Tropical Storm ODILE
ZCZC MIATCPEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ODILE ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014 200 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014 ...HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.1N 113.5W ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM SSE OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM S OF PUERTO PENASCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SOUTH OF MULEGE HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED...AND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO SOUTH OF GUAYMAS HAS ALSO BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM MULEGE TO SAN FELIPE * MAINLAND MEXICO FROM GUAYMAS TO PUERTO PENASCO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA NORTH OF SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS TO CABO SAN QUINTIN INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ODILE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NEAR LATITUDE 29.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.5 WEST. ODILE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN ADDITIONAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ODILE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF OF THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THIS EVENING... AND MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND INTO NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED WHILE ODILE REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AFTER ODILE MOVES INLAND OVER NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...A SUSTAINED WIND OF 42 MPH...69 KM/H AND A GUST TO 59 MPH...94 KM/H...WERE REPORTED AT BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES MEXICO. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.36 INCHES... BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES MEXICO. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE COULD STILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS...AND ALSO ALONG THE COAST OF THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM NEAR SAN FELIPE AROUND TO NEAR PUERTO PENASCO. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING WAVES. RAINFALL...ODILE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF AROUND 18 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. MORE THAN 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED AT BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES MEXICO SINCE THIS MORNING. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AHEAD OF ODILE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS AROUND 9 INCHES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA...SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO...AND FAR WESTERN TEXAS INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES... ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. SURF...SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART NNNN
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