SPC AC 200045

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0745 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

   Valid 200100Z - 201200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
   UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered strong to severe storms remain possible through this
   evening from the upper Mississippi Valley southward into northeast
   Oklahoma.

   A shortwave trough will shift northeastward out over the Dakotas and
   MN this evening, as an upper low moves northeastward across MB.
   Winds aloft will weaken over the area, though cooling aloft will
   continue spreading into the upper Great Lakes.

   At the surface, a weak front/wind shift extends from the main
   surface low over MB southward across MN and into IA, and from
   southeast KS into northwest OK. 

   The strongest cells currently stretch from the MN Arrowhead
   southward into north central IA, with primarily discrete storm mode
   along the front. Farther south, a secondary area of storms persist
   over southeast KS into northeast OK.

   Tornado watch #678 continues over northwest WI this evening, where
   low-level shear is a bit stronger. Storms across this area may
   persist for several more hours before dissipating, as temperatures
   aloft are cooling.

   Farther south, Severe Thunderstorm watches #677 and #679 continue
   along the boundary, where storms remain within the diurnal
   instability axis. Temperatures aloft are quite warm here, and storms
   should dissipate sooner than points north.  Until then, locally
   severe gusts or hail will be possible.

   For more information see mesoscale discussion #2089.

   ..Jewell.. 09/20/2024

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