks would be too much for anyone.

Trump is sticking to his lines. He still parrots his plan, as he did when meeting Netanyahu for a second time early this month, that Gaza was an “incredible piece of important real estate” that should be under American control.

Palestinians still fear that the real agenda is to force them out of Gaza or to kill those who refuse — in short, ethnic cleansing or genocide

Chris Doyle

This line makes it nigh impossible for Arab brokers to move forward. Much as Egypt and Qatar would both wish to secure a sustainable ceasefire, inflammatory comments from the White House only serve to empower the most militaristic and genocidal tendencies in Netanyahu’s Cabinet, while discouraging any trust that could result in a sustainable deal. Palestinians still fear that the real agenda is to force them out of Gaza or to kill those who refuse — in short, ethnic cleansing or genocide.

European powers remain inactive, with France perhaps the exception. President Emmanuel Macron has said France will hold an international conference in June alongside Saudi Arabia. He has indicated Paris might recognize a Palestinian state. “We must move toward recognition and we will do so in the coming months,” he said. If he does, will other European powers like the UK follow suit? Only a united front will count.

The Palestinians in Gaza cannot wait. Famine is unfolding in plain sight. The humanitarian crisis is more severe than at any time over the last 18 months. More than two-thirds of Gaza is under evacuation orders and Israel is using about 30 percent of the entire Strip for buffer zones it states it will not leave.

A faint chance exists that a short-term pause may be possible. But what is really needed is a sustainable ceasefire and that looks further off with each passing day.

• Chris Doyle is director of the Council for Arab-British Understanding in London. X: @Doylech