Content-Length: 7224 | pFad | http://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/fx/fxus61.kgyx.afd.gyx.txt
FXUS61 KGYX 200246 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1046 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A low offshore from Cape Cod will churn in the atlantic for the next few days, bringing the chances for marine fog and a few showers tonight through the end of the weekend. Dry weather is expected early next week with more unsettled weather arriving for the second half of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... 1040 PM Update...No changes at this time. Stratus continues to gradually build inland from the immediate coast this evening. 715 PM Update...Little change to the going forecast. Will continue to watch for the development of fog this evening and perhaps a few showers. Previously... Satellite imagery shows some clouds moving onshore from a low offshore from Cape Cod. Radar is currently showing some showers just offshore from Portland. These showers are moving very slowly towards the coast. It's tough to say whether these showers actually end up making it to the coast, but there's a chance some coastal areas could see a few raindrops this afternoon. This evening will feature some more scattered showers just barely grazing the NH and southern ME coastline. Marine fog and valley fog develop overnight and continue into tomorrow morning. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... As the low offshore of southern New England retrogrades back southward, cooler and drier air from New Brunswick will move into the region and clear skies over land. The low will bring some more clouds and perhaps some fog back into the coast tomorrow night. Some leftover moisture could allow for the development of a couple small showers tomorrow night, but the rainfall amounts will be minimal. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Overview: Low pressure will begin to drift southeast over the weekend. This will slowly decrease shower chances in southern NH and ME. Impacts continue along the coast in the way of coastal flooding during high tide, dangerous rip currents and beach erosion caused by high surf. High pressure to the northeast will keep deeper moisture at bay, bringing a dry stretch through early next week. The next chance for area-wide rainfall appears to be around midweek as low pressure spins into the eastern Great Lakes. Details: With the center of low pressure set to remain outside the Gulf of Maine into the weekend, there will be a challenge on spread of showers and QPF. Currently forecast the best chance for showers to remain along the southern coast and inland across far western ME and central/southern NH Saturday daytime. NAM/Canadian regional both depict a small, weak inverted troughing feature developing across southern NH that could prolong or increase rainfall amounts. Global guidance is not picking up on this as this moment, but will keep PoPs lingering in the area albeit slight chance to chance. Also opted to lower daytime highs Sat in southern NH given more cloud cover. Extent of cloud cover is a bit more uncertain for the other two thirds of the CWA, but model soundings depict substantial mid level drying that should only keep some cu around beneath broken to overcast cirrus. Highlight for the weekend will be continuing surge and swell from the offshore low. See the below section on Coastal Flooding for more details there. Temperatures will remain in the 60s through to midweek. High pressure to the northeast will back cool, dry air into Maine. Preliminary lows fall into the 40s as well, with lower values possible should some of these nights be clear with calm winds. The next weather system to bring a chance of rain to the area arrives towards midweek. This will be another slow moving low pressure system, and there is still uncertainty on timing and how potent its source of moisture will be. The system attempts to occlude in the eastern Great Lakes, and this plus the downstream block tends to modify its translation east. So, the forecast includes a period of shower chances later this upcoming week due to this uncertain passage. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Short Term... Gradually lowering CIGs are expected along the this afternoon as low stratus moves onshore. This evening, showers and some fog develop along the coast, possibly lowering some CIGs to LIFR in more foggy coastal locations. Visibility and CIGs along the coast recover slowly through the day tomorrow. Tomorrow should be less foggy in the CT River Valley, but LEB could see some low CIGs tomorrow morning. Mostly VFR expected tomorrow but some localized lower CIGs are possible due to isolated showers. Showers continue to lower CIGS Tomorrow night and some patchy fog is possible in the valley Saturday morning as well. Long Term...MVFR ceilings improve towards VFR during the day Saturday along with the chance for SHRA at southern terminals. MVFR may work back in Sunday across a more broad area, but could remain scattered under higher cirrus. General trend should be towards VFR late weekend into early next week as high pressure pushes in from the northeast. && .MARINE... Short Term... Seas are expected to be around 2-5ft this afternoon, and strengthen this evening as a low stalls offshore from Cape Cod. Light northeasterly winds will strengthen overnight, with 25-35kt winds expected tomorrow. SCA issuance is likely tomorrow, as seas increase to 6-10 ft over open waters tomorrow afternoon, with 2-4 ft seas in Penobscot Bay. Winds remain at 20-30 kts tomorrow night. Long Term...Waves remain 6 to 10 ft over the open waters through the weekend. Waves will be lesser in the bays and harbors, but swell will still be elevated. The source low pressure system will be slowly drifting southeast, and do expect these waves to be on the downtrend as a result, but waves to 6ft may continue into mid week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... We are at the peak of our astronomical tide cycle through the weekend with the highest tides occuring during the afternoon hours. Meanwhile, a gale center will remain south of Cape Cod over the next few days. This will lead to multiple cycles of minor coastal flooding due to storm surge values approaching 1.5 feet, mainly from Portland and points south, however the Midcoast may have some minor coastal flood issues or splash- over as well by Friday afternoon. Beach surveys and Emergency Managers continue to indicate compromised dune systems along the coastline from our storms this past winter. Therefore, building nearshore waves may lead to additional splash-over or coastal flooding as well. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for MEZ023-024. High Surf Advisory from 8 AM to 7 PM EDT Friday for MEZ023-024. Coastal Flood Watch Friday afternoon for MEZ023-024. Coastal Flood Advisory from noon to 3 PM EDT Friday for MEZ025>028. NH...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for NHZ014. High Surf Advisory from 8 AM to 7 PM EDT Friday for NHZ014. Coastal Flood Watch Friday afternoon for NHZ014. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for ANZ150>154. && $$Fetched URL: http://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/fx/fxus61.kgyx.afd.gyx.txt
Alternative Proxies: